Week 17’s slate of division games closes out the regular season, with widespread playoff implications.
By: August Bottorf & Hershy Kulkarni
A pretty even week for Hershy and I — I did fantastic in the early slot, correctly betting on the Falcons to hang tough and the Bears and Ravens to blow out the backup QBs they played. This was quickly squandered by the late slot though, as Hershy and I both found out that betting against the 12-win Packers is not a wise thing to do. You’ll see below we have fixed that mistake.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00PM)
Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
O/U: 50.5
AB: The Falcons are playing some surprisingly good football for a team with a record as bad theirs, holding the Chiefs to 17 points last week and nearly taking them to overtime. Tampa is chronically inconsistent and hard to predict as a result, and I’m a little skeptical of making any real notice of their victory last week considering they played a Lions squad missing both its quarterback and its coaching staff. The Falcons are better than their record, and I think they can at least keep a divisional game with the Bucs close. Falcons +6.5.
HK: The Bucs are playing for the 5th seed with a victory here and, with Arians on record that Brady and the starters will play “to win”, they will be motivated to show up and show out. They’re fresh off a dominant 30-point victory against Detroit, who actually have a very similar team to the Falcons — both predicated on deep passing to compensate for awful defenses. Atlanta played well against the world-beater Chiefs, but that may have been a fluke. The Falcons have fielded awful defenses week after week and I expect that larger trend to continue here. Buccaneers -6.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00PM)
Spread: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 44.5
AB: The Bengals and Ravens are both heating up at surprising times — Baltimore’s late season spike has helped bring them back into the AFC playoff race and the Bengals back-to-back victories has maybe, just MAYBE, saved Zac Taylor’s job (if so, he does not deserve it). The Ravens are pretty clearly the superior team here and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them just run away with this, but Cincinnati has played good enough football the past few weeks to at least cover the very generous 12 point spread. Bengals +12.5.
HK: The Bengals are fresh off two straight victories with Ryan Finley under center. After all they’ve been through, it’s a big surprise for this team. Heading into Week 17 with victories against Houston and Pittsburgh, this team should carry some momentum. However, Vegas maintains a 12 point spread on this matchup. The Ravens are surely motivated to win this game — a victory ensures them a spot in the wild card round — but recent weeks suggest the Bengals are more frisky than anticipated. Take the points. Bengals +12.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (1:00PM)
Spread: Cowboys -2
O/U: 44.5
AB: After weeks of gnashing, the worst division in football will finally pick a victor. Dallas is technically on the verge of a playoff berth that they really (and ESPECIALLY their apathetic, behind-the-times coaching staff) don’t deserve, but I think the difference in talent here is a bit too much for the Giants to overcome. Big Blue’s supposed midseason resurgence ran out of steam pretty quickly, and the myriad of weapons at Dallas’s disposal should make things fairly easy for them. Cowboys -2. (LOCK)
HK: Dallas are suddenly the NFC East favorites and need a win and a Washington Football Team loss to clinch. As long as Washington remains at less than full strength, the Cowboys are the most playoff-ready team entering this week. It’s a surprising turnaround for a team that looked absolutely hapless after losing Dak for the year. In this matchup, the Cowboys are better than the Giants in nearly every statistic over the past 5 games. The Giants have also lost their last 3 ATS matchups, while the Cowboys have won their last 3. With both teams playing all out and needing a win to survive, the better team will win. Cowboys -2
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (1:00PM)
Spread: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
AB: The Dolphins are a good team, with an opportunistic defense and a coach from the Belichick tree finally living up to standards. Buffalo, on the other hand, is arguably the best team in the NFL right now, riding off the high of back-to-back blowout victories and outgunning any team in their path. In any other circumstance I would bet the house on Buffalo- but with the Steelers resting most of their most important starters and the Bills holding tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, it doesn’t seem like Buffalo has much to play for. Expect Allen to take a seat after a quarter or two, and the Dolphins to win a must-win game against backups. I would avoid betting on this game at all because we really do not know when Buffalo seats their starters, but for the record- Dolphins +3.
