Welcome to the Week 16 of The OSG Report! We have a VERY interesting week as the season nears a close. As I am considering roster construction, I am going to add a few unique rules that should apply for the rest of the season as COVID takes a toll on the NFL worse than injuries.
When considering value this week, particularly back-ups, is this a good spot overall for the player and position? Would you start the starter in this spot? Also, consider who is throwing passes to the WR you are clicking on as well. There is value up and down the WR and RB position this week, and as of now I’m leaning taking the RB value and paying up for some solid established WRs in good spots on healthy teams, on good teams, and competing.
Enough of that, let’s get into it. Week 16…LET’s GO!
Quarterback — Top 3
Matthew Stafford — Several things separate Stafford from the pack and it’s a good list. 1) He has a fully loaded WR core in Kupp, Jefferson, and OBJ. 2) Higbee has been activated from the COVID list. 3) Healthy backfiled. 4) Faces a Vikings defense in a dome who gave up over 400 yards to Chicago Monday Night. The one hole to poke in LA is that they played Tuesday night. So, both teams get a short week, and LA has the travel with an early start time.
Joe Burrow — This is semi-risky being the 2nd divisional game with Baltimore whom Cincy trucked in their first meeting. Like Stafford, Burrow has a completely healthy weapon cabinet in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Throw in a competent TE in CJ Uzomah, and RB in Joe Mixon to help keep drives alive in short down situations vs a Baltimore who’s injury issues on the defensive side keeps opposing offenses in play. **We can say the same for Tyler Huntley if Lamar Jackson is ruled OUT. I lean that Jackson is not going to play with that ankle. Huntley is more than capable and drafted as a great Lamar replacement. This allows this offense to continue to function in the same manner. Mark Andrews continues to smash with either QB and will be a great play this week. This all elevates this game in a must win situation for both teams in a wide-open AFC North. Baltimore’s offensive weapons are healthy (sans the RB core) and, this game could be one of the better scoring games based on weapons alone.
Justin Herbert — The offense takes a hit with Ekeler on the COVID list, but with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, and Joshua Palmer with Jalen Guyton also on the COVID list, it should be all systems go for Herbert and Co. vs the Texans. In the dome, vs a gun slinger such as Davis Mills should make this game fantasy friendly for the Chargers.
Big Questions at QB
Patrick Mahomes — As the highest priced QB this week do we want to play him at home vs Pittsburgh (still a respectable defense) with the potential of no Hill or Kelce? Yes, it makes the stack cheap, and Mahomes is going to throw, but we are relying on Hardman, Pringle, and Josh Gordon.
Josh Allen — A good real-life game, but it’s a tough spot vs NE. Allen has the ability to account for 2–3 TDs + any given week making the floor-ceiling combo always in tack. Bill Belichick knows him well.
Tom Brady — It’s a tough spot on paper vs Carolina with no Godwin, no Evans, and we are still waiting to see on Antonio Brown’s return. But he is the GOAT and should be ANGRY after being shut-out by New Orleans.
Kirk Cousins — The rushing game is usually the way to attack the Rams. He’s at home in the dome with one of the best WRs in the NFL to stack with in Justin Jefferson.
Off the Board
Matt Ryan — He’s in dome against Detroit. He has viable targets right now with Pitts and Gage. Not the worst idea (Could be).
Davis Mills — He could throw it 40–50 times in come back mode.
Jared Goff — If he could get activated from the COVID list, he’s in a great stack spot with Amon Ra-St. Brown vs Atlanta in a potential shootout. The Lions are playing decent the last 3 weeks and are looking to next season.
Wide Receiver — We are going to break this down in sections based on DK pricing and picking out the favorites in the bunch.
Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson — They’re in a league of their own and are both great spend ups opposing each other in the weeks highest total in a dome. One of the reasons I’m taking the RB value to spend up at WR.
- *Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johsnon, Ja’Marr Chase — Allen’s floor should be high here, while Diggs has the lowest ceiling as of late. Beasley and Gabe Davis are both on the COVID list and should elevate Diggs’ floor here, but it’s a tough spot vs NE. The Chiefs defense is playing better and Big Ben on the road has been a nightmare his entire career. Johnson is still in line for 10+ targets each week. Chase followed by Allen are my favorite in this range but they are all playable. Chase has been too quiet as of late. Baltimore gives up both the most 20+ yard catches and 40+ yard catches. I love Burrow so the stack with Chase makes so much sense this week ran back with Mark Andrews.
**Hunter Renfrow, Tyler Lockett, Tee Higgins, Mike Williams — Potential weather makes Lockett shaky, otherwise it’s a good spot for him and he’s maintained value since Wilson’s return. Renfrow should bounce back to his 8+ targets as it was a much better spot for Moreau last week. Higgins and Williams big play upside jumps out of this bunch considering both of their matchups this week.
**Russell Gage, Hollywood Brown, Amon Ra-St. Brown, Van Jefferson, Darnell Mooney, OBJ, Tyler Boyd — The 5K range is loaded here. Gage is the #1WR for ATL in a great spot. Hollywood (10 receptions last week with Huntley) and Mooney may be my least favorite with Mooney on the road in potential weather but a spike game should be coming any day for Mooney. St. Brown, Van Jefferson, and OBJ are my favorites here playing in domes. St. Brown is operating for Goff the way Kupp did for him, and Van Jefferson and OBJ are coin flips each week to follow Kupp as the next best box score. I do like St. Brown more with a limited or ruled out Deandre Swift.
