The Diamonds and the Rough: Evaluating the 2020 Wide Receiver Class
By: Carter and Hershy Kulkarni
In many ways, Super Bowl LIV was a referendum on the direction of the modern NFL. The Niners had reached the last matchup of the season after drubbing the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers in the NFC Championship Game, despite quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only throwing a total of eight passes in the entire game. When head coach Kyle Shanahan turned Raheem Mostert loose for four touchdowns, he proved that there is still room for a team built around the ground game to contend for a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they ran up against the Chiefs, the Andy Reid-led offensive juggernaut, and in doing so may have confirmed a basic truth: passing is king.
High-powered passing offenses in 2020 require not only an above-average quarterback and solid offensive line play but also depth at the pass-catching positions, and more specifically at receiver. A lucky few teams can get away with one superstar and two or three warm bodies if he is truly transcendent (see: Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins), and others can rely on a mastermind head coach to scheme guys open down the field. However, in the 11 personnel era, it generally is a prerequisite to have competent players at two, if not all three receiver positions.
Luckily for teams that are lacking that depth (looking at you here Philly), the 2020 NFL Draft features perhaps the deepest class of ball-catchers since 2014. Much has been written about this topic, and if you’ve even dipped your toe in the water of draft coverage this time around you already know this. What you also know is that there is somewhat of a consensus around which players comprise the upper echelon of the position group: Alabama receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and Oklahoma star CeeDee Lamb. Ruggs has the explosive athleticism, Jeudy is probably the superior route runner, and Lamb makes big plays on 50/50 balls. We’ll leave the debate about how those three should be sorted to other outlets. What we’re interested in is the rest of the class. Once that elite trio is off the board, where should teams be looking?
Successful wide receivers in the NFL today come in all shapes and sizes. From the 5’10” speed demon Tyreek Hill to the 6’5” possession receiver Mike Evans, there’s plenty of proven wide receiver archetypes in the NFL, all successful in their own way. However, certain traits stand out above others.
Release:
Any WR that can’t deal with press coverage is doomed to fail in today’s quick-pass era. WRs need superior footwork and hand-to-hand combat at the line of scrimmage to run routes unobstructed.
Separation:
The NFL is a copycat league and the Super Bowl winning Chiefs essentially line up 3 Olympic sprinters every play at WR — however, while speed is highly coveted, separation created via excellent route running is far more important. It’s the reason why Davante Adams, a 4.6 40 yard dash guy, is seemingly always open. And why Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman is a historically correct phrase, and not a wet dream that Bill Simmons had.
Catching:
Goes without saying. During the 2019 season, the three teams with highest drop rates in the NFL were the Dolphins, the Bills, and the Bears. Not exactly the company you want to keep. Reliable hands keep chains moving and coaches unfired.
Football IQ:
As a diehard Chicago Bears fan, the ghost of Kevin White is still freshly imprinted in my mind, who should serve as a warning to GM’s that draft physical attributes at the cost of football intelligence. For WR’s, this means being smart enough to play in a pro-style offense and being capable of running a plurality of the route tree. This is hard to evaluate on tape, so we won’t try. Yes, DK Metcalf exists. He is an exception.
With all this in mind, here are a couple gems and a couple busts of the WR class of 2020, after the consensus top three.
POTENTIAL GEMS
Tee Higgins
Clemson University, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’4” | Weight — 216 lbs | Wingspan — 34 ⅛” | Hands — 9 ¼“
Did not do drills at the combine
2019 Stat Line: 59 REC, 1,167 YDS, 13 TD, 19.8 AVG
Tee Higgins had one of the most impressive 2018 sophomore campaigns in Clemson history and followed it up with another strong 2019 season. He finished his career with 27 receiving touchdowns, behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins (not bad company!). Playing in a run first offense predicated on RPOs and spread-option plays, Higgins played safety blanket for all-star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. As one of the most natural catchers in the draft, Higgins has a rare ability to high point and win contested balls. Although he has below average athleticism and poor release off the line, he is the definition of a “gamer” who shows up when it counts.
Higgins has a very slow release. There is no getting around that. Take a look at this play against NC State, where he somehow looks slower than his 40 tape.
Despite the ball being completely in play, it takes Higgins more time to cross the field than his own quarterback. He’s obviously not the first read on this play, but nonetheless, on an NFL team, a slow route like this will render you irrelevant on the play.
His lack of athleticism shows and could pose an issue against press coverage in the NFL. When he has soft coverage, however, is when he does his damage. As a player with the ability to play deep and through the middle, this will help prevent press too often. However, it is clear that Higgins thrives on zone coverage and will need more coaching on press coverage at the next level.