HK: With the Patriots’ dynasty seemingly shut, the AFC East is finally, finally up for grabs. This game is a premonition for future matchups between these two promising divisional rivals. Both teams have a lot to play for. The Dolphins can clinch a wild-card matchup with a win, while the Bills can clinch home-field advantage. However, the expectation is that Buffalo sits their starters after a half and looks towards next week. Ultimately, if Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs suit up in this game, the Bills should cover. But with the Bills able to clinch the two seed with a Steelers’ loss (who are suiting up Mason Rudolph at QB), I expect Sean McDermott to play it safe with his star duo and keep them out. This will allow Miami a foothold into the game. Miami has a strong run game and a defense exceptional at creating turnovers, suiting them well against a turnover-prone quarterback in poor weather conditions. Dolphins +3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (1:00PM)
Spread: Vikings -7
O/U: 53.5
AB: The Vikings functioning as a primarily offensive team this season has been pretty surprising, and I would not have predicted this game to be a shootout going into the week, but with Minnesota missing quite a few starters and a Detroit defense that stinks even when it is healthy, that’s what this game is shaping up to be. Injuries to Stafford could hurt Detroit’s chances, but I think this is a high scoring game that comes down to a last-second touchdown on at least one side. Take the over. Lions +7.
HK: Matthew Stafford may be hobbled, with injuries to his thumb and ankle, but against a decimated Vikings defense playing without LB Eric Kendricks, CB Cameron Dantzler, and DEs Jalyn Holmes and Ifeadi Odenigbo, the Lions decision-makers (such as they are) are actually looking at a surprisingly decent matchup. Since Bevell has taken over the Lions offense, it has looked far sharper and competent than before (last week’s trouncing at the hands of the Bucs excluded). Stafford back against this defense will be a plus matchup, and the absence of Dalvin Cook can help prevent the Lions’ from getting gashed on defense. Lions +7
New York Jets at New England Patriots (1:00PM)
Spread: Patriots -3
O/U: 39.5
AB: A different season could have made this matchup determinative in a tight race for a Wild Card spot, but it was not to be. Belichick’s Patriots seem listless and lost and for the first time in living memory, and yet somehow, against all odds, Adam Gase’s Jets have a 2 game winning streak. Their excellent interior pass rush and some surprisingly efficient games from Sam Darnold (who for the record, is not beyond saving) have carried New York to a pair of victories. It’s possible Belichick just outsmarts the obviously inferior Gase, but I’m not sure the 6-time champ really cares about that right now. Jets +3.
HK: Both teams are irrelevant this year and have no true incentive of playing quality football in Week 17. However, a deeper dive illustrates some interesting points. First, there’s intrigue about Adam Gase’s future as a potential QB coach for the Patriots. He will want to have a bag of tricks available to try and impress his potentially future boss across the field. Expect creativity and special teams aggression throughout the game as Gase looks to make his final statement before the inevitable firing. The Patriots, meanwhile, will limp to end this season with a losing record, the first time since 2000. Cam Newton has some personal investment here. He’s currently tied with the franchise rushing record for quarterbacks, and 2 short of his own NFL record-setting 14 touchdown season in 2011. Despite these relatively uninteresting records, he’s a quarterback that is auditioning not even for a starting role, but for a roster spot, in 2021. His season has been nothing short of disastrous and the league’s hesitation to offer him a sizable contract this offseason looks smart in hindsight. In terms of real matchups, there’s pretty much nothing interesting to note about a horrendous Jets team matched up against a pedestrian Patriots team. Simply put, the Patriots are better and will likely end up with the win. Patriots -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (1:00PM)
Spread: Browns -8.5
O/U: 42.5
AB: This is a weird, WEIRD game, with Pittsburgh deciding a fan-less home-field advantage isn’t worth risking their starting quarterback for. TJ Watt and the Steelers’ excellent pair of defensive tackles will also rest, while Cleveland will be missing their offensive line coach and cornerback Denzel Ward. It’s a bizarre matchup to try and bet on, but if there’s one thing we can learn very well from last week, it’s that Mason Rudolph is just a terrible terrible quarterback. It would be very Browns-y to almost lose to a team that’s barely trying, but Rudolph is so awful I don’t think it happens. Browns -8.5
