What’s worse than a super typhoon? A strange question in a country where storms regularly drown fields and turn roads into rivers. But it’s the quiet ones you watch out for, and slow-onset climate change impacts are exactly that: a disaster no one sees coming.
What may not be immediately evident with climate change is its gradual nature. Over decades greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere and trap heat raising global temperature. Likewise, slow-onset impacts are chronic hazards. They build up over years or decades, subtly disrupting the fundamental conditions of life.
Surface temperatures of Western Pacific seas have risen by about 0.23°C per decade since 1981. Doesn’t seem much, until you realize coral reefs only survive within a narrow temperature range of 23–29°C. Four weeks of exposure to temperatures beyond the range results in bleaching (Cruz et. al., 2017). By 2050, a projected 90 percent of all coral reefs will be wiped out (Abuyuan, 2014).
Sea level rise is innocuous. Melted glacier water accumulates in millimeter size increments. Yet for an archipelagic country the danger is particularly acute. Philippine sea level rise has been triple that of the global average. It’s enough to put 167,000 hectares of coastland at risk (IDRC, 2015). Fifty-one percent of all coastal wetlands may disappear by 2100. And as the sea approaches, it will foul nearby soil and freshwater with salt.
Even more alarming are changes in precipitation patterns. Dry days will get drier and wet days wetter. A 10 percent increase in rainfall will occur by 2099, mostly as bursts of heavy rain. Paradoxically, at the same time, El Niño dry spells are expected to become even more severe in both intensity and length.
It’s a gradual disaster. By 2050 water shortages are expected to hit 981 million people in Southeast Asia. The Angat Dam in the same year may fall thousands of liters short of demand. Weakening harvests are paired with declining fisheries. Every 1°C increase in minimum temperature causes a 10% decrease in grain yields. Fish catches are expected to drop with the degradation of marine habitats (Cruz et. al., 2017). The overwhelming crisis of the future will be a lack of accessible food.
None of the above are getting enough attention. It’s hard to comprehend events that unfold so far in the future. Notice the dates. “By 2050…,” “By 2100…” Intervals are measured in decades.
The problem isn’t just how they happen so slowly. It’s also how they’re so mundane. There’s no catastrophic wake-up call. No tragic loss of life. Just rainfall levels decreasing by millimeters year by year until, at a loss, we are left with nothing to drink at all.
Calamity rightly commands immediate attention. Typhoons achieve headlines days before they even hit. Afterwards come a slew of reports: lives lost, homes swept away, damages to crops and livelihoods. There is a scramble for volunteers, for donations, for anything that can be done for the afflicted victims.
But what of matters not so dramatic yet equally urgent? Would they get similar attention? Voters, after all, probably won’t be looking. There’s not exactly anything to look at. Extreme drought, maybe. Flash floods, perhaps. But a coastline that recedes inch by inch per year? That flies all too easily under the radar, and with it, a budget allocation. The Philippines, though among the most climate vulnerable countries in the world, maintains only four tide stations under the Global Sea Level Observing System (Abuyuan, 2014).
For scientists, addressing the climate problem is twofold. For one, they need to forecast the future. According to Lourdes Tibig, a leading contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, we need at least 30 years of data to build a model accurately predicting the impacts of climate change (Abuyuan 2014).
But for science to matter it has to go beyond the lab. It is also the scientist’s responsibility to assert the rights of those most exposed to climate change, often communities pushed to the margins of society. Just as critical, scientists should ensure their work is known and acted upon. After all, what’s the point of a warning if it isn’t heard? Or just ignored? The scale of our problem is such that data will not be enough. Climate action, informed by the best research possible, has to start now, else we will contend with the consequences for generations to come. #
References:
Abuyuan, R. (2014). Slow onset climate change impacts: What it is, why should we care, and what we can do about it. Quezon City, NCR: Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities.
Cruz, R. V. O., Aliño, P. M., Cabrera, O. C., David, C. P. C., David, L. T., Lansigan, F. P., … Villanoy, C. L. (2017). 2017 Philippine climate change assessment: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation. Pasig City, NCR: The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. and Climate Change Commission.
International Development Research Centre (IDRC). (2015). Parts of Philippines may submerge due to global warming. ScienceDaily. Retrieved September 14, 2018 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151021104913.htm
