Welcome to Week 8 of The OSG Report. We are almost halfway home, and the good games keep rolling. We are learning (as we always do) that anything can happen “any given Sunday” and we can build lineups and make decisions based on research, excellent spots, + a little gut instinct and decision making. With all that said, let’s get right to it!
Quarterback — I’ve usually made this list based on price from high to low. This week, I’m ranking my favorites, top to bottom, along with stack options, and possible run backs on the opposing team.
Justin Herbert — I love Herbert this week for several reasons. While the matchup is middle of the road-ish, I’ll take shots against a defense who allowed Davis Mills to light them up for 300+ yards and multiple TDs. Period. Yes, his last outing was not so stellar against a Baltimore team, on the road…The Chargers on both sides of the ball just got drugged. They’ve had a week off to prepare for New England..back at home. It’s the perfect time to buy back on Herbert and Mike Williams stacks. A week to get back on track with his knee, plus time to give the slowly aging, yet still heavily targeted Keenan Allen as well. To top it off, I believe this game stays close. An advantage of maximum 4-quarter effort over Burrow, Allen, Stafford, etc. Run this stack back with Damien Harris or Hunter Henry.
Joe Burrow — 400 yards against that same Baltimore defense…now he gets the J-ET-S. Jets Jets Jets Jets. It’s an EVERY WEEK NO BRAINER TO STACK BURROW WITH JA’MARR CHASE. You can mix in Tee Higgins, but I’ve been beating the Chase in tournaments drums for weeks…
Ryan Tannehill — We said last week, KC presented the best chance for Tannehill to bounce back. He and AJ Brown stacks worked to an extent, but now with Julio Jones OUT it certainly focuses the offense on Tannehill, Brown, and Derrick Henry. Any path to failure for Henry IS THE TITANS PASSING GAME inside the Colts’ dome.
*Blowout concerns*
Josh Allen — In their 35–0 meeting with Miami, Allen didn’t “get there.” He’s the highest priced QB this week, but in a juicy matchup. That game saw the running game do well, but I could see the 4 TDs all coming thru Allen by land or by air. The stacking gets tricky with Stefan Diggs and his 8.1K over price. The targets are there, but the points do not justify the price. Allen is just so good that the ball is spread out. I love Emmanuel Sanders to stack with, and Cole Beasley (especially with Dawson Knox OUT).
Matt Stafford — The blowout is probably in full effect with Davis Mills in one more game. The Lions game stayed closer than expected, but I just do not see that happening here. OF COURSE the blowout comes from the connection of Stafford to Cooper Kupp, and possibly Robert Woods.
*Matchup Concerns*
Tom Brady — He is the GOAT but even he struggled in this matchup last season. His best target in Mike Evans routinely gets shut down by Marshawn Lattimore. That leads us to stacking Brady (risky) with Chris Godwin or Rob Gronkowski since he is back and Antonio Brown STILL OUT.
*Struggling with:*
Matt Ryan — Man it sure seems like a trap to fall for Ryan’s 300+ yard performances over his last 3. He’s averaged 25.3 fantasy points across that stretch. It’s a tough matchup in a division game, but projected to stay close. He’s at home in a dome, he’s locked in on Kyle Pitts with 8 red zone targets, and 4 inside the 10. More people will click on Calvin Ridley to stack with over Pitts, with pricing at TE alone.
Carson Wentz — Also on a 3 game stretch of good games. He gets a home matchup against a Titans defense that we are NOT afraid of (The Chiefs are just that bad right now). But he’s playable here with his price stacked with Michael Pittman.
Trevor Lawrence — Call me crazy but I think the Jags travel West to Seattle and win this game outright. They’re rested and catch Geno Smith (who could play better too) at the head of the opposing team. Marvin Jones, Jr. Leviska Shenault (my favorite) and Dan Arnold are showing good chemistry with Lawrence despite their head coach.
Wide Receiver — We have mentioned WRs in the stacks, so here’s where else we can look to:
Cooper Kupp — Even at 9K he’s playable with or without stacks. He’s got 30 up and down his box scores and he’s just great right now.
Terry McLaurin — Same thing every week here. More afraid of the travel to Denver than Denver’s defense itself to stop this clear cut #1WR.
Deebo Samuel — It’s an ugly game in Chicago with a 39 total, but as long as Jimmy G is playing, he’s locked in on 8–10 targets, 100 yard, TD ceiling every week.