Higgins also doesn’t separate very well against coverage either. His routes are routinely rounded out and are not precise. Many offenses in the NFL, like the one the Bears run, are predicated on precise routes and timing. He needs to put in significant work this offseason on polishing this part of his game. However, his lack of separation also makes his strengths even more impressive. Higgins routinely wins at the catch point with contested balls and acrobatic catches due to superior ball skills and physicality. His technique is not good, but this is the norm for a WR out of college, and ultimately not something to worry about.
The catch point is where Higgins makes his money. Yes, he does struggle with easy drops and has some truly embarrassing blips, but way more often, Higgins has an elite, rare ability to high point the ball. He’s excellent at adjusting to a poor throw, as you can see in these clips.
Higgins doesn’t have experience playing press coverage and played a limited route tree at Clemson. Higgins will have a learning curve to be proficient at the pro level. In addition, he has below average athleticism, testing at a 4.54 40 yard dash and 31 inch vertical. This is not one of those “he just tests bad” cases. It’s very clear on film.
Higgins hearkens of a veteran Dez Bryant. Neither player wows you physically and neither will win offensive matchups because of technical ability. However, Higgins has very similar ball skills as Bryant and provides a potential blueprint for Higgins down the line.
Justin Jefferson
Louisiana State University, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’1” | Weight — 202 lbs | Wingspan — 33” | Hands — 9 ⅛”
40 Yard Dash — 4.43 seconds | Vertical Jump — 37.5 inches |Broad Jump — 126 inches
2019 Stat Line: 111 REC, 1,540 YDS, 18 TD, 13.9 AVG
LSU had one of the all-time great college football seasons in 2019, winning the National Championship as an undefeated team that outscored opponents by an average of 25 points on the year. Quarterback Joe Burrow won the Heisman trophy, and is a lock to be the first overall pick in the upcoming draft. While Ja’Marr Chase got the most attention as the Tigers’ WR1 (and took home the Biletnikoff for his trouble), Justin Jefferson led the team (and all of FBS) in receptions. Jefferson is a refined Z receiver with excellent ball skills and a knack for making plays in the end zone. He doesn’t have next-level acceleration or agility, but makes up for it with size and beautiful adjustments to the throw. Evaluating his tape was an absolute joy because he makes contested catches, has a beautiful long stride across the field, and blocks at the line and second level with an infectious passion. That said, I believe he can be a productive receiver in the NFL, but teams should think twice before spending a first round pick on him (as some mock drafts suggest they might).
He has average speed off the line, something he will need to improve on to make up for when the bar for athleticism is raised at the next level. He can create opportunities down the field with his speed, he just doesn’t have the crazy quick twitch to come off the line blazing. He occasionally has sloppy footwork at the start of his routes that needs to be tidied up.
Quick corners are able to stay with him easily on short routes in man coverage and the lack of separation he creates is a concern. In zone, he is able to find the cushion and, if given space, utilizes an effective hesitation move to create YAC opportunities. He can be jammed with contact off the line, but at times this is ineffective against him. Watch this play against Auburn’s defense where he quickly releases, forces away the contact, and finds the hole in the zone to make the play.
He’s a smart receiver and when the play breaks down into a scramble drill, he puts himself in positions to make demoralizing backyard football plays. His hands are a mixed bag: on the one hand he has some bad drops on his film, but these are overshadowed by his highlight reel moves against defenders on deep balls in the end zone. I wrote down “red zone BEAST” in my notes after watching his tape, because if you watch enough of his games you get used to seeing him make play after play like this one against Texas.
The closest pro comparison I could find for him was Demaryius Thomas, which is of course a ceiling comp, but his smooth strides on the field and ability to go up and make plays against defenders in good position makes me hopeful that a good team will be able to take advantage of his elite ball skills. If he works on his release and route running, he has the potential to be a perennial 1000 yard receiver out of the slot.
Brandon Aiyuk
Arizona State University, Senior (Age 22)
Measurables:
Height — 6’0” | Weight — 205 lbs | Wingspan — 33 ½” | Hands — 9 ¾”
40 Yard Dash — 4.50 seconds | Bench Press — 11 reps | Vertical Jump — 40.0 inches | Broad Jump — 128.0 inches
2019 Stat Line: 65 REC, 1,192 YDS, 8 TD, 18.3 AVG
ASU primary option Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t a highly sought after prospect out of Robert McQueen High School in his hometown of Reno, Nevada. He started his career at Sierra College, and after two years of JUCO ball, he made the leap to D1 in Tempe. After a monster 2019 season, he’s moved up draft boards and will likely be one of the first seven pass catchers off the board.
