Sneaky Deep: Evaluating the Top 4 Linebackers of 2020
By: Carter and Hershy Kulkarni
When NFL offenses were predicated on downhill running and lead fullback play, having a large imposing figure in the middle of the defense used to be critically important, creating legends like Dick Butkus and Ray Lewis. However, spread concepts have since infiltrated NFL offenses. According to Football Outsiders, in 2011, 16.8% of offensive plays were run with fullbacks. By 2015, only 8% were called. Now, offenses have replaced fullbacks for an additional receiver or U tight end. The goal? Stretch defenses vertically and horizontally — the premise of spread offenses that, these days, nearly every NFL team has adopted in some fashion. To deal with this new offensive revolution, gone are the days of Butkus and Lewis. Instead, defenses need linebackers that can match up well with versatility and ranginess. Specifically, linebackers need to be proficient in:
Coverage
Linebackers are ever increasingly asked to cover tight ends or wide receivers, requiring strong man-to-man and zone coverage skills and its requisite speed.
Run support
As long as running backs exist in the NFL, linebackers will be asked to gap fit and attack holes to stop rushing attacks. This requires excellent vision, athleticism, and strength to shed blockers.
Tackling
Virtue of their positioning on the field, linebackers have the most opportunities to make tackles on defense. As such, sure tackling and pursuit are vitally important to the evaluation of linebackers. Pretty self-explanatory category.
Versatility
While offenses attempt to outwit defenses with pre-snap motions, speed, and spread concepts, defenses utilize exotic coverages, blitzes, and alignments to confuse opposing quarterbacks. This can’t be done without players being able to play multiple positions and roles depending on the play. NFL GM’s covet this trait highly, and rightfully so.
In this article, we will rank four of the most intriguing linebacker prospects in 2020 along these dimensions.
1. Isaiah Simmons
Clemson, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’4” | Weight — 238 lbs | Wingspan — 33 ⅜” | Hands — 9 ⅝”
40 Yard Dash — 4.39 seconds | Vertical Jump — 39.0 inches | Broad Jump — 132 inches
2019 Stat Line: 104 tackles, 67 solo, 7 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 3 interceptions
Every once in a while, a prospect comes along that is so extraordinary, so talented, so incredibly gifted that you run the risk of losing objectivity and slipping into slavish devotion. Isaiah Simmons has that effect on me. The 6’4”, 238 pound linebacker (safety? edge rusher? CORNERBACK?) is partially a product of freak genetics and the efforts of mad scientist Brent Venables, but at the end of the day, Simmons makes a compelling case that he’s not only the ‘backer with the highest potential, but in fact, is the most NFL-ready out of the entire class. He’s a heat-seeking missile defending the rush, a source of terror for tackles and tight ends blocking him off the edge, and perhaps most importantly, has shown the ability to play in deep coverage against wide receivers of every shape and size. With the right team, Isaiah Simmons will be a positionless perennial Pro Bowler that forces opposing offenses to specifically game-plan against him every single week. With the wrong team, Simmons will be forced into a box, and will be a tragedy of wasted potential. If you’re an NFL GM somehow reading our shitty blog on draft day, here’s my advice: draft Isaiah Simmons. Trade your picks and your players and your family, if necessary, so you can be in position to draft and build around Isaiah Simmons.
Simmons is very effective playing in coverage. He’s fast enough and adept enough to cover X receivers down the field and can be asked to wrangle with receivers on routes over the middle of the field. Additionally, he locks down running backs coming out of the backfield well.
On this play against LSU early in the National Championship Game, Simmons covers tight end Thaddeus Moss out into the flat and breaks up the pass after making up the ground quickly.
He has strong fundamentals, using his hands and angling his shoulders to stay with receivers on deep routes in man coverage; in zone coverage, he gets depth, reads the quarterback’s vision, and covers ground quickly to make big plays like this one in the Fiesta Bowl, where he got all the way from the middle of the field to the sideline to grab the interception.
He does have room for improvement, and if an NFL team wants to put him on receivers in man coverage and in position to deflect passes over the middle in zone coverage, they will have to work on his footwork and improve his ability to diagnose plays. He does have the tendency to try and do too much, relying on his athletic advantage to make up for mistakes in positioning instead of minimizing the physical work he has to do on any given play. That can allow daylight for quarterbacks to make throws in his region of the field, like the play Justin Fields makes here in the first quarter of the same game against Ohio State.
