What are you looking for in your first round pick?

It’s pretty simple; Todd Gurley is the favorite because of his role and the offense he plays on. Photo credit: Harry How — https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/todd-gurley-of-the-los-angeles-rams-scores-a-35-yard-news-photo/1081703784?share=site_twitter

Not who, but what are you looking for? I think when you look at it that way, it might help you narrow it down in a way that you haven’t thought about. You can look at stats, but there’s more to it. Here’s a look at my process and what I’m looking for in my first pick:

1. Safety — Least risk possible
2. Reliability — Can I rely on them and their role to carry my team?
3. Upside — Can they win me weeks?
4. Consistency — Least amount of duds possible. Give me a very high floor every week

I probably want a RB, mostly because of the combination:

1. Position scarcity
2. High floor
3. Highest chance of consistent upside

The RBs I’m looking for with my first pick have the following attributes:

1. 3-down workhorse: involved in passing game, and doesn’t come off the field for those situations
2. Goal line back
3. Good offense
4. Related to #1, but will play a high percentage of snaps — 70%+, 80%+ is elite

Guys who fit that mold:

1. Todd Gurley
2. Christian McCaffrey*
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Melvin Gordon
5. James Conner
6. Saquon Barkley*

*offense can be a concern

And if any RBs 2nd round or later have these attributes at a next-tier type of level, I’m aiming for them too.

Remaining 3-down backs:

1. Le’Veon Bell — would assume he’ll land in a workhorse role, but offense is TBD
2. Alvin Kamara — a lot rides on whether Ingram stays or leaves, but Payton can still have a guy share the load with Kamara if it’s for a full season. Either way, Kamara is an anomaly that is worth the risk of a lesser workload.
3. Joe Mixon — new coach might change things; he gets enough passing work to be happy, but Gio limits his upside
4. Dalvin Cook — offensive line needs to be improved upon before trusting him. Injury issues make him risky as well.
5. David Johnson — offense can’t get worse, aerial attack should play to his strengths. Will be value after down year.
6. Jerick McKinnon — injury history is definitely worrisome, and will play on all three downs, but not every down. He’ll likely have someone being his 1b.
7. Damien Williams — as of right now, he’s KC’s guy. Keep an eye out for additions to the backfield.
8. Leonard Fournette — With TJ Yeldon becoming a FA, Fournette might have more work in passing situations

Originally published at upperhandfantasy.com on January 17, 2019.