MLS is Back predictions: Group Phase
If you think the March Madness brackets are impossible to predict, MLS takes that to a whole new level. No stats, cheat sheets, or regular seasons to go off of, and with the MLS is Back tournament being played inside of the Orlando “bubble,” literally anything can happen.
We’re now just one week away from kicking off MLS is Back and fans can challenge each other in the MLS’s Bracket Challenge sponsored by Audi for bragging rights and pretty cool prizes. Fans are only allowed to predict the group stage outcome as knockout seedings will be determined based on the qualifying teams’ points. In Groups B-F, fans were to select the first and second place finishers, along with three wild card third place finishers that would also qualify to the round of 16. For Group A, the lone six-team group, three qualifiers must be selected. The bracket can be accessed at bracket.mlssoccer.com.
My thought process was to simply not overthink it. I mean what stats are there to consider? No home-field advantage, no injuries, no games for over three months, the playing field was pretty fair yet unpredictable. Given that, let’s dive into my picks.
Group A: A group with no true standouts in the opening weeks of the season made arriving at my placement order a real tossup. The group features three of the league’s four 0–2 teams (NYCFC, Inter Miami, and Nashville SC) and the remaining teams started 0–1–1. Again, it’s pretty hard to read anything into those results.
Instead, I divided the group into a set of 3 tiers: The dominant, inconsistent, and newbie tiers. So that’s why I had the Union and NYCFC in my top two slots. Two very similar teams who aside from a few key offseason losses for the Union, have very similar rosters to the ones that got them into the Eastern Conference’s top 3 last season. While I predicted that the two teams would draw and that they’ll ultimately finish with the same record, the deciding factor for me was which team would have the most productive goal scorers. Both NYCFC’s Héber and Union’s Kacper Przybyłko are proven goal scorers, but I think the Union’s offense will edge NYCFC’s by just a goal or two. It will be close but I think NYCFC still needs to adjust to new coach Ronny Deila’s tactics, whereas Jim Curtin has already proven he knows how to get his team to perform well in key games.
Then there’s host Orlando City and the Chicago Fire in the inconsistent tier. The trend for these teams seems to be to sign new big-name players, watch them underperform, miss the playoffs, release starters, and repeat. These two are always among the most active during the offseason but are then among the most frustrating to watch during the regular season. However, this year the Fire made serious club changes. Aside from new personnel, they have a new name, colors, stadium and seem way more driven than ever before. I have high hopes for new signings Álvaro Medrán and Robert Berić when it comes to their attack and being able to face expansion clubs Nashville and Miami will work out in their favor, pushing them into that third qualifying spot.
It’s unfortunate that Nashville and Miami were thrown into this high stakes tournament in their inaugural MLS season. The league’s newest clubs just have not had time to prove that they can become a threat just yet. However, the Florida derby featuring Miami and Orlando City will be a fun one to watch and we’ll see if Rodolfo Pizarro can be a potential difference maker that ruins my bracket.
Group B: The three Western conference groups pose the tournament’s most unpredictable outcomes, which is why my three wild card teams came out of those groups. All three of my qualifying teams are headed in the right direction and are dark horses that can make a strong run for the title. Given that the drawing limited teams to their respective conferences, each team likely would’ve secured a spot in the round of 16 if they had been matched up with a couple of Eastern teams.
I chose the Sounders to win the group as the safe choice. The reigning MLS Cup champions picked up right where they left off in 2019 with a 1–0–1 start, a draw earned in a hard-fought battle against Eastern powerhouse Columbus Crew. The Sounders also seemed to have found an upgrade for the loss of Victor Rodríguez in Brazilian midfielder João Paulo. Paulo scored in both Concacaf Champions League matches against Honduran club Olympia, which eliminated the Sounders on penalty kicks. Watch for him to link up nicely in the midfield with Cristian Roldan and get forward to create goal scoring chances along with the rest of the Sounders’ dominant forward line.
