Welcome to Week 9 of The OSG Report! Week 9 offers in my opinion a wide range of paths to success. I’ve narrowed down my player pool as far as I can on Saturday with some decisions to be made Sunday Morning. There are also a few questions marks on a few key players that can completely shift their games outcomes. Well…let’s get to!!!!
Quarterback
Josh Allen — He is Week 9s highest priced QB and clearly for reason especially once you bake in the matchup with Jags. He has players that you can confidently stack in Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley (my favorite if active). We saw Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf rip this defense apart last week. This could be a week to double stack Allen with two of his pass catchers.
Patrick Mahomes — It’s been tough sledding for KC. The matchup for tight ends here is pristine for Travis Kelce. He “appears” to have slowed down slightly. I believe defenses have caught up to them, and have schemed to limit Tyreek Hill, cover Kelce, and with no running game to speak of challenge a core of barely NFL level talent WR core beat them. It’s only half the season gone by so I’m willing to ride Mahomes/Kelce one more week as ownership in tournaments should be lower.
Lamar Jackson — MY FAVORITE QB OF THE WEEK gets the defense who made Cooper Rush look like a semi NFL talent last week. The Ravens have shifted to a passing team (mainly because of a 3-way RBBC bumfest). He has a healthy WR core beginning with my favorite stack mate here in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, and TE Mark Andrews (tough spot for TEs, but bet on the talent level all around). Lamar also comes in at a discount from Allen and Mahomes.
Justin Herbert — Oh my it’s been a rough 2-game sled riding the Herbert/Chargers train. They once again find themselves in a favorable spot vs this Philly defense in which I was willing to invest in Detroit last week. I can think of better defenses to face than Baltimore and New England, and that has a lot to do with Herbert’s last two box scores. Philly can be stingy on WRs, but for another week I’m willing to go Herbert to Mike Williams (price is back down, and so should ownership) and Keenan Allen who has been consistent thru the skid and Williams’ low box score. I’d almost rather go Herbert — Austin Ekeler as I believe it’s a great spot for his skill set. Versatile runner, pass catcher, and red zone threat in the middle of the field vs Philly. Herbert should spread the ball around with Williams, Allen, and even Jared Cook, so Herbert/Ekeler stacks garners a lot of usage for LA.
Dak Prescott — Ezekiel Elliott will be heavily used by the field Sunday, leaving Prescot — Amari Cooper stacks overlooked. Dak’s fantasy output does not look favorable in the box scores with such a great running game so far and has nothing to do with production, WR play, or play calling. I like the ceiling here for Cooper as CeeDee Lamb is banged up and considerably cheaper on DK.
Joe Burrow — I normally HATE divisional matchups especially the AFC North. We just saw Cleveland and Pittsburgh slug it out to a 15–10 slugfest. I’m willing to say that Burrow is much better than Big Ben right now and with a healthy fully-loaded supporting cast in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, CJ Uzomah (whom I love this week), and Joe Mixon, it’s hard to not have interest in the Cincy offense here vs Cleveland. The total is decent in a week where there are no totals jumping off the page and the game should stay 4-quarter competitive. Not to sale you on this offense and Burrow/Chase stacks EVERY WEEk, here’s Burrow’s placement in NFL rankings: 6th in yards, 3rd in yards per attempt, 3rd in TDs, and fantasy’s QB8. Chase: 3rd in yards, 4th in TDs, 2nd in 20+ yard completions, and leads the team in Burrow attempts with 59 (Boyd 53, Higgins, 49, Uzomah 23). You can even run this stack back with Nick Chubb. Fade at your own risk.
Derek Carr vs Daniel Jones — While I do not love either of these QBs, and will likely not have exposure to them, they do have pass catchers that I have interest in. So for some, that could lead to want to stack them here. I could see the Raiders/Giants game “getting up there” in point total. With Carr, it’s Renfrow, and Waller. On Jones side it’s a guessing game as to who is playing. The active WR roster will answer that, but I think with Shepard out, Slayton very very questionable, the only healthy WR here we trust is Kadarious Toney.