Watching his tape, it’s easy to see what has NFL teams so excited. He’s a speed demon with Lamar Jackson-type handles. He’s a solid return man, and coming out of Sierra, he was mainly recruited as a return specialist. He needs to tighten up his routes, but he played all three receiver positions in Herm Edwards’s offense and uses his lightning agility to create separation in the flat and over the middle. He could likely play outside at the NFL level will cause headaches for opposing coordinators with both his ability to create big play opportunities over the top and his shiftiness in space. There will be more polished players available, but he has the raw talent to be the best player to come out of this class.
He has a fast release, coming off the line with speed at sharp angles. He can be jammed at the line by an agile corner, and needs to get better at batting away grabs and pulls to create the room for his speed to take over. One thing I love about Aiyuk is that he has a full bag of moves to get open. He can stutter step, cut back inside, hesitate, and hit you with a double move all on the same drive. Watch this play against the number 6 team in the country Oregon, where he hits the corner with a double move, catches an overthrown ball, regains his balance, and takes it to the house. He can do this in the NFL. Unlike this play, there’ll be a safety waiting for him at the back end, but he’s still getting chunk yardage.
In college, he was able to get open, despite sloppy footwork, because of his game-breaking speed and acceleration. That’s not going to happen at the next level. He needs to run tighter routes to find holes in NFL defenses and he needs to come down with it when the ball comes his way.
To that end, there are real concerns over his catching ability. Aiyuk has multiple bad drops and has an unfortunate knack for fumbles near the chains. He needs to work on having his hands in the right position on time so that he can avoid plays like these.
To his credit, he tracks the deep ball well and has the ability to adjust on the fly to poorly thrown balls. He can make the back shoulder grab downfield, and his 40 inch vertical leap should excite every wide receivers coach from LA to Foxborough that wants to improve his catch rate on contested balls.
Another ceiling comp for Aiyuk, but he looks a lot like Emmanuel Sanders coming out of SMU. He has awesome field quickness and has the shiftiness to create separation the way Sanders has for the Broncos and Niners. He’s not making big plays at the catch point, but if you put him against a plodding DB he’s gonna make you look silly.
POTENTIAL BUSTS
KJ Hamler
Penn State University, Junior (Age 20)
Measurables:
Height — 5’9” | Weight — 178 lbs | Wingspan — 30 ¾” | Hands — 9 ⅜”
Bench Press — 15 reps
2019 Stat Line: 56 REC, 904 YDS, 8 TD, 16.1 AVG
KJ Hamler had an excellent sophomore season in 2018, breaking Penn State’s all purpose yardage record, previously owned by Saquon Barkley. He followed it up with a solid 2019 season. He projects as a NFL slot receiver due to physical traits and abilities. As one of the fastest WR’s in the draft, his fast twitch field speed makes him a potential gamebreaker on every play. That said, Hamler has notable and consistent catching issues. He also runs poor routes. Finally, his size limits his ability to handle physicality at the line well. In the right scheme, Hamler can fill a Tyreek Hill role. In order for that to happen, he needs to be actively schemed in open space, otherwise he can’t be counted on to break free consistently in the NFL.
Hamler has a blazing fast release, to the surprise of absolutely no one. He does have difficulty with physicality near the line of scrimmage but that is to be expected with an undersized player.
Hamler has excellent separation and uses his elite quickness and wiggle to get separation quickly. He won with speed, but routinely free-styles routes. At Penn State, this didn’t pose an issue. In the NFL, it certainly will.
On the downside, Hamler had one of the worst drop rates in college football last year, dropping 12 passes on 68 targets. He is a high-variance prospect, as he has poor concentration on easy catches but also has the propensity to snag some difficult throws. However, his limited size makes him poor at in-traffic or contested possessions.
As an undersized receiver with limited technical proficiency, the concern is that in the NFL, these deficiences will catch up to him. Yes, he will continue being one of the fastest players on the field. But when teams can simply move a slot corner to the line of scrimmage and bottle him up without too much difficulty, this highlights his one-dimensionality.
KJ Hamler is nearly identical to Marquise Goodwin, a small WR with trackstar-type speed. Goodwin has had success in the NFL and could be a blueprint for Hamler’s career, but both struggle with drops and their size limits their route tree potential. Both players have the ability to stretch defenses vertically and laterally, but neither can do so consistently due to a lack of technical route running ability.
