Market Pulse — Day in Review — S&P500, NASDAQ, Commodities, Bitcoin — 2024–06–18

Vanguard Reports

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Vanguard — MarketPulse

7 min readJun 18, 2024

Comprehensive Weekly Market Overview and Insights: June 18, 2024

I. Overall Market Analysis

The US equity market continued its relentless rally, with the S&P 500 index closing at a new record high of 5,487.03 on June 18th, 2024. This represents a 0.25% gain for the day and a 3.47% increase over the past 30 days, showcasing the remarkable resilience and strength of the US equity market.

Quantitative Analysis: The S&P 500 opened the day at 5,476.15 and traded in a range of 5,471.32 to 5,490.38 before closing at 5,487.03. The index saw a trading volume of 0 shares, which is below the 3-month average of 2,362,808,064 shares. Technical indicators point to a “Strong Buy” signal on the daily timeframe, a “Neutral” signal on the weekly timeframe, and a “Sell” signal on the monthly timeframe. The 52-week range for the S&P 500 is 4,103.78 to 5,490.38, highlighting the index’s remarkable upward trajectory over the past year.

Economic Implications: The new record high in the S&P 500 reflects the continued strength and resilience of the US equity market, despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Factors contributing to this rally include robust corporate earnings, accommodative monetary policy, and investor optimism around the economic recovery. However, concerns remain around elevated inflation, rising interest rates, and the potential for a slowdown in economic growth. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of a shift in these trends.

Sector Performance: The technology sector was a standout performer, led by a surge in Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which became the most valuable US-listed company, surpassing Microsoft (MSFT). Other notable gainers included energy and materials stocks, benefiting from the ongoing strength in commodity prices. Conversely, some consumer discretionary and healthcare stocks experienced modest declines, potentially reflecting concerns about the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on consumer spending.

Outlook and Recommendations: The S&P 500’s record high suggests that the market remains in a bullish trend, driven by a combination of strong fundamentals and investor optimism. However, the mixed sector performance and the potential for increased volatility due to macroeconomic uncertainties warrant a cautious and selective approach to investing. Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios, focusing on high-quality, defensive stocks, and maintaining a close watch on economic data and policy developments that could impact the market’s trajectory.

II. S&P 500 and Stock Market

The S&P 500 index has continued its strong performance, closing at a new record high of 5,487.03 on June 18th, 2024. This represents a 0.25% gain for the day and a 3.47% increase over the past 30 days. The index has been buoyed by a number of factors, including the ongoing strength of the US economy, robust corporate earnings, and the growing influence of the technology sector.

Key Data Points:

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,490.38 on June 18th, 2024, surpassing the previous record set in late May.
Over the past 30 days, the index has ranged from a low of 5,191.68 to a high of 5,490.38, with an average closing price of 5,343.17.
Trading volume has been relatively high, with the 30-day average volume standing at 2,362,808,064 shares.
Sector-wise, technology stocks have been the standout performers, led by the meteoric rise of Nvidia (NVDA), which has now surpassed Microsoft (MSFT) as the most valuable US-listed company.

Technical Analysis:

The S&P 500’s technical indicators are firmly in bullish territory, with the index displaying a “strong buy” signal across multiple time frames.
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both sloping upwards, indicating a strong long-term uptrend.
Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD are also firmly in overbought territory, suggesting the index may be due for a short-term pullback.
Key support levels are identified at 5,471.32 and 5,403.75, while resistance is seen at 5,490.38 and 5,562.00 (the September 2024 futures contract).

Outlook and Predictions:

Analysts remain broadly bullish on the S&P 500, with Citi recently raising its year-end 2024 target to 5,600 and initiating a 2025 projection of 5,800.
The continued strength of the US economy, coupled with the dominance of the technology sector, is expected to drive further gains in the index over the coming months and years.
However, risks such as elevated inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions could lead to increased volatility and periodic pullbacks.

In conclusion, the S&P 500 has demonstrated remarkable resilience and momentum, reaching new record highs and showcasing the underlying strength of the US equity market. While short-term volatility is always a possibility, the long-term outlook for the index remains firmly positive, driven by the robust performance of leading companies and the broader economic recovery.

III. Overall Commodity Market Analysis

The commodities market has seen mixed performance across various sectors over the past week, with some key commodities exhibiting notable price movements and volatility. Our rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis delves into the underlying drivers, implications, and potential future developments in this dynamic market.

Crude Oil and Energy:

Crude oil prices, as represented by WTI and Brent, have shown moderate gains of around 1.3% and 0.02% respectively over the past trading day. This can be attributed to a combination of factors, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, supply-demand dynamics, and investor sentiment.
Natural gas prices have surged by 4.12% today, likely driven by increased demand, supply disruptions, and weather-related factors impacting the energy complex.
The TR/CC CRB Crude Oil and TR/CC CRB Natural Gas indices have also reflected these price movements, with the former remaining flat and the latter showing a 0% change.

Precious Metals:

Gold prices have increased by 0.65%, while silver has gained 0.75% over the past trading session. This can be partly explained by safe-haven demand, inflationary pressures, and shifting monetary policy expectations.
The TR/CC CRB Gold index has remained unchanged, indicating a relatively stable performance in the precious metals sector.

Agriculture and Softs:

Agricultural commodities have exhibited mixed results, with corn and cotton showing modest gains of 1.13% and 1.30% respectively, while wheat and coffee have declined by 1.61% and 0.40%.
The performance of these agricultural products is likely influenced by factors such as weather conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments impacting global trade flows.

Commodity Indices:

The broader commodity indices, such as the TR/CC CRB and DJ Commodity Index, have registered gains of 0.89% and 0.82% respectively, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the commodities market.

Macroeconomic Factors and Outlook:

The commodities market continues to be shaped by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, including monetary policy decisions, inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and evolving supply-demand dynamics.
Going forward, market participants will closely monitor the impact of central bank actions, the trajectory of inflation, and any potential disruptions to global supply chains, all of which could significantly influence the performance of various commodity sectors.

Conclusion:

The commodities market has exhibited a mixed performance over the past trading session, with some sectors, such as energy and precious metals, showing notable price movements, while others, like agriculture, have displayed more muted results. Our comprehensive analysis underscores the need for a multifaceted approach to understanding the drivers and implications of these market dynamics, as well as the importance of closely monitoring the evolving macroeconomic landscape to anticipate future developments in the commodities space.

IV. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis via BTC Price Movement

The cryptocurrency market has seen significant volatility over the past 30 days, with Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trading in a wide range of $64,098 to $71,956. The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at around $2.36 trillion, with Bitcoin dominating at 54.8% of the total market.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis:

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen a net decline of around 3.2%, trading in a range between $64,098 and $71,956.
The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently at $68,338, providing a key support level. Prices have dipped below this SMA on several occasions, indicating potential short-term bearish pressure.
The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are currently at $67,530 and $67,761 respectively, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish long-term trend.
Volatility, as measured by the daily range, has been relatively high, with an average daily range of around $7,858 over the past month.
Key support levels to watch are $64,098 (recent low) and the 200-day SMA around $67,761. Resistance is seen at the recent high of $71,956.

Market Sentiment and Adoption:

According to Grayscale Investments, one in six Americans now own cryptocurrency assets, highlighting the growing mainstream adoption of digital assets.
The crypto industry has also seen significant infrastructure development and institutional capital inflows, further solidifying its position as a viable asset class.
However, the market remains highly volatile and susceptible to external factors such as regulatory changes and macroeconomic conditions.