HK: The Browns bring their receivers back from the COVID list for this season opener, matched up against Mason Rudolph and a starting squad of mostly backups. The Steelers need both a victory and a Bills loss to leapfrog into the number 2 spot, lending credence to Tomlin’s Week 17 strategy. Expect many of their starting WR’s to sit or play limited snaps as well. While Cleveland still has a path to the playoffs if they lose (Colts loss), Kevin Stefanski will undoubtedly coach for an outright victory and control their destiny. This is the easiest scenario for the Browns and the resting of Big Ben and (most likely) JuJu Smith-Schuster will contribute to a simple matchup for Baker and the Browns. Browns -8.5
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (1:00PM)
Spread: Titans -7.5
O/U: 56.5
AB: The Titans need to win this game- after an ugly loss to Green Bay, Tennessee likely needs to win to get into the postseason. Good for them, their run-focused offense is going to play a Texans defense that would give up 80 ground yards to a high schooler. Houston is awful, genuinely awful right now, and their defense is so full of gaping holes I would be shocked if Tennessee punted before the 4th quarter. I play against Derrick Henry in fantasy this week. Deshaun Watson deserves better. Titans -7.5
HK: This game comes down to a single matchup. Derrick Henry, the NFL rushing leader, against the 31st ranked Texans rush defense. The Titans may have squandered much of their playoff chances in their blowout loss to Green Bay in prime-time, but they still have a glimmer of hope with a win and something real to play for. The Texans, meanwhile, are limping into the offseason with no pride or competence — JJ Watt echoed this last week. Expect the Titans to deploy a run-dominant game design with blow-out potential early. Titans -7.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (4:25PM)
Spread: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 40.5
AB: Can Arizona lose back-to-back games against backup quarterbacks? With the Rams boasting one of the nastiest defenses in football and the Cardinals playing shockingly below their talent level, its not out of the question. I have no idea what to make of “The wolf of Ball Street,” John Wolford, but we will be seeing a hampered Murray playing against the NFL’s best defensive player of the modern era. It’s not controversial to propose that Kliff Kingsbury is not half the coach that Sean McVay or Brandon Staley are, and given that the Rams could miss the playoffs if they lose, I think Los Angeles keeps it close. Rams +3.5.
HK: Conventional wisdom suggests to not bet on a team without their starting quarterback in a relatively meaningless game. And yet, here I am, suggesting that the Rams will cover this football. Sure, they’re down to backup John Wolford, a man who still had an active Linkedin in case the whole “football thing” didn’t work out. Still, both teams are incredibly motivated to win this game. It will be played at the same time as the Chicago-Green Bay game, meaning that all four teams have something to play for, without the benefit of observing the other matchup. Just because Goff is out doesn’t mean McVay won’t try everything to get the outright victory and play spoiler here. The line in this game shifted from Rams -1 to Cardinals -3.5 on the news, but Kyler Murray’s own injury suggests an overreaction by Vegas. I’m confident this will be a competitive matchup, despite the circumstances. Rams +3.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (4:25PM)
Spread: Packers -5.5
O/U: 50.5
AB: I cannot remember the last time I was both this excited and nervous for a game. The Bears need a win and they’re in. The packers are playing for a first round bye that they could stand to lose to either New Orleans or Seattle. The first matchup between this two teams was the debut of the ‘new’ bears offense, and it was a rough, rough outing, as Green Bay moved the ball effortlessly on the Chicago defense, and forced their run-centric offense out of its comfort zone. With Akiem Hicks returning and the Packers losing all-pro tackle David Bakhtiari I really, really want to bet Chicago here, but I just can’t. Mitch Trubisky is all-over-the-place as a QB, but he has been pretty mediocre against Mike Pettine’s defense. Even with Hicks returning, I think the insane connection between Rodgers and Adams once again lets Green bay move the ball without effort. I really hope I’m wrong. But I’ve seen this film before, and I didn’t like the ending. Packers -5.5.
