Elections Come, Elections Go, To Power Parties Come, But Do They Go?
Khattar Sarkar v2.0 and another season of the Great BJP-Sena fight
The results of the General Elections to the Assemblies of Maharashtra and Haryana were out on Thursday (24 October) and they threw up a major surprise. While Maharashtra gave majority to BJP-Shiv Sena Mahayuti, the saffron party managed to lose heavily in Haryana with eight sitting ministers losing their seats.
While the Opposition Congress managed to improve its fortunes in the northern state, it was the newly formed Jananayak Janata Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala that emerged kingmaker with 10 seats. Chautala eventually joined hands with the BJP in lieu of the post of Deputy Chief Minister. Quite unlike what happened in Delhi in 2013 or Karnataka in 2018.
Meanwhile in Maharashtra, the BJP was reduced to 105 seats, down from the 122 it had received in 2014 while its ally won 56, down from 63. Sena Supremo Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya won the Worli seat, making him the first in the family to win an election, and word is doing the rounds that he may be the next Deputy Chief Minister. The Sena is now insisting on the 50–50 formula — that includes the CM’s office to be shared for 2.5 years.
Haryana
The Jat-dominated state witnessed a repeat telecast of what happened a decade ago, albeit with a different party. In 2009, the Congress won nine out of the ten seats in the Lok Sabha elections, prompting chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda to advance the elections by six months, only to win 40 seats, down from 67 while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) came second with 31 seats, pretty much mirroring the current scene.
Of course a hung house is nothing new in India, especially in Haryana, the land of Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram. The election here serves as an important lesson for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress in the upcoming Delhi elections next year.
Maharashtra
Five years ago, Maharashtra voted in a four-way contest. Both the Congress and the NCP, and the Sena and the BJP fought independently with no party reaching a majority, ultimately resulting in the BJP coming to power with external support from the NCP. The Sena ultimately joined the government a few months later. This time, the contested together with the Sena finally coming to terms with the fact that it is the smaller one in the alliance.
While the BJP may invariably have to give the post of second-in-command to the Junior Thackeray, whether it agrees to the change in CMs in 2020 is yet to be seen. After all, nobody predicted their breakup in 2014, months after they romped home with 40 of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
Despite winning 303 seats on its own, the BJP has not let go of its allies, be it Nitish Kumar in Bihar, the Thackerays in Maharashtra or the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam combo in Tamil Nadu.
But what went wrong for the Saffron alliance?
Be it Haryana or Maharashtra, the common message for both states is clear.
One, the BJP cannot rely solely on Narendra Modi as its star campaigner every time. It needs to get a second rung of leaders at the state level to be the face of the government. Maharashtra is proof enough of this working while Haryana is evidence of what happens in the absence of a viable leader. For the Congress, meanwhile it is the opposite. It has strong regional leadership, but no strong leadership at the national level.
Two, the BJP and its allies should not let power go to their heads. Since 23 May, Modi-Shah has become brazen in their disregard for democracy and the democratic process. Haryana and Maharashtra have sent a happy reminder that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted, and nationalism does not fill people’s stomachs.
Three, all parties should understand the difference between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. The BJP trumped up Article 370, when it should have focussed on local issues.
Four, national issues do matter, however. India’s economic situation needs the attention of Modi and gang. India’s economy needs a lot of work, and neither nationalism nor welfarism will help.
However, now that the BJP has managed to retain both states, the party should ensure that the Prime Minister does not get on the campaign trail for the next election — Jharkhand — and instead focus on letting the state leadership focus on the elections.
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Contributed by Srikanth Ramakrishnan