He plays the inside runs in the A and B gaps pretty well, but he can commit too hard to one side and be stopped by competent offensive lineman with the strength to keep him at bay. The Tigers gave up two massive rushing plays to J.K. Dobbins in the first half of that game, both made possible by blocking on Simmons. The good news is he often draws double teams, which opens up opportunities for his teammates on the front seven to make plays. He can be fooled at the mesh point on option plays, frequently committing to the back and letting athletic QB’s rush by him. With all that being said, coming off the edge against the run, he can be an absolute nightmare, blowing by tackles to stop running backs for big losses, like on this play in the National Championship Game, where he almost gets Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the end zone for a safety.
The same is true when he is used on blitzes, finding holes to attack and wreaking havoc against tight ends and running backs. Most lineman are only capable of forcing him back and around, and he shows the signs of a decent swim move to get inside, though he hasn’t needed it much in college.
Like any rookie, Simmons is also prone to some mental errors. On simple zone assignments, he can get carried away with coverage on one player and forget to hand them off to the next zone defender, accidentally double covering him while leaving a receiver wide open. This happened against North Carolina.
His strength as a tackler is not so much about his technique (which could probably be improved), but about his closing speed in space. He runs downhill and can make diving tackles at the feet or can use his strength to pull rushers down at the pad level. He uses his length like an NBA defender to keep guys in front of him and then chasing them down like a lion attacking its prey.
There is no obvious comp for Simmons, as he is a rare mix of talent at three (four?) different positions. In my opinion, his appeal is very similar to that of Derwin James, who faced similar questions about where he would line up on an NFL roster, and has since been extraordinarily successful for the Chargers. Simmons is larger, and looks more like an ILB/SS combo than a CB/FS combo, but teams should take lessons from the way Anthony Lynn has used James when they’re trying to decide where the Clemson product should slot in.
Overall, Isaiah Simmons is clearly the most talented linebacker in this draft, and will almost certainly be a top-ten pick. Expect to hear the phrase “swiss-army knife” coming out of analysts’ mouths tonight, and again when he takes the field for his rookie season. It’s not inaccurate at all.
2. Kenneth Murray
Oklahoma, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’2” | Weight — 241 lbs | Wingspan — 34 ¾” | Hands — 9 ½”
40 Yard Dash — 4.52 seconds | Vertical Jump — 38.0 inches | Broad Jump — 129 inches
2019 Stat Line: 102 tackles, 59 solo, 4 sacks
Kenneth Murray is a four star recruit from Texas that came onto the scene immediately. As a freshman, he racked up Freshman All-American Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year accolades as a 14 game starter. After a prolific 2018 season with 155 tackles, Murray’s numbers fell a little bit in 2019, but he showed scouts his playmaking ability more than ever before. Murray’s game is predicated on sideline to sideline speed and gap-shooting. While he’s likely never going to be a great coverage linebacker, Murray can have success in the NFL without it. He displays gap fit knowledge and his speed and strength for the position is evident with elite pursuit and tackling ability. Demonstrating high character off the field, Murray offers the total package to NFL teams looking for sheer explosion in one of their interior linebacker positions.
Here is what Kenneth Murray is not. Murray is not an excellent coverage linebacker like Isaiah Simmons. Murray won’t line up on your tight end or slot receiver and hold his own (at least not on Day 1). Murray, on occasion, will overshoot or take bad angles, giving the ball carrier a cutback lane. Murray isn’t particularly great at shedding blocks, either. Despite all of that, Kenneth Murray is one of the best linebackers in the NFL Draft and worthy of a 1st round draft pick. Why? Kenneth Murray’s game is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and, my lordy, it is quite the game.
Murray’s value is predicated on excellent run support. Murray is the best in the draft at shooting gaps with confidence and routinely making plays through traffic. Watch Murray sort through all the garbage and meet the running back at the line of scrimmage. He finishes it with a strong tackle and prevents the running back from cutting towards the sideline.
Here, Murray shows off his elite speed and instincts, meeting the ballplayer incredibly quick at the line. Yes, he was untouched here, but note the physical traits that make this still an impressive TFL.
On this play, note Murray’s football IQ at work, anticipating the run prior to the snap. By the time the running back has even gotten the ball, Murray, moving at breakneck speed, is already at the line of scrimmage. From there, he does a great job of shedding a block and finding the gap for a TFL.