HK: I’ll be honest. I really wanted to take Chicago +5.5 here. They’re the clear underdogs here, but after the Bears defense was absolutely trashed by Aaron Rodgers a couple weeks ago in their first matchup, there was little chance the prideful Bears would let it happen again. That is, until rookie CB Jaylon Johnson was announced as inactive in this matchup. It’s a huge threat to any ability for Chicago to slow Rodgers & Adams. Starting cornerback Kyle Fuller, while excellent, only covers his side of the field. All Aaron Rodgers needs to do to exploit the matchup between Adams and whatever backup cornerback Chicago trots out there is to shift Adams to the other side of the field. The connection between Rodgers & Adams is nearly unstoppable this year, and the Bears won’t have a fighting chance. Having Akiem Hicks back will help the defense shore up against the run, but ultimately it will be meaningless. The Bears will have to hope John Walford can pull off the unexpected. Packers -5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (4:25PM)
Spread: Colts -14
O/U: 49.5
AB: Good lord the Jaguars are awful. Really really bad. They’re missing star rookie running back James Robinson, WR1 DJ Chark, and they have officially locked up the number one overall pick. There is absolutely no reason to expect ANYTHING from this terrible Jags team this game. And yet, I just have a feeling about this game. I can’t explain it, but I think Jacksonville at least puts some effort into playing spoiler against a Colts team that may be paying more attention to other AFC matchups than their own. Jaguars +14.
HK: The Jaguars enter this matchup with a locked-in 2nd overall draft pick. Meanwhile, the Colts are playing for a chance at a wild-card matchup. They no longer control their own destiny after fumbling the bag against Pittsburgh last year, but they absolutely need a win here to have any possibility of advancing. The talent disparity is significant as well. The Colts have been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year, but they certainly have the talent to cover a two touchdown spread against this hapless team. If the Bears could do it, the Colts can definitely do it. Colts -14
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (4:25PM)
Spread: Raiders -2.5
O/U: 50.5
AB: Drew Lock playing against the Las Vegas defense is the definition of a stoppable force crashing into a moveable object- Vegas is fresh off an all-time defensive breakdown against Ryan Fitzpatrick of all players, and Lock’s offense has put up a combined 25 points over Denver’s last 2 games. Denver needs a quarterback and the Raiders need a defense could be issues pulled exactly from 3 years ago and haven’t changed. Denver’s D is still good, but in a situation like this I’ll take the team who at least at one point looked posed to make the playoffs.
Raiders -2.5.
HK: Both teams continue to display mediocrity on a week-by-week basis. Denver seems hamstruck by a dearth of talent on either side of the football, but have overachieved given those circumstances. The Raiders, on the other hand, have completed a magnificent meltdown unlike anything ever seen before. It feels like eons ago, but this is the same Raiders team that beat the Chiefs in Week 5. Since then, they’ve gotten blown out by the Falcons and Colts and have lost 5 of the last 6 games. It’s a real wonder why Gruden isn’t truly on the hot seat ($100m contract notwithstanding). One thing is clear: neither Drew Lock nor Derek Carr are the long-term solutions at these respective franchises. Until those teams realize it, they’ll keep floundering in similar situations. Because these are both unremarkable teams, conventional wisdom suggests taking the points. Broncos +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (4:25PM)
Spread: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
AB: This basically a preseason game for the Chiefs, as Patrick Mahomes will be resting and quite a few Kansas City starters likely to leave the game before its over. Justin Herbert’s Chargers are not a great team, but at least they actually care about winning this game. Chargers -3.5.
