再见2020，你好2021
Key Highlights
- Difficulty dropping with hashrates still leveled on average
- Hashribbon indicator showing a continuation of bullish strength
- Taproot upgrade support from our mining pool
- Have a happy new year from Valarhash!
The past two weeks of the month, and of 2020, have given us more than just an increase in blocks mined or a showcase of the continuation of rug pulls in DeFi, but it’s given us an accentuated amount of hope that we can all carry into the year of 2021 (which by the way is the calendar year of the bull). Since our last bi-weekly miner update, BTC has risen from around 19k to a current level hovering around 28k.
The wildly popular indicator, the Stock-to-Flow model by Plan B, actually should pit bitcoin’s price at around 35k at the time of this publication, indicating that we are still below the Stock-to-Flow ratio. This is something all bitcoiners should be ok with as by and large, the trend is following “close enough” for now.
But despite the price rocketing over the past month, hashrates have been average between an oscillating band between 140 EH/s and 130 EH/s. A mixture of local reports of electricity shortages in the 四川 province and long waiting times for new mining rig orders. This is in line with what we here at Valarhash is experiencing with the backlog of our mining rig orders from different manufacturers. The earliest availability for the latest generational miners, especially the S19s from Bitmain, will take until mid-2021 for it to be fulfilled. For the time being, 1TMine, our hash rate contract platform, does offer the alternate Antminer T19 rigs, which has current profitability of about $10/day running over 80 TH/s.
A lot of our mining rigs are actually currently sold out including the recent popular availability of the ETH Miner Z1 being sold out for 3–4 consecutive batches.
The past two weeks have seen difficulty drop due to the backlog of miner orders across the mining ecosystem allowing miner profitability to peak back up to levels that are lucrative, even for those newcomers in the industry. This has at least allowed more interested miners to the party as the difficulty is expected to increase by about 4% in the next 10 days.
As a part of these bi-weekly miner updates, we would also like to educate our community on different metrics used throughout the industry. One metric used that is not so commonly used in technical analysis is the Hash Ribbon indicator by Charles Edwards. Essentially what it entails is taking the separate simple moving averages of the hash rates trends, using the 30 days SMA and the 60 days SMA. In trading technical analysis, this is somewhat equivalent to the MACD indicator. The definition of the Hash Ribbon indicator is below:
“Because of the effect of negative sentiment and price action during deep bear markets and times of miner capitulation, the best time to buy Bitcoin is typically somewhere in the middle of the “miner capitulation” period. But of course, this cannot be known until after the fact… When the 1-month SMA of Hash Rate crosses over the 2-month SMA of Hash Rate, the worst of the miner capitulation is typically over, and the recovery has begun. Buying at these points of time yields incredible results as shown below.” — Charles Edwards
As seen on the chart, the current 30 days SMA of hashrates is still well above the 60 day SMA indicating a continuation of bullish movement. But if you look closely, the two trend lines seem to be slowly contracting towards each other.
Another interesting trend we see playing out over the past year is the slow increase in block sizes. Although block sizes can technically reach around 2 MB, we have seen higher lows of this trend play out as seen on the chart below. Block sizes in bytes are now reaching levels near 1.3 MB or even 1.4 MB.
The block size debate has been going on for years and as we have mentioned in the previous update, our own mining pool, 1THash, is a proud supporter of the Taproot upgrade. In essence, the upgrade will allow block sizes to stay small, improve transaction privacy, and enhance Bitcoin’s smart contract capabilities. All in all, we think this is a major necessary upgrade to the network with the majority of mining pools indicating support for the Taproot upgrade.
To wrap up the year of 2020 we all hurtfully have experienced, there is a silver lining…well, maybe more of an orange lining, and that is bitcoin. The year of 2021 is aiming to be a big year of bitcoin with predictions of price shooting up to $100k. This will subsequently see more mining interest from newcomers and existing miners as we have seen recently with Marathon Patent announcing their intention of buying 70,000 ASIC miners from Bitmain and Riot Blockchain announcing it would purchase 15,000 mining rigs. Both of these announcements have seen publicly traded mining stocks rally over the past few days.
The year 2021 will see more competition in the space which will fortunately also bring more transparency to a historically closed-off industry. Data and transparency are what Valarhash strives for on a daily basis with our community. Pushing the wrong buttons can see problems arise as we did with Layer 1’s lawsuits and a lawsuit against a mining farm in upstate New York called, Greenidge, for improper environmental impacts related to their mining farm.
Community responsibility is what we all should strive for. So as we close off the whirlwind of the 2020 we had, Valarhash would like to thank you all in believing in our mission. So stay safe, celebrate wisely, trade responsibly, mine properly, and HODL perpetually. Cheers!
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
About Valarhash
Chengdu-based Valarhash integrates mining machine sales, miner hosting, mining pool, and mine construction services. Led by CEO Fiona Lv, Valarhash aims to provide users with transparent and beneficial mining plans using advanced technology, with lower barriers of entry. Business operations cover hardware research and development, digital asset transactions and 1TMine hash power contract sharing. With a leading position in the hash power market, Valarhash integrates frontier resources with global vision, providing crypto compute service (CCS) and linking physical and digital worlds with blockchain technology.
For more information, please visit:
Website: https://www.valarhash.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/VaIarhash
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Valarhash
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/vhash/
Medium: https://medium.com/Valarhash
Telegram: https://t.me/valarhashx1tmine_bitcoin
Media Contact
Email: BD@vhash.io