Denzel Mims
Baylor University, Senior (Age 22)
Measurables:
Height — 6’3” | Weight — 207 lbs | Wingspan — 33 ⅞” | Hands — 9 ⅜”
40 Yard Dash — 4.38 seconds | Bench Press — 16 reps | Vertical Jump — 38.5 inches | Broad Jump — 131.0 inches | 3 Cone Drill — 6.66 seconds | 20 Yd Shuttle — 4.43 seconds
2019 Stat Line: 66 REC, 1,020 YDS, 12 TD, 15.5 AVG
Denzel Mims was one of the top receivers in the Big 12 last season, compiling over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. This was amidst excellent offensive play with quarterback Charlie Brewer and X receiver Marques Jones. His rare combination of size and speed make him a formidable opponent to play against. However, he is a quintessential boom or bust prospect. At the college level, Mims wins consistently against bad defenses with superior athleticism, but he struggles to win consistent separation. This is highlighted in his last game against Georgia, where 40 of his total 75 yards came on one play. For someone with mid first round buzz, he’s seemingly a non-factor for too much of a college game at one time. At Baylor, he was imposing enough to beat people on speed, but in the NFL, this won’t fly. For someone with 4.4 speed, Mims has poor release and has a history of drops.
Mims has a slower release than a 4.4 speed would suggest. Part of this is due to his long strides and height, but nonetheless, he has flashes of Alshon Jeffery off the line. Far from a compliment. Mims also struggles against press coverage, where he displays worse than expected physicality at the line of scrimmage.
Mims struggles to get open in man coverage against quality opponents like Oklahoma and Georgia. While his final stat line may look good, in both games, Mims was essentially erased for large portions of the game with man to man coverage. His speed and wiggle usually bails him out time after time, where he can simply impose on the DB instead of winning on superior technique. Against top corners like 6'1" Eric Stokes at Georgia, this doesn’t always cut it. Mims shows physicality during his routes but aren’t not polished enough to make him a truly imposing threat.
Mims’s big strength is his ability to attack the ball in air and win contested balls. Not quite as talented as Higgins, Mims still has strong talent here and, coupled with his size and speed, makes him tantalizing to some teams alone. He’s especially dangerous around the goal line for these reasons.
Mims runs a very limited route tree and is a non-factor too often against opposing quarterbacks to be getting the amount of buzz he is getting in the pre-draft process. He is more of a project than bullish analysts are letting on.
Mims’ game is very similar to Devin Funchess: a long-bodied receiver with a large catch radius. Both have ball talent but neither uses their athleticism particularly well. Both win at catch point fair often but neither separate with any consistency.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
University of Colorado, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 6’1” | Weight — 227 lbs | Wingspan — 31 ⅞” | Hands — 9”
40 Yard Dash — 4.58 seconds | Bench Press — 17 reps
2019 Stat Line: 56 REC, 764 YDS, 4 TD, 13.6 AVG
Laviska Shenault was, year in and year out, the most talented player on the abysmal Colorado Buffaloes offense. He was one of the top receivers in 2018 with over 1,000 yards and 6 TDs and, after a lesser 2019, was named the team’s MVP. This was despite only starting 8 games due to injury. Not helped by an awful offensive line and poor quarterback play, Shenault is far from flashy and can honestly be best summarized by “he’s, like, fine”. However, he has strong, consistent hands and plays the possession receiver role quite well. He will likely never become a superstar receiver, but his ceiling is respectable: he can be an average productive Z receiver in the league. He has a surprising wiggle for his size and has YAC ability. However, like many WR’s coming out of the draft, struggles with clean routes. Shenault also offers value with versatility as a return man on special teams and out of the backfield. Although he’s not a superb athlete, he was Colorado’s best, being used as a wildcat QB and being motioned through the formation. However, Shenault’s injury concerns and raw talent make him more of a project pick than his first round buzz would indicate.
Shenault has a slow release, akin to Tee Higgins. He has no experience against press coverage, and is thus better suited as a Z receiver. He has played against poor defenses throughout his college career and is almost always allowed a free release without significant physicality. This makes him hard to project to the next level.
Against zone coverage, Shenault finds gaps relatively well. His strength is physicality and is not afraid of using his hands to fight for space during the route. He also surprises with a decent wiggle for his size. Watch these two clips of him against Nebraska’s defense last year. First, he shows wiggle and ability to make people miss. He takes the second one as a wildcat QB and shows off squat-rack strength.