HK: The Chiefs will be resting their starters in this game, with the number one seed locked up. Chad Henne will start in place of Patrick Mahomes, creating a very “preseason” mindset here. Meanwhile, Herbert and the rest of the Chargers will play out Week 17 and play for pride. It shouldn’t be a difficult challenge for Herbert, as their offense is already explosive against starting squads week-in and week-out. Chargers -3.5 (LOCK)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (4:25PM)
Spread: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47.5
AB: The Saints are a really good team, and look like a threat to challenge pretty much anyone going into Week 17. However, the engine of their offense that rained hellfire on the Vikings last season was a COVID close contact, and so New Orleans will be starting former Packer Ty Montgomery at running back this game. Carolina is a bad team and I don’t think they end up winning, but with Kamara out the feisty panthers should be able to keep it close. Panthers +6.5.
HK: The Saints, with a win, could solidify their 2nd seed and home-field advantage and opens the door for potentially leapfrogging Green Bay for the 1st seed with a Packers loss. In short, they have a lot to play for here. There have been concerns about the Saints’ ability to score, but after a 52 point showing against Minnesota and Alvin Kamara’s career-defining performance, these concerns have been put to bed. With Green Bay standout LT David Bakhtiari out for the season, the road to the Super Bowl could very well go through New Orleans and on the shoulders of Kamara. However, with Kamara and the rest of the RB’s out with COVID, it is very likely the Panthers can stay just within the margin. Panthers +6.5.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (4:25PM)
Spread: Seahawks -6.5
O/U: 46.5
AB: The 49ers are hot off a fantastic upset of the Cardinals with a third string quarterback in, but Pete Caroll’s Seahawks are a much scarier team then Kingsbury’s Cardinals. The Seahawks defense has tightened up quite a bit since their awful start, and while Russell Wilson isn’t the MVP frontrunner he was in week 5 he’s still more than capable of handling things for Seattle’s offense. Without a starting quarterback in the lineup I don’t think the 49ers are able to do much of anything on offense, and I suspect they stall out hard. Seahawks -6.5.
HK: The Seahawks enter the game with a chance at snagging the 2nd seed (or even a 1st) with a win and a Saints loss. The Niners, however, look to play spoiler as they match up against a fierce rival. You have to assume Kyle Shanahan will get his team ready to go and motivated to give Seattle a crushing loss right before the playoffs. While the Niners won’t have anything tangible to play for, spoilers often win these kinds of matchups. CJ Beathard looked quite good in his start last week, running the offense with competence and poise. He should be able to do similar things this week and keep the team competitive. Niners +6.5
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (8:20PM)
Spread: Football Team -1.5
O/U: 43.5
AB: I mentioned “stoppable force vs moveable object” earlier in this piece, and nothing is a better example of that principle than watching Taylor Heinicke playing an Eagles defense this battered. Hurts has provided some spark to Philadelphia, but Washington’s vicious defensive front ran roughshod over the Eagles offensive line in Week 1 and I expect them to do the same here. Heinicke didn’t look awful in his short stint last week, and “not awful” should be more than good enough against a Philadelphia defense missing almost everyone and a coordinator already thinking about retirement. WFT -1.5.
HK: This pick-em matchup is extremely difficult to assess. Both teams are playing with significant injuries and are far from full strength. Yet, only Washington requires a victory to maintain their playoff hopes. Washington is the only team in the NFC East to control their destiny in Week 17 and will do everything in their power to take care of business. It is why they’re attempting to force Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Alex Smith into the lineup in this must-win game. On the other side, the Eagles sport this injury report:
Ultimately, it’s clear that Philly is packing it in for Week 17. WFT -1.5
Our Card:
AB: Steelers/Browns Under, WFT -1.5.
HK: Chargers -3.5, Niners +6.5
Cumulative Record:
AB: 29–37–1 (.432)
HK: 32–41–1 (.432)