The Earthquakes are one of my tournament sleeper picks. Dallas robbed San Jose of the last playoff spot in 2019 after they finally found their winning ways late in the season. They looked like a completely different team, a more confident one, once the players and coach, Matías Almeyda, were finally on the same wavelength. However, in Dallas’ case, MLS is Back will be the perfect stage for them to unleash its potent offense, led by strikers Zdeněk Ondrášek and newly acquired Franco Jara from Mexican side Cruz Azul. That attacking combo is more dangerous than a soon-to-retire Chris Wondolowski. However, I have faith that San Jose’s defense, led by secret free kick master Oswaldo Alanís, will bail them out in many close situations. Both Dallas and San Jose have deeper rosters than the Whitecaps although Vancouver’s shutout road win against the Galaxy almost tempted me to place them ahead of Dallas. Nine positive COVID-19 cases for Dallas also affected my decision as those players are now quarantined until further notice.
This is in my opinion the second toughest group in the tournament so I wouldn’t be surprised if I went 0 for 3 once the round ends.
Group C: There’s nothing better than a high stakes tournament rivalry and the East’s three groups give us just that. Group A with the Florida derby, Group E with the “Hell Is Real” derby, and right here in Group C with the “Canadian Classique”, one of he league’s most underrated rivalries.
Montreal and Toronto have met 44 times in all competitions with Toronto leading their series history with a 23–13–9 record. In 2019, Toronto won both regular season meetings however, the Impact claimed the Canadian Championship with a 3–1 penalty shootout win.
Toronto are the clear favorites to win this group. Last season’s MLS Cup runner-ups were robbed of the three points by San Jose in their 2020 opener before a dominant 1–0 win against NYCFC. With consistent goal scorers Alejandro Pozuelo and Jozy Altidore already in the lineup, Toronto will also rely on the emergence of young wingers Richie Laryea and Erickson Gallardo. Also look out for captain Michael Bradley to make his return after undergoing preseason ankle surgery.
They will have to do without 2020 SuperDraft pick Ifunanyachi Achara who scored the game winner over NYCFC in his MLS debut after he suffered an ACL tear days before the team travels to Orlando. Toronto, who has been one of the league’s most consistent teams over the last five seasons, are heavy favorites and are poised for a deep tournament run.
With Toronto being the group’s dominant team the main contention was for the second spot. DC, New England, and Montreal are three of the league’s best coached teams. However, I predict New England will advance simply because the combination of Bruce Arena’s tactics and Revolution offense are too dangerous to overlook. I’d love to see what Revs’ attacking midfielder Gustavo Bou can accomplish after his late season impact with the team. And now that he has Polish striker Adam Buska to work with, that duo could be lethal come the knockout rounds. I’m also interested to see whether Arena chooses to bring center back Antonio Delamea back into the lineup or whether he’ll opt to start rookie Henry Kessler next to veteran Andrew Farrell. Regardless of lineup decisions, Arena and the Revolution are fairly set at each position and are in the league’s best position in terms of talented young players on their roster.
As for DC and Montreal the loss of their two captains and most impactful players have created holes in their lineups they haven’t fully been able to replace. In DC’s opening matches, it was clear that they were missing Wayne Rooney out there. Midfield passing and the use of the team’s width was just not working and I’d find it hard to believe that the chemistry between Ola Kamara and Edison Flores has drastically improved since then.
Montreal’s final game before the pause saw them almost get away with a victory in Dallas after being out-possessed and out-shot the entire game. Thierry Henry’s side settled for a 2–2 draw with the only offensive threat coming from Maxi Urruti’s two goals.
By no means will any of these games be blowouts. Each team has experienced players and coaches who will use their knowledge of the league to their advantage.
Group D: As the tournament’s toughest group, this was by far my biggest tossup, as any team can theoretically win the group. It will utterly surprise me if one of the three wild card teams does not come from this group.
Since this group is so unpredictable, I opted for an upset with the Rapids claiming second over Sporting KC. The Rapids deservedly won their two regular season games this season as it seems their rebuild is finally coming to an end. So far we’ve seen the pieces come together rather quickly, including newcomer Younes Namli establishing himself as a potential goalscorer alongside league veteran Kei Kamara. With the Rapids’ fielding a younger team this season, I’m really infatuated by their group’s potential and hopefully their newly formed depth will turn them into a real threat down the road.
