Russia 2018: The Predictions (Part 2)
The Surprise Package:
Last time around it was Colombia and Costa Rica that surpassed expectations and made it to the quarter finals of the World Cup. Before that it was Ghana in 2010. In 2002 we saw South Korea and Turkey both get to the semi-finals against all the odds. So who will it be this time? Which underdog will capture the imagination of the footballing world? Group C and H respectively contain four of the contenders to do so.
Peru:They beat the likes of Copa América champions Chile to qualify in arguably the most difficult route to Russia. Victories in that campaign over Argentina and Uruguay are evidence that they have the potential to shock some of the bigger names from their own continent. Meanwhile they’ve been impressive in their warm-up games, showing that they can mix it in Europe as well. Crucially, Peru have received a timely boost in having their talisman Paolo Guerrero available for Russia despite a failed drugs test, whilst veteran forward Jefferson Farfán has also hit form at the perfect time; the pair could well be critical in any quest to surprise the world this summer.
Denmark: They needed a play-off victory over Ireland to secure their spot in the finals, and they largely have hat-trick-hero Christian Eriksen to thank for that. If the Danes hope to have a successful run in Russia this summer, then the Tottenham Hotspur midfielder will no doubt be key. Beyond that, they have a solid defensive partnership in Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen and the experienced Simon Kjær, whilst Kasper Schmeichel is a commanding presence between the sticks. They failed to qualify four years ago, but this time around there’s an optimism that they can emulate what they did in France 98 and go far in the competition. The side haven’t lost a match in over a year.
Colombia: Narrowly lost to Brazil in the quarter finals last time out, James Rodríguez inspired his side to victories in all three of their group matches and a win over Uruguay in the last 16. The now Bayern Munich play-maker will once again be the star-name of a country hoping to repeat such a feat. This Colombia side still feature many of the stars of 2014, and this time around Radamel Falcao is fit to make his World Cup bow, having been previously injured. It’s a side that also features two promising defenders in the imposing Yerry Mina and Davinson Sánchez — so there’s a good mix of youth and experience in José Pékerman’s side. A 3–2 victory over France in March was encouraging.
Poland: With an average age of nearly 28, they have one of the oldest squads in the competition. Yet they will hope to use that more of an experienced advantage, rather than focus on concerns over whether they can maintain the intensity. In Wojciech Szczęsny, Kamil Glik, Łukasz Piszczek and Grzegorz Krychowiak they certainly have a seasoned spine, which they hope will dovetail well with the more youthful Napoli duo Piotr Zieliński and Arkadiusz Milik. They reached the quarter finals of Euro 2016 and following suit in this competition will be see as something not outside the realms of possibility, especially when you have a world class striker like Robert Lewandowski spearheading your attack.
Who Could Flop in Russia?
France suffered group stage humiliation in 2002 and 2010; the then two previous holders of the trophy Spain and Italy went out at the same stage in 2014. So which side could be at risk of a premature exit this summer?
There’ll be much scrutiny as to whether France and Belgium manage to get such a talented generation of footballing talent to gel, and there are now suggestions that Spain sacking their manager on the even of the tournament could throw a spanner in the works. However the real candidate this time around is Argentina.
Their form has been worrying, to say the least. Not only did they just about scrape qualification after winning only seven of a possible eighteen games, but their outings this year have been an equal cause for concern — particularly a 6–1 dismantling to Spain in March.
A chief reason behind such underwhelming performances are largely down to an unbalanced squad. For one thing Argentina are top-heavy; they boast a formidable forward line that includes Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín, Paulo Dybala and Lionel Messi. Gelling this array of talent has been something of a conundrum for coach Jorge Sampaoli, particularly utilising Messi and Dybala in a way that yields the best from the pair. Such is their wealth in attacking options, Mauro Icardi (joint top-scorer in Italy last season) did not even make the final 23, yet there is still a reliance on Messi to provide the goods — he scored 42% Argentina’s goals in qualifying.
The real problem is at the other end though; defensively there is a significant dip in quality. Javier Mascherano, the heartbeat of the side four years ago, is now 34 and plying his trade in China as he approaches the twilight of his career. There is no Roberto Ayala, Javier Zanetti or Pablo Zabaleta now, as Argentina possess the weakest defensive tools they’ve had in recent memory, whilst just 19 goals in qualifying suggest such a sharp attack is suffering from a blunt midfield that lacks ingenuity.
In terms of the immediate challenge facing them though, there’s a few potential banana skins in Group D. You only have to ask England about the risks of underestimating tournament ‘minnows’ Iceland, whilst Croatia have a strong side on paper with Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Mario Mandzukic at their disposal. It’ll also be the third successive time they’ve faced Nigeria in the this stage of the competition — a side who inflicted a 4–2 defeat on them last autumn.
The ray of hope is that Argentina do what they usually do, and step up once the World Cup begins. After all, they did make it to the final four years ago. Lionel Messi will certainly have to be at his very best if they wish to do so again.
By Dom Chandler for Urban Central @Frankly2Shankly on Twitter
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