Ch27. Unwrapping CMF Design on Trend Forecasting, Believe or Not?
As a long-standing hot topic in CMF Design, trend forecasting is sometimes misinterpreted, and is perhaps one of the most difficult CMF skill to self-learn. (中文版)
CMF is a specific discipline within industrial design that focuses on the development of a product’s color, material, and finish. Unwrap CMF shares bite-sized stories of CMF Design to inform and inspire those interested in this niche yet fascinating field, with digestible contents for anyone and everyone.
Firstly, trend forecasting does not equal to competitor analysis. “Forecast” means looking into the future, but the latter relies on existing products in the market instead of future trends. That doesn’t mean competitor analysis is no use at all. It has its own pros, cons, and suitable applications.
Trend forecasting is also often challenged for being obscure. Try this: trend forecasting is like stock investment. We usually make a market research before buying stocks: how has it perform lately, what has been happening globally, to predict the future movements of the stock.
Even if you have done your homework, not every investment will go as you wish.
However, if you invest randomly without any research, your chance of success is no higher than lottery.
That says, the key of trend forecasting is the analysis of social movements. First, we must observe the changes in the world, what does that mean to people, and then transform the findings into design language. I have mapped out the methodology into the following four steps.
𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩 1️⃣ Insights of Social Changes: What are the major events that have recently brought impacts to the society?
𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩 2️⃣ Analysis of Emotional Climate: Which consumers’ collective emotions have these events caused?
𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩 3️⃣ Solution for Emotional Negativity: What eliminates these negativity in consumer emotions?
𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩 4️⃣ Translate into Design Element: How to visualize these emotional solutions?
Many companies such as well-known Pantone, WGSN, and major paint brands, may be doing their trend research differently, but never without these key steps.
This is just an introduction to trend forecasting. In the future, each step will be unwrapped, as well as podcast interviews with experts in the field. Stay tune💅🏻
Enjoy learning? Use the CMF terminologies mentioned above and continue on with your own research journey on the web. Comments and inspirations are welcome!
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