Jordan Love — Aaron Rodgers is ruled out and at 4.4K Love gets the start. If you believe that for one game vs the woeful defense + fast paced offense of the KC Chiefs that Love can find success, then you play he and Davante Adams in game stacks ran back with either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. You get this stack at a discount vs Rodgers/Adams. If we believe the passes to Aaron Jones continues, there’s more places to stack with Love on Sunday.
Wide Receiver — The studs
Davante Adams vs Tyreek Hill — Aside from stacks with Mahomes, I’ll have little Hill Sunday. I’m not sure how much the field chases Adams either, but it’s a downgrade at QB (we think) and price alone is always a reason to fade the two highest price WRs. Green Bay will try to slow the game down and force Mahomes to watch the game while KC will want to move the pace.
Deebo Samuel — He leads the league in yards per game. As long as Jimmy G is playing, he’s 8–10 receptions, 100+ yards/TD & YAC waiting to happen.
Stefon Diggs — We want to be out on him at his price (which will keep his ownership down), but he’s facing the Jags (see Seattle last week) and if you play Allen, you throw Diggs in a few stacks as well.
Ja’Marr Chase — YOU PLAY CHASE EVERY WEEK at this point. See stats above under Joe Burrow.
Justin Jefferson — It’s hard to trust Cousins, but Minnestota’s loses have come in close games to very quality opponents. We have seen the ceiling with Jefferson, and the Ravens are allowing 14.1 Yards per reception, and the 4th most 20+ yard receptions (32). A good spot to buy Jefferson at low ownership in a competitive game. We can play him in Lamar/Brown/Andrews stacks. There’s reasons to consider Adam Thielen.
Mike Williams & Keenan Allen — Keep stacking with Herbert. The results will come.
Mid-Range Value
Brandin Cooks — He’s been consistent with Davis Mills and now gets Tyrod Taylor back (who played well). Houston/Miami could be competitive.
Marquis Brown — We talked about him in stacks. A tremendous value at 6K.
Amari Cooper — Oh my. At 5.7K with Lamb banged up, and all eyes on Zeke…Great play.
Jaylen Waddle — He’s Tua’s favorite target. Tua of course needs to be active for he and any Dolphin play maker to be relevant Sunday.
Value Plays
Cole Beasley — As long as Dawson Knox is OUT, this is the Beasley we will see. See Tyler Lockett in the slot last week vs JAX.
Tee Higgins — The targets are there. The QB is there. Tough matchup.
Christian Kirk — IF D. Hopkins is out. We prefer Kyler Murray in, but he may be able to get a few shots with Colt McCoy in. But we have seen the McCoy show. We know what we are getting there.
Kadarius Toney — My favorite of the Giants WR core regardless of who else is active. The main piece is Shepard being ruled out. He is currently listed as doubtful.
Hunter Renfrow — The targets in the slot should be there in a potential shootout. Ruggs does not leave “a lot” of targets to be had, but a shift in the offense nonetheless.
Rondale Moore — At 4.2K If Kyler sits, the offense will be different. We could see more manufactured touches for Moore and maybe even Chase Edmonds, especially if D-Hop is out. They don’t trust Andy Isabella over the years, and may struggle vs 49ers defense.
Rashad Bateman — He’s questionable but on a good passing offense at 4K and is coming along in this offense. He should have a big game eventually before he sees the price hike.
Gabriel Davis — Long shot at 3.5K but got in the end zone last week. Has a role increase along side back up TE Tommy Sweeney (3K) for Buffalo as long as Knox is out.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara — Could be a good to great play paired with the Saints defense this week vs Atlanta.
Austin Ekeler — I really like Ekeler here for the 2nd straight week. Good matchup for his skill set.
