Is a 50-Year Future Vision Even Worth It?
It is apparent that 50-year predictions almost never go according to plan, nevermind 300-year predictions. So why are companies still investing heavily in outlandish future scenarios far beyond the scope of predictability? Because what most enterprises believe is that the return on investment (RoI) is far larger if they stay ahead of the competition.
Often, businesses look far beyond their current capabilities into the future in search of the “Blue Oceans” (Blue Ocean refers to unknown and untapped market space that is full of opportunity and profitable growth). When they find them, they can settle down and cash in on their hard-earned RoI. This is due to the “first mover” advantage and little to no competition. However, once the other sharks get a whiff of your blue ocean, they’re going to look at invading your space. To protect your returns, high barriers of entry are going to deter sharks from trying to take a bite out of your prized fish. Otherwise, your first mover advantage may end up being some temporary benefits making your high investments a lost cause.
Companies are banking on long-term foresight to develop the capabilities, infrastructure, and assets to build high enough barriers ahead of their competitors. In general, 50-year visions into the future landscape are only worth it if you are in an industry with high requirements for investment to enter the specific business segment, and/or if it will likely put you into a leading position.
As an example, energy companies are focusing on new technologies and applications for them so that they can test, develop and optimize new business areas before the future arrives. In contrast, textile companies and other FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) companies foresee fewer years ahead as the transformation can take less time to transition or develop new capabilities.
Example: Ørsted (formerly known as DONG Energy) transitioned to renewable energy production, betting big on being able to develop the technology and capabilities that would compete with carbon-based energy production. In order to do so, it takes many years and a lot of investment. As you can see below, Ørsted targets were to hit 99% green energy by 2025 with the transformation starting in 2006. Although, I would speculate that the company monitored trends and gathered intelligence for several years before to justify the $25 billion investment.
How far does your industry look in the future?
…and are you anticipating the protection of high entry barriers on your organization's position?
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