What’s happening in the Italian election?
It’s completely and utterly unpredictable
Italy has gone to the polls today for a general election and the exit polls point to a hung parliament with no outright winner.
The final outcome is anyone’s guess and no-one is expecting the post-election stability that the country urgently needs.
Why the election matters
Italy is Europe’s fourth largest economy. With a €2.3tn (£2.1tn) debt load, a stagnant economy and right-wing populism errupting on the streets, Italy is seen as a risk not just to itself but to the EU.
What might happen?
So if no-one wins, who wins? Negotiations to form a government are expected to be long and arduous.
There are three main blocs vying for control. The Five Star Movement, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, is polling as the largest single party. A coalition of rightwing parties, assembled by the 81-year-old Silvio Berlusconi, is close behind. And then there’s the erstwhile prime minister Matteo Renzi and his centre-left Democratic Party.
Once billed as the Italian Tony Blair, the 43-year-old is already being talked of as a has-been.
Who’s going to be prime minister?
It’s not going to be Silvio Berlusconi. At least, not yet (more on him later).
There is no official candidate for prime minister on the ballot. The president of the republic, Sergio Mattarella, and the newly elected senators and representatives will be free to appoint whomever they wish. And with the current state of play, it is difficult to see how the leaders of any of the three biggest parties could actually become prime minister.
Like we said: unpredictable.
Silvio Berlusconi
Boasting 65 governments in 73 years, Italy is a country where political dysfunction is the norm. The closest the country has come to stability in recent times is the notorious Silvio Berlusconi.
Infamous for his ‘bunga bunga’ parties, the billionaire businessman has nevertheless been prime minister no less than four times and, for a while, seemed to effortlessly brush off scandal.
Although he is undeniably a colourful character, within Italy he is a familiar authority figure who wields great influence, regardless of what is going on in his bank accounts or personal life.
We admit it’s easy to get distracted by the latest tweaks he’s made to his appearance, but the 81-year-old remains a towering presence in Italian politics.
Due to a 2013 tax fraud conviction, Berlusconi is barred from holding political office himself, but as the leader of the centre-right Forza Italia party, he is likely to be a major power broker in the days to come.
(If you’re wondering what this is all about…. 😳)
What the parties are promising
Immigration has been a prominent issue in this election but also a long-standing concern for a country on the edge of Europe’s shores.
The arrival of 630,000 migrants since 2014 has created fertile ground for virulent anti-migrant rhetoric, culminating in a far-right extremist with neo-Nazi sympathies shooting and wounding six Africans in the central Italian town of Macerata.
But the economy, taxes and unemployment are also riding high in the minds and hearts of Italians. Oh and brothels. That’s Lega Nord’s thing…🤐
How did we get here?
If this all sounds ridiculously chaotic, then it’s not all down to Berlusconi and the Five Star Movement.
According to those who study and pontificate, the seeds of Italy’s dysfunction were sown long ago. Like 1,500 years ago.
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