Shenault’s physicality also enables him to draw defensive penalties on deep throws. He has just enough top end speed to beat college defenders deep but that is unlikely to happen in the NFL. His routes are not polished — like many of these wide receivers, he routinely rounds out the top of his routes and has weak cuts.
Shenault has excellent hands and projects to be a quality possession receiver in the NFL. Time after time, Shenault bails out an anemic Colorado defense on 3rd and long with sure hands right around the chains. He is dependable as a catcher and has flashes of acrobatic plays as well.
Shenault has significant and well documented injury concerns. Although he is reportedly fully healed from his core injury, Shenault has battled a torn labrum that required surgery, a toe injury that required surgery, a turf toe injury, and groin pain all in just two years. While many of these are not soft tissue injuries, these are concerning trends that might very well persist. Shenault also does not possess an excellent motor. There are many instances where he takes a “break” on a play and doesn’t finish a route, usually during one of the many scramble drills that Steven Montez finds himself in. To be fair, If I had Montez as a quarterback, I probably wouldn’t try very hard either. But he’s an NFL prospect and I’m a shmuck on a computer.
Shenault plays a similar game to Sammy Watkins. Although Watkins had a superb college career and tested incredibly well, Watkins in the NFL plays a very unassuming, physical possession receiver role in the NFL. They are both largely dependable to be in the right place at the right time and can move the chains with sure hands with consistency.
Jalen Reagor
Texas Christian University, Junior (Age 21)
Measurables:
Height — 5’11” | Weight — 206 lbs | Wingspan — 31 ⅜” | Hands — 9 ½”
40 Yard Dash — 4.47 seconds | Bench Press — 17 reps | Vertical Jump — 42.0 inches | Broad Jump — 138.0 inches | 3 Cone Drill — 7.31 seconds | 20 Yd Shuttle — 4.46 seconds
2019 Stat Line: 43 REC, 611 YDS, 5 TD, 14.2 AVG
TCU wideout Jalen Reagor set a school record by catching 7 consecutive touchdowns in his sophomore season and is an intriguing prospect for teams without much speed on their depth chart. Reagor was a three-sport athlete at Waxahachie High School down in Texas, and notably for teams looking to copy the Kansas City model of lining up three track stars, he was a state champion in the long jump. He’s a fast receiver with the ability to create solid separation and burst for big plays, but he also is a mediocre route runner and his tape doesn’t show much evidence of playmaking in contested situations. I think there’s a real chance he doesn’t end up being a productive player at wide receiver, though he does offer an immediate boost on special teams, owning the second highest punt return average in the nation in 2019.
There’s a lot not to like about Reagor’s technique. Let’s start with his release, which is relatively slow and untidy for someone with his athletic profile. He tilts forward and puts his foot into the grass slowly, which puts him a split second behind the play. Once he’s going, he tears up the grass, but his form leaves a lot to be desired.
Unlike Aiyuk, Reagor does not have many tricks in his bag. He creates space by cutting in and out to misdirect corners, but there’s not enough there to see him as someone who’s a consistent YAC threat. He only needs a second of hesitation to blow by defenders, but sloppy footwork prevents him from doing so regularly. Additionally, he gets jammed at the line of scrimmage and can be bothered easily by opponents getting away with grabbing at him.
He has several bad drops on tape (eight in total last season), often trying to burst downfield before he’s completed the catch.
He hasn’t shown an aptitude to make catches against taller defenders, and as an undersized receiver, it has to be a concern going into the NFL. His catch radius is limited, but he does have the ability to go up and grab balls off his back shoulder.
Ultimately, his speed and agility allow him to take top off defense and go for big plays, and often can create some separation on shorter routes with fakes, but he’s relying a lot on several yards between him and the nearest defender to create valuable plays.
I would compare him to Tavon Austin, a short, speedy guy who offers value as a returner, but ultimately doesn’t have the fundamental talent to be successful in a pass-catching role. His career will likely take a similar path, being shuffled between teams intrigued with his raw talent on offense, but quickly siloed into a punt return specialist at each stop, before being jettisoned.
The NFL Draft mock draft industry has become a burgeoning cotton industry for the media and fans. With over 47.5 million viewers, everyone profits from spin-zones and intrigue as a build-up to the three day event. This is evident with the wide receiver class this year, discussed as one of the deepest classes in recent history. Given the way scouts are projecting this class, people believe up to seven receivers could be drafted in the first round, including many of those analyzed here. However, after extensive tape review, this is a bad view. These seven receivers are represented by the media as the second tier in this draft, but in our opinion, only three present themselves as legitimate options outside of Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs.
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