It was hard to ignore Kansas City’s complete obliteration of the Houston Dynamo 4–0 in Week 2. Kansas City seem close to becoming their 2018 selves again, especially if striker Alan Pulido is in top form he’ll for sure be unstoppable. Pulido scored goals in both regular season games and I’m super optimistic that he and fellow forwards Khiry Shelton and Johnny Russell will develop into the league’s latest goalscoring trio.
What edged the Rapids over Kansas City was simply my familiarity with their back line. The Rapids’ back line is the same as it was last season and they performed pretty solid in the opening weeks, most notably right back Keegan Rosenberry. With Kansas City’s new addition Roberto Punčec and 2019 latecomer Luis Martins, I’d like to see if they can become the defensive fortress they used to be.
Choosing Minnesota as the group’s winner was more of a safe choice than a sleeper pick. I think everyone forgot that the Loons finished tied for third place last season after being near unstoppable at home. Even with the loss of Darwin Quintero, the player that turned Minnesota’s franchise towards dominance, I can’t wait to see what his replacement, Luis Amarilla, can do in this tournament. He completely tore apart San Jose’s defense in the team’s 5–2 Week 2 win and seems to be the young forward coach Adrian Heath and the organization were looking for. Despite reigning Defender of the Year Ike Opara announcing he will not be traveling to Orlando, the team is still pretty set defensively. With the defensive midfield already stacked with two-way players Ján Greguš and Osvaldo Alonso and not to mention the big offseason signing of goalkeeper Tyler Miller, the team has plenty of defensive talent to account for Opara’s absence.
Real Salt Lake is another all-around solid team but lacks the true striker they’ve needed for over a season now, and in this group, that won’t get them very far. Former Italian national team striker Giuseppe Rossi will most likely be the team’s starter but it’s hard to say how long he’ll be able to last in each game after already having injury problems in the opening weeks. If he doesn’t start then expect Damir Kreilach or Sam Johnson to assume the role as number nine.
Again the toughest group without the most well known names. Be sure to tune into a Group D game if you can.
Group E: “Hell Is Real” is on its way to Orlando. Cincinnati will be put to the test as they face the Crew who are arguably the East’s most dangerous team. The Crew escaped Weeks 1 and 2 undefeated as they were up to the test against NYCFC and Seattle. The Crew lost midfielders Federico Higuaín and captain Will Trapp during the offseason and upgraded them with players bound to make a difference in MLS is Back.
Lucas Zelarayán and Darlington Nagbe have added a mix of creativity and MLS experience to the Crew’s midfield. We already know what two-time MLS Cup champ Nagbe is capable of in the midfield so pay more attention to the dynamic duo of Zelarayán and Gyasi Zardes. Zardes scored 32 goals in his first two seasons with the Crew and is now one of the league’s most consistent strikers. While the Crew’s offense will definitely be their most prominent aspect, watch out for left back Milton Valenzuela to get himself involved in the attack. Valenzuela, who missed 2019 due to an ACL tear, was an obvious difference maker in the Crew’s opening games.
There are two factors that separate the Crew and Atlanta United: Goal scoring threats and roster consistency. Atlanta will have to find new ways to score as Venezuelan striker Josef Martinez is still recovering from a Week 1 ACL tear. They still have dangerous attacking threats in Pity Martinez and Ezequiel Barco, however, the two only combined for nine goals last season. As for who they’ll start up top, they really didn’t have a solid backup option for Martinez and acquired emergency signings Adam Jahn and JJ Williams, who haven’t established themselves as elite MLS attackers. Martinez’s injury also has coach Frank De Boer fielding a lineup with many new faces. Most notably their back line of Anton Walkes, Fernando Meza, and Laurence Wyke who will center wingbacks Brooks Lennon and Franco Escobar. As Miles Robinson appears to be healthy after missing the opening weeks due to injury, he’ll look to give Atlanta’s back line a much needed boost after rocky Champions League and MLS matches..
