Steal Rates In College Just Might Be The Best Indicator Of NBA Success
Correlation, of course, does not always mean causation. Nevertheless, Aidan Berg decided to take a closer look at the relationship between NBA stars and their steal rates in college
Editor’s Note: For the purpose of this article, steal rate is defined as “an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor.”
The other day, I came across a well-written profile of NBA Draft prospect Cam Reddish on SB Nation unsurprisingly headlined “Who is the real Cam Reddish?” Toward the end of the piece, writer Ricky O’Donnell referenced Reddish’s 2.9% steal rate in his one inconsistent year at Duke as a sign of encouragement. O’Donnell also wrote that the stat “historically is a strong predictor of success from college to the NBA,” with a hyperlink to a Twitter thread on the topic. Intrigued, I perused the thread and came away with a new perspective on the draft.
It was a list of the best steal percentage marks achieved by NBA stars during a single college season compiled by Jackson Hoy (@jacksonghoy). The message: many star NBA players posted a good steal rate during at least one college season (Hoy said that anything over roughly 2.5% is above average). Some of the absolute best of the best in today’s league — such as Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry and Anthony Davis — were on the list, among 10 other elite players.
I decided to do a deep dive and came up with some interesting results. I checked the best single-season college steal rate posted by any player drafted from 2010 to 2017 who has proven himself as a star or flashed even a small amount of star potential. Steal rates for seasons before 2010 aren’t listed on Sports Reference, so I had to rely on Hoy’s numbers for Curry and Harden. I also couldn’t find steal rates for players from leagues overseas, so foreign stars such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic were excluded. Asterisks mark players who only played one, significantly shortened college season.
Here’s what I found:
There are far more stars with above average steal rates than those with average or below-average marks in the category. In addition, the quality of players is much higher in the green column than in the others. The absolute best players in the league are included, along with guys close to that top level in Paul George, Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson. Meanwhile, Embiid and Towns are the only players in the yellow or red columns with a definitive claim as a top-20 player in the league.
If you buy into this as a legitimate determinant of NBA stardom, the next logical question is why that is the case. Players who are or have been bad defenders in the NBA — like Harden, Lillard and Kemba Walker — posted numbers better than lockdown defenders like Jimmy Butler and Myles Turner, so it’s not just a defensive translation.
My best guess is that a strong steal rate reflects an inherent understanding of the game and a strong basketball IQ. Players who lack the measurables to be lockdown defenders at the NBA level can rack up steals in the college game because they see the court well and can anticipate better than others. That intrinsic understanding of basketball is what unlocks star abilities as players complete their development. A player can fix his jump shot form and tighten his handle, but it’s impossible to teach naturally strong intelligence and reaction time on the court.
If you don’t buy into college steal rate’s correlation to NBA stardom, check out the numbers for the 2018 draft class.
By most accounts, Luka Dončić, Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were the best rookies this season (SGA was put on the All-Rookie Second Team because he was competing with Dončić and Young for the backcourt votes). That perception is reinforced by the steal rate numbers. Dončić should receive some benefit of the doubt as well because he came from a league with grown men, professionals with the experience to take better care of the ball than your average college player.
It’s also important to note that the standard drops for big men because it’s harder for them to get steals. Anthony Davis was one of the best collegiate defenders ever at Kentucky, but his steal rate is “only” 2.5. With that being said, Bulls and Grizzlies fans shouldn’t feel too crestfallen about Wendell Carter and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s low numbers just yet after their exciting seasons. As for DeAndre Ayton, a 1.0 mark is really, really bad, even for a big man.
How about the flip side? What about the biggest draft busts or disappointments?
Yes, there are far more busts with subpar steal rates, but the numbers from Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson and Markelle Fultz show that success in this area does not guarantee stardom. The five best single-season steal rates in college basketball history before this last season were posted by Briante Weber (he has the two highest marks of all time, which is hilarious because, well, who is Briante Weber?), Tra-Deon Hollins, Russ Smith and Paris Collins. Not exactly Hall of Famers.
So, my working theory is that an above average steal rate is almost a prerequisite for NBA stardom — but certainly does not guarantee it. It’s just one piece of a complicated puzzle. Let’s see the numbers for the high-profile 2019 prospects:
A few of my takeaways from this table:
- Everyone is right to believe in Zion Williamson’s potential. He has checked off yet another box in his quest to become the perfect prospect.
- Behind Zion and Reddish, Ja Morant and Jarrett Culver are the best bets to become stars because they combine the top pick pedigree among evaluators with elite steal rate. If you want your team to take a swing, you should be hoping for them to pick/trade up for Reddish or Culver since Morant and Zion are essentially off the board.
- I was never an R.J. Barrett fan, and this confirms my suspicions. Barrett could be a productive player in the NBA, but I have serious doubts about his star potential.
- Anyone hoping to snag Nassir Little in the mid-first round and steal a superstar, don’t hold your breath. That hope is better directed toward Nickeil Alexander-Walker (who I really like), Talen Horton-Tucker or Luguentz Dort.
- Players like Jaxson Hayes and Romeo Langford who have low steal rates and lack role player skills scare me. Hayes and Langford are high upside guys, but their steal rates suggest it’s even more unlikely than usual that they turn into stars; if they can’t provide secondary methods of production, what role will they fill in the NBA?
- Matisse Thybulle’s 6.7 steal rate is the third-best of all time, but as we saw earlier, that isn’t necessarily a good sign. If you’re putting up a number that gaudy, there’s some kind of catch that usually has to do with strength of competition. For Thybulle, it’s the Washington zone that allows him to roam all over the court. He was really good at it, and I believe in Thybulle as a solid role player in the NBA, but take that historic number with a grain of salt. The same can be said for Tremont Waters and Shamorie Ponds, who lack the elite physical tools that translate to stardom.
- De’Andre Hunter, PJ Washington and Keldon Johnson are players who have been tagged with the high floor-low ceiling designation, an evaluation backed up by their low steal rates.
- Chuma Okeke and Terence Davis are guys I would target as second round picks who could have a star impact down the line, along the lines of Draymond Green and Khris Middleton.
In the end, drafting is far from an exact science; that’s why so few executives succeed at it. Like I said, having a strong steal percentage doesn’t guarantee you stardom. However, it may be one of many prerequisites for becoming a true difference maker.
So beware if you’re a Knicks fan: that star potential you may see in R.J. Barrett could be an illusion.
Aidan Berg is a student studying journalism at University of Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter here.