While Murray can sometimes struggle with shedding blocks in pass-rush & blitz situations, his abilities in run-stopping make him starter material as a rookie. As his career progresses in the NFL, his strength and technique will improve.
Murray is also an athletic tackler with excellent pursuit skills. His play recognition and speed allows him to meet the ball carrier before even the Will linebacker can get there, as he does here.
This is exactly the sideline-to-sideline ability that GM’s salivate over. Having a player like Murray on your defense gives the defensive coordinator flexibility to, for example, drop more players into coverage or create exotic blitzes. Murray will be a safety blanket to allow coordinators to be more creative, an absolute must in a time where offense is emphasized. You have to be able to chase down Lamar Jackson and bring down Derrick Henry when he gashes up the middle. Murray shows the potential to handle all of these responsibilities.
In the NFL, Kenneth Murray projects as an inside linebacker (3–4), mike linebacker, or will linebacker (4–3). He has the leadership abilities and football IQ to play inside long-term, but for a team with a strong inside linebacker already, Murray would be an embarrassment of riches for that defense, where he’d be an immediate starter at Will as a rookie.
The best comp to Kenneth Murray is Deion Jones of the Atlanta Falcons (coincidentally, one of his rumored best fits in the draft at #16). Both of their games are predicated on elite speed and athletic ability as downhill linebackers. While Murray and Jones have issues shedding blocks and aren’t known for coverage ability, in the right scheme, Murray’s immense potential can be unlocked like Jones’ has in Dan Quinn’s defense.
3. Patrick Queen
LSU, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’0” | Weight — 229 lbs | Wingspan — 31 ⅝” | Hands — 10”
40 Yard Dash — 4.50 seconds | Vertical Jump — 35.0 inches | Broad Jump — 125 inches
2019 Stat Line: 85 tackles, 37 solo, 3 sacks, 1 interception
LSU had a big hole to fill when Butkus Award winner Devin White left for the league last year, but was fortunate to maintain their elite defense, in part, because Patrick Queen took such a significant leap in between his sophomore and junior seasons. Queen sat behind White for two seasons, waiting for his number to be called, and in his first year as a starter he showed real improvement on run fits, the one missing piece in his game. Deciding between Murray and Queen was the central dilemma in ranking these four prospects. In the end, we found that Murray is the more proven polished player and can start on day one, where Queen is a little bit more of a project, but there’s a real argument to be made that Queen has a higher ceiling.
He has excellent speed for the position, which he uses in a variety of ways. He stays with receivers and running backs, (there’s a lot of tape of Queen playing nickel and dime), converts it to power when he’s attacking the line, and covers ground to make tackles in space. He is an effective tackler, successful at wrapping up power backs and shifty QBs alike. Ultimately, he has a lot of upside and the instincts to play at a high level, he just needs further development from a good coach to turn him into a star.
In coverage, he shows flashes of brilliance but is maddeningly inconsistent. Because he does not have 99th percentile size for the position, this is where he theoretically has the potential to be really valuable. He stays with quick slot receivers in man coverage and is competitive at the catch point, but does not have the agility or football IQ to always be in the right position in zone coverage. On this play against Florida, he is in the ZIP code of the receiver, but if he had gotten a little more depth, he would have been in position to break up the play.
Against the run, his tape was a mixed bag. He has elite instincts but he needs to improve his physical tools to be fully effective. For an example of those instincts, let’s turn to the game that quarterback Joe Burrow has identified as a sort of turning point for the Tiger season, their September game against Texas in Austin. The Longhorns worked their way down to the red zone on their opening drive and had a first and goal on the 4 yard line. On both second and third down, Queen broke through the maze of humans to find the ball carrier, first quarterback Sam Ehlinger on the draw and then the running back, both times stopping them right before they managed to punch it in.
As a tackler, Queen plays with great aggression, forces players down quickly, and rarely allows guys out of his grip. He is awesome at shedding blocks and getting in position to make tackles, which you could see on the Texas plays. The flip side of that is he can be blocked at the second level without much difficulty and is occasionally a step behind the play, but the raw tools are there for him to be competent. Here’s an example where he loses his ability to move with the play and is a second too late to stop the long run.