Mike Evans — Probably a hard pass for me. 4/64 1/2/TD 4/69 BIG FAT 0, and 4/86 is his recent game log vs Lattimore.
DK Metcalf — Geno’s most targeted WR. No Jags corner can even come close to guarding him. Geno is his own biggest threat.
AJ Brown — Love him this week within a close division game.
Mid Range Value
Courtland Sutton — Jerry Jeudy is returning which helps the offense as a whole, but of course eats into his targets. Monitor Jeudy’s health, as he had a tweak in practice Friday. Great spot overall vs Washington.
Chris Godwin — Tough matchup but better than Evans. If Brady has success vs New Orleans, it’s thru Godwin.
Robert Woods — Not in love with it, but everything is in play in the Rams offense.
Charles Claypool — Bad game environment, but big play potential vs a tough but beatable secondary.
Marvin Jones Jr. & Leviska Shenault — One of them will pop Sunday. I personally like the 4.7K price tag vs Jones’ 5.9K. They both had 10 targets last game out.
Emmanuel Sanders — Bills offense/Josh Allen stacks
Michael Pittman — Good spot vs Tennessee if you trust Wentz.
Kalif Raymond — If the Lions compete vs Philly (which is possible) then the pieces are in play.
Tee Higgins — Could “tee” off vs the Jets
Cole Beasley — Great value, especially in Bills stacks. Dawson Knox is out.
*Risky Value*
Van Jefferson — All the pieces for the Rams are in play. Desean Jackson is out, so no competition for #WR3. Caught a TD last week. 3.9K price tag
Amon Ra-St. Brown — Oh man, he leveled out with a 0 target game. I like the bounce back after seeing 8, 8, and 7 targets the 3 games before at 3.9K.
Running Back
Derrick Henry — Tough matchup on paper, but The Big Dog has performed well vs the Colts D coordinator.
Alvin Kamara — Very tough matchup on paper. It’s the receptions to RBs that Tampa struggles with.
Austin Ekeler — He has not practiced. His limitation, or absence just bumps my Herbert play.
Najee Harris — Just look at the game logs. Look at the targets. Just keep playing him with Ben Checkdown.
Jonathan Taylor — He’s the best player on an offense that’s clicking.
Deandre Swift — Great matchup for his role catching passes.
Joe Mixon — He’s not getting the pass work, but they should play with a lead. Not one of my favorites.
James Robinson — GREAT matchup in a game I think they win.
Darrell Henderson — Game script ONCE AGAIN favors him heavily here in a great matchup.
Leonard Fournette — Tough matchup on paper but he’s very involved in the best offense in the league.
Damien Harris — Has the softest on paper matchup with the Chargers Run D. We do need this game to stay close for him to pay off, but on paper HE HAS THE BEST MATCHUP ON THE BOARD and has a head coach in New England who is great at game planning vs weaknesses.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts — With no Kelce, Andrerws, or Waller, he is at the top of the price chain at 6.3K but is currently Matt Ryan’s favorite target.
TJ Hockenson — Gets healthier every week, and lands the best matchup on the board.
Hunter Henry — One of my favorite TEs this week. 4 TDs in 4-straight. Attack those weaknesses as the Chargers are great on WRs, bad on TEs and RBs.
Ricky Seals-Jones — Getting the volume. The #2 WR for Washington at 3.8K. Hard to pass on him.
CJ Uzomah — Am I point and TD chasing here? Yes. But he is getting the ball in good places for an offense that’s clicking.
Mo Allie Cox — Also a TD machine, but doing so on very few routes ran or targets. One of these days he should surpass Jack Doyle.
Jared Cook and Donald Parham — One TD has a good game each week for the Chargers. Parham is the red zone threat and HAS to score to hit value.
Dan Arnold — Thru injuries, each JAX TE has played well including Arnold himself. Plus I do like Lawrence, so at 2.8K I don’t hate it.
Defense
Bengals — D Line advantage over the Jets. I can stomach the 3.3K price tag and almost lock them in.
Washington — Favorite value defense at 2.1K. They have not performed as better as “we thought” they would heading into the season. However, the D Line is great and should have Bridgewater under pressure.
Lions — Another cheapy I don’t hate. Hurts can and will turn the ball over and could hit value.
49ers — They’re playing Justin Fields. Advantage in the trenches as well.
Bills — They’re playing the Dolphins!! 35–0 last game vs Miami.
Browns — They’re playing Big Ben and will have him under immense pressure Sunday.