The Red Bulls also are missing a key attacking threat. They do have the size of Brian White along with the creativity of Daniel Royer to bolster their attack. White is a super underrated MLS attacker who scored nine goals as a replacement for the struggling Bradley Wright-Phillips; however, he doesn’t have enough experience and dominance to lead the Red Bulls into the next round. The Red Bull attack will also have to do without winger Josh Sims whose loan from Premier League side Southampton expired on July 1. I really liked the looks of Sims in the team’s attack and was a potential tournament difference maker in terms of maybe sneaking the Red Bulls into a Wild Card spot. And despite having other attacking threats in Kaku and Alex Muyl, the team’s lack of offensive depth as well as a competitive Western Conference will prevent them from advancing.
The same thing goes for Cincinnati. They have a few new attacking threats in Designated Players Jürgen Locadia and Yuya Kubo, but I just haven’t seen enough from them to feel confident that they have improved from a six win inaugural season. They started the season 0–2 after losing to Atlanta and the Red Bulls, so the head-to-head results also played a huge factor.
Group F: We’ve finally made it to the starpower group; The group with the tournament’s most exciting fixtures and players you won’t want to miss. Oh, and not to mention that the Los Angeles, “El Trafico” derby is also a group stage match. Definitely the most meaningful and intense of the group stage rivalries. I just hope that the absence of fans at the venue doesn’t diminish the hatred between these two clubs.
I have LAFC edging out the Galaxy by the slightest of margins although I’m pretty confident that there will be no shortage of goals on both sides. The derby’s three games in 2019 each saw no less than five goals. The Galaxy will have high hopes that new striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez finds his scoring touch rather quickly. Of the nine goals the Galaxy scored against LAFC last season, six were scored by Zlatan Ibrahimović, the team’s leading goal scorer. It’s hard to tell after the team’s opening matches whether Chicharito is the replacement for Ibrahimović they expect. Chicharito will also have to step up given that attacking midfielder Jonathan Dos Santos will miss the tournament after a recent injury. That will force Chicharito and Cristian Pavón to be the Galaxy’s main attacking threats. Also don’t be surprised if 18-year-old attacking midfielder Efrain Alvarez gets the start. It was hard to rule a team with a ton of star power out of the group’s top two spots but I’m very optimistic about the team’s offensive impact and especially Pavón’s performance on the big stage.
Ibrahimović may have scored the most “El Trafico” goals in 2019, but LAFC striker Carlos Vela was definitely the series MVP. Speculating that Vela will score a couple of goals and carry his team to a win is by no means out of the question. Vela, Diego Rossi, and Brian Rodríguez are arguably the league’s best front three. You take Rossi and Rodríguez’s quickness in 1v1 situations out wide and combine it with Vela’s confidence in front of the net. That would be my ideal goal scoring combo. Not to mention forwards Adama Diomande, Bradley Wright-Phillips, and newly acquired Andy Najar on the bench. Bob Bradley can’t go wrong with his selections and with the five-subs rule, he has a ton of flexibility within the attack.
However, LAFC’s star-studded attack doesn’t make up for their lack of depth defensively. I really like what I’ve seen so far of left back Diego Palacios but on the right, they’re in need of a serious upgrade. Tristan Blackmon was completely exposed in the team’s Champions League games, especially against Mexican side Leon. The same thing went for Dejan Jaković who seems to be destined for the bench on a team with so much star power. Hopefully we get to see new center back Francisco Ginella take over Jaković’s starting slot and break out in MLS is Back.
I chose the Timbers to win the group because in an exciting group like this an upset is definitely bound to happen. Also if I compare their starting lineup with their opponents, they don’t really have any areas of concern. I really like Steve Clark in goal for them. He uses his 6'2 frame super well and is among the league’s most athletic goalies. It’s also hard to bet against Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco’s offensive impact. Valeri is arguably the MLS’s best two-way midfielder and has made the Timbers and everyone around him much better when he’s on the field.
As for the Dynamo, coach Tab Ramos really dropped the ball when he didn’t start either Darwin Quintero or Christian Ramirez in the team’s 4–0 loss in Kansas City. So given that result it’s hard for me to think that they can match up with the caliber of teams in their group. I know I said you can’t read too much into those early season games but Houston still hasn’t seemed to have improved after another subpar 2019 season. The Dynamo tied the Galaxy in the opening week so that rematch may be worth viewing.
Unlike Group D, this group’s featured players is what will bring the excitement and unpredictability to each of its matchups.