Ultimately, Queen’s biggest advantage is his versatility. He has the size to play ILB, the speed to be a starting Will, and the intelligence to be a starting Mike. He lined up in multiple different formations (base, stack, nickel, dime) for LSU and was a factor in all of those roles. In the modern NFL, there’s a lot of room for a guy like Patrick Queen to be successful. A fair comp for him is Roquan Smith, a smart, fast, rangy guy who covers well and really filled a hole on a Chicago unit that already had guys that were more physically imposing.
4. Logan Wilson
Wyoming, Senior (Age 23)
Measurables:
Height — 6’2” | Weight — 241 lbs | Wingspan — 32 ⅜” | Hands — 9 ½”
40 Yard Dash — 4.63 seconds | Vertical Jump — 32.0 inches | Broad Jump — 121 inches
2019 Stat Line: 105 tackles, 62 solo, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 interceptions
A two star wide receiver recruit out of high school, Logan Wilson was only offered one scholarship from Wyoming, under the condition that he sign as a safety. In his transition to linebacker, Wilson took advantage of those coverage skills in taking his game to the other side of the ball. As a freshman, Wilson was a 14 game starter and Mountain West Conference Freshman Year. His sophomore and junior years were even more productive, on the way to racking up All-MWC honors. He finished a solid senior year and was named third-team Associated Press All-American. Despite being from a relative unknown school, Wilson offers plenty of potential to NFL defenses. While he isn’t among the same caliber of players as Simmons, Queen, or Murray, his upside as a future starter in the NFL makes him an intriguing gem of the draft.
Wilson’s biggest strength is his tackling. Potentially the best tackler in this draft, he has excellent technique, burst, and bend attacking the ball. Despite having 4.6 speed, Wilson plays faster and can be a missile attacking ball carriers.
Watch him chasing down the running back at Boise State. Wilson shows impressive pursuit abilities and finishes the play with an athletic tackle near the sideline.
He does it again later in the game. Wilson is no Queen or Murray when it comes to blazing speed, but he’s got sneaky quickness closing on ball carriers and can lay out some big hits.
Wilson also shows his athleticism making open field tackles, like this San Diego State game. Matched up on a shifty BJ Busbee, Wilson makes an excellent solo TFL.
But perhaps Logan Wilson’s most underrated skillset is his in coverage. As a former wide receiver and safety, Wilson shows live ball skills. Heck, Wilson had 4 interceptions and 7 pass deflections in 2019! For a linebacker known for big hits and thumping ability, that is quite impressive. Watch this play against Boise State, where he shows better-than-expected hip fluidity and vision, making a good play on the ball.
As sort of an odd mix of talents, Logan Wilson is hard to evaluate. In some ways, Wilson represents the old guard of linebackers — a big, attacking linebacker policing the line of scrimmage. In other ways, Wilson offers versatility as a talented zone coverage defender. He’s also hard to evaluate because Wilson plays at Wyoming, a team that plays in a division whose best team is Boise State. Needless to say, playing against some of the most anemic offenses in the country makes it difficult to project Wilson to the next level. He would have certainly benefited greatly from in-person visits to NFL team headquarters. Unfortunately, COVID-19 has rendered that unfeasible. While that will unfortunately cause him to fall in the draft, he nonetheless possesses ability as a future starter in the NFL. His best fit will be at inside linebacker (3–4) or mike linebacker (4–3) due to his size, coverage ability, and ranginess.
A natural comparable to his game is Nick Kwiatkowski, the newly minted starting linebacker for the Oakland Raiders after signing a 3 year, $21m dollar contract. Both play as heat-seeking missiles attacking gaps. While Wilson probably offers more in coverage than Kwiatkowski, Kwiatkowski still offers a likely blueprint for Wilson in the future — starting his career as a special teams stud before working his way into the lineup with time in NFL film rooms.
While pundits have criticized the linebacking class of 2020 as top-heavy and weak overall, we believe the position group is one of the strongest in the entire draft. From top to bottom, there are athletic players that fit the new archetype of linebacker. After reviewing these 4 of the most compelling linebackers in the draft, two (Simmons, Queen) offer the highest ceilings and potential as dynamic gamebreakers. The other two (Murray, Wilson) offer teams plug-and-play ability and have a proven and honed skill set to contribute in the NFL as a rookie. These four have the tools to become quality starters in the league and have the potential for much, much more.
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