Under 5K: **Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, KJ Osborn — The 4K range offers value with (*) attached. Anderson is in play if DJ Moore is out. He’s seen 8 and 12 targets the last two weeks. Faces a beatable Tampa secondary who also has a depleted WR coore. No Godwin, no Evans, no Fournette could lead to Antonio Brown being the defacto #1WR at 4.9K vs Carolina if he’s able to go. KJ Osborn is in play if Adam Thielen remains out in a potential shootout.
*Under 4K: Tyler Johnson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Laquon Treadwell, Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Chris Conley, Demiere Byrd, Byron Pringle — Pringle and Hardman will be popular spend downs as people love to play Mahomes and ignore the red flags of this offense. I like Tyler Johnson as he’s been involved the in the offense consistently for Tampa. He will operate as the the #1 or #2 WR for Brady. Collins stands out as a good play at 3.4K for Mills. The Texans lets Mills sling it for 4 quarters and Brandin Cooks landed on the COVID list as well. They do NOT want to run the ball. Treadwell operated as the #1WR last week, Shenault landed on the COVID list and faces the Jets. Conely is the next man up in Houston, and with Zaccheaus we are hoping for a TD vs Detroit.
Running Back — Here’s where I think you have to nail it. We are going to go backwards so to speak and begin with the value from bottom price to the top.
Justin Jackson — At 4.2K he stands out as the preferred Chargers back above Joshua Kelley (4K) vs The Texans. He should be in lineups that do not have Herbert or Chargers WRs.
Ronald Jones — We should also throw in Ke’Shawn Vaughn as a potential pass catching RB for Brady. That’s a 5–7 target role. Jones while he will not be used much in the passing game should stand in line for 20+ carries.
Devin Singletary — May be a good play if New England sells out to stop Allen-Diggs.
Rashaad Penny — #1RB for a coach who loves to run. Heavy home favorites. He checks a few boxes.
Sony Michel — Maintained the #1 RB role over Henderson last week. In a good spot in the weeks highest total. Like Jackson, Michel should land in lineups without Stafford/Kupp stacks.
Miles Sanders — In a great spot and has been on a role on a team who wants to run the ball. Good pair with Eagles defense.
David Montgomery — Despite being a road dog, his role is secured. Despite failing in the red zone, the Bears managed 400+ yards last week. If 1–2 of those drives turns into Montgomery TDs he crushes.
CEH — Perhaps the Chiefs lean run and RB passes with Hill and Kelce potentially out.
James Robinson — For his 5.9K he is perhaps the best RB play on paper this week. The Jets are the WORST rush defense in the NFL by all metrics including fantasy points allowed. The interim head coach made good on his promise to install Robinson as the #1RB and to treat him as such. The only hole to poke in this play is JAX’s ability to sustain drives for Robinson to hit his ceiling with his 20+ touches incoming.
Javonte Williams — Prefer him over Gordon here. I do believe he has the higher ceiling.
Alexander Mattison — Rule of thumb. Do NOT ask questions..do not pass go. If you want to collect your $200 just play Mattison when Dalvin Cook is out. On paper the RB is the best spot to attack LA. 20–25+ touches incoming in the weeks highest total.
Joe Mixon — 20+ touch potential each week. I just hate his lack of pass game involvement.
Najee Harris — Better spot here this week than his spot vs Tennessee last week. That should lower his ownership and could bounce back quite nicely vs KC.
Tight End- I could say spend up for Mark Andrews and Gronk, and spend down on a TE in Seattle, but I’m obligated to go deeper here.
Mark Andrews — TE starts and stops here and could just plug him in with WR numbers. It’s a good spot and he’s been crushing no matter who plays QB.
Rob Gronkowski — No Evans, No Godwin, No Fournette = Very little red zone competition if Tampa moves the ball. In that area of the field, Gronk is 1 of the best.
Kyle Pitts — If you’ve been on this bridge, take 1 more drive. After going for 77 yards last week, he’s in a great spot vs Detroit.
Dawson Knox — It’s a TOUGH spot for Knox, but with no Beasley or Davis, the volume and potential for a TD is there in a HUGE AFC EAST game.
Dallas Goedert — Has been playing great. No reason that should not continue vs the Giants.
Hunter Henry — Has been playing great and is one of Jones’ best red zone targets. Tough spot on paper. Huge game.
Tyler Conklin — He’s out there. He’s on the field. He sees targets every week.
Gerald Everett — Check the box scores. Steady Eddie. 10 fantasy points at TE is gold.
Foster Moreau — Continue to play him with no Waller.
Jared Cook — Perhaps more targets with no Ekeler or Guyton?
Cole Kmet — He’s been steady and a comfort for Fields.
CJ Uzomah — Good spot on paper…and has seen steady targets though the yards and TDs have not been there. Could be a good spot for it at 3K.
Defense — Wide open and I do not LOVE any of the defenses. Construction and Salary left could lead you to a defense. If you can think of 2–3 good reasons to click them, by all means do it. The less you have interest in teams offensively, the more you should be looking at the opposing defense.
Bucs — The highest price defense facing turnover prone CAM.
Eagles — GREAT spot and one of my favorites. The Giants are IMMUNE TO TDS for years now. The Eagles defense has been rolling. The rushing game is keeping opposing offenses on the bench. Aside from being on the road on a short week, they check a lot of boxes.
Chiefs — Could have a turnover/sack field day vs Ben.
Seahawks — At 3K, Justin Fields is good for 1 fumble, 1 INT at least.
Bengals — Underrated defense. What if Huntley has a bad game as Lamar/Baltimore did in the previous meeting?
Broncos — The Raiders are allergic to 20 points in 1 game.
Jets- Tough but facing the JAGS.
Jags — Tough but facing the JETS!