Elections UnInfluenced: a series by UnFound
Chapter 3: How jobless is India?
[Read the previous chapters: Chapter 1, Chapter 2].
As the nation is in the middle of its elections, one of the major factors that have ruled the season is the case of Unemployment- a poll promise to provide jobs in the country in the 2014 Indian General Election from PM Modi.
There has been an ongoing battle between the ruling party BJP and the opposition INC on whether the government has achieved its goals in providing jobs.
Should we trust the BJP-led government?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while calling the opposition claims on unemployment as a mere political gimmick, said that over 70 lakh jobs were created in the year 2017–18 alone, based on the data by Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO).
While EPFO data was reported, data by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said that the unemployment rate has shot up to 7.38%, majorly due to loss of jobs in the rural sector. Another report by Azim Premji University said that unemployment since 2011 has risen steadily, with the rate of unemployment in 2018 being 6% — double of what it was in the decade from 2000 to 2011.
Data leaks
A leaked report by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) already claimed job losses of 50 lakh from 2016 to 2018 due to the demonetisation. The organization had shown the unemployment rate currently is the worst in 45 years!
The government was prompt to term the leaked data as not final!
Not all people trust the sources of these data. Surjit Bhalla said that the data claiming 45-year peak in unemployment is misleading, Indian institutions are still operating with the technology and outlook of 70 years ago.
TV Mohandas Pai writes in the Financial Express,
The CMIE has been putting out alarmist reports without adequate data from a thin survey to back their stance. Recently, the CMIE put out a report saying there has been a reduction of 11 million jobs in the year 2018. Their analysis is based on a paper-thin sample survey conducted on just 1,40,000 respondents to determine job trends for a nation of over 1.3 billion people.
Did the demonetisation effect employment in India?
CMIE chief Mahesh Vyas in September 2018 said that the demonetisation may have caused job losses of at least 3.5 million. He added that the note ban hit the participation of young people in the labour force and hurt women more than men.
The Labour Minister Santosh Gangwar in the Parliament countered all claims and said there was no data available on unemployment subsequent to the period of demonetisation. The Ministry instead held firmly to citing Labour Bureau surveys on unemployment, which in its latest data stated that unemployment in the country stood at 3.7% in 2015–16.
108 economists vs 131 CAs
It was a major blow to the government when in a scathing letter in March, 108 economists challenged the credibility of the country’s official data by posing questions on government organisations. Their official statements said,
The national and global reputation of India’s statistical bodies is at stake. More than that, statistical integrity is crucial for generating data that would feed into economic policy-making and that would make for honest and democratic public discourse.
The letter was countered a few days later by 131 chartered accountants who stressed that the economic statistics in the country are not in shambles. The CAs, in fact, termed the raised concerns of the economists as baseless allegations with political motivations. They said,
Between 1960 to 2014, India had been left behind by all its peers from Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia, South Africa and Sri Lanka in economic growth. None of these economists or social scientists ever made an appeal in those 54 long years that India is on a slow track and is being left behind.
The key question that arises is, with unemployment being a major factor in the 2019 Indian Election, how much will it cost the BJP? Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for the final NSSO report.
This article was written by Bhakti Hargunani, using inputs from UnFound’s AI. UnFound’s AI brings in multiple perspectives and opinions to help our readers read both sides of a story and make a balanced decision. Download our app today!