Dalvin Cook — He will go completely over-looked and could see 25–28 touches in a game that could go back and forth.
Aaron Jones — If he continues to carry this pass catching role (which with TE Robert Tonyan done for the season he should), he’s in play each with. Even with AJ Dillon killing clock time, Jones can still see quality red zone touches, and chances to score in the passing game. Perhaps Green Bay goes run heavy to limit Mahomes with Rodgers set to miss Week 9.
Joe Mixon — I’m not a fan of Mixon here as his pass work goes up and down, mostly down. I do like this Cincy defense vs a banged-up Baker. Good defensive play gives RBs short fields and chances to score often.
Ezekiel Elliott — Also a great play with his defense, he should be popular. Home favorite vs a vulnerable defense who just traded away their best player. Zeke is in the pass game, and Dallas should roll here.
Nick Chubb — Seems as those whether it is Kareem Hunt, or D’Ernest Johnson, Cleveland would RATHER throw it to them, and give it to them inside the 5. He has to score from 20+ out (fully capable), or at least score a TD along the way to hit value. Cincy’s run defense at times can be average to vulnerable.
Cordarrelle Patterson — 7TDs so far, and best option alongside Kyle Pitts with no Calvin Ridley.
Damien Harris — It is a low game total but the Carolina offense is going from bad to worse. Harris and his New England defense could roll here. 20+ touches incoming.
Devontae Booker — His performances seem average, but at his price he’s a decent value play once again in a game his team could win.
Myles Gaskin — He should be in play regardless of who is in at QB. Tua bumps the whole offense, but if Brissett plays, he’s just going to check it down to Gaskin ALL DAY.
Boston Scott — I played Gainwell with no Miles Sanders, and I watched Scott and Jordan Howard trounce the Lions. His 2 TDs are hard to chase, but the Chargers are VERY VULNERABLE to the run and we have to take note of the RBs in Philly, especially at 5.2K price tag for Scott.
Tight End
Travis Kelce — He’s in the best spot he’s been in all-season long. Somewhat do or die time for KC.
Darren Waller — Should be ready to go as he almost played last game and had more time to rest. He’s in a GREAT SPOT vs the Philly defense in the middle of the field.
Kyle Pitts — Tough spot, but Ridley is out. Ridley despite missing two games is still the teams targets leaders. Just goes to show how much targets are to be head between Pitts and Patterson.
Mark Andrews — Tough spot, buy the QB, buy the offense, buy the talent.
Mike Gesicki — Dalton Schultz — Zach Ertz — Dallas Goedert — All playable especially in game stacks, but would rather spend up for the above mentioned at their price point or down for:
Hunter Henry — TD streak stopped, but his red zone share is hard to ignore.
CJ Uzomah — Great play, great matchup. ALWAYS play good TEs vs Cleveland (see last weeks box score vs Cleveland).
Jared Cook — In play with Herbert hurling 300+ yards.
Tommy Sweeney — TD or bust, could hit.
Albert O — Noah Fant looks to miss for Denver. Decent value and will be wildly popular in tournaments. The plus here is that he was already involved in the offense with Fant active.
Defense
Patriots — Tough to fit price tag, but should roll vs Carolina. TD potential/defense line advantage.
Bills — Same as New England. Tough to fit. Should smash.
New Orleans Saints — They’re in play every week in tournaments. Never know which Matt Ryan you’re getting. Defensive line advantage.
Cowboys — TD and pick 6 potential. Should be able to pressure Teddy B decently.
Bengals — Should bounce back from Jets performance as they may have overlooked Mike White. Sense of familiarity with Baker.
Raiders — Danny can be (has not been as much this year) turnover prone. Defensive line advantage could get to Jones here.
Packers — Chiefs could be great, or really bad. Green Bay’s defense is good and has been consistent in the fantasy points department.
49ers — In play vs a hobbled Kyler, and a great play vs Colt McCoy if Kyler is out.
