Recapping a wild MLS is Back Group Stage and a look ahead towards the knockout round matchups
MLS is Back in a nutshell: Slow, unpredictable, yet entertaining. But this by no means captures a wild three weeks of Group Stage play. It had its ups and downs but it definitely produced some of the league’s most remarkable moments in recent memory. History was made, in both the positive and negative sense, and most importantly soccer is finally back and running smoothly in the US.
Now 16 teams remain and it’s win or go home. The Round of 16 begins Saturday night and runs through Tuesday at Orlando’s ESPN Wide World of Sports. But before I discuss these elimination games, here’s a recap of the first round of the MLS is Back tournament.
Biggest Moments
MLS’s best games have been decided on controversial moments. Usually it results in fans shouting at their TV sets and seeing their team on the wrong end of a bad call. Well that’s happened more than once so far in Orlando, and even with VAR supposedly checking every play, the standards are much higher for refs to get the calls right.
That should’ve been the case in the penultimate Group Stage match, where the Houston Dynamo’s hopes of advancing to the knockout round were crushed after a questionable penalty call in the 90th minute against the LA Galaxy. The Dynamo had a 1–0 lead, which would’ve been enough to propel them into a Wild Card spot. However, a tussle in the box between Houston’s Maynor Figueroa and LA’s Diedie Traore during a corner kick, was enough for referee Victor Rivas to point to the spot. However, VAR did not step in to overturn the call. There have been many instances in the past where VAR has stepped in to identify the difference between simulation and excessive contact, but in this case–with Rivas’ decision deciding the recipient of the final Wild Card clincher–the call wasn’t as clear an obvious as fans and especially the Dynamo had thought. The Galaxy’s Cristian Pavón converted the penalty, knocking the Dynamo out of the tournament and helping New York City FC stay alive.
The tournament’s final day results were also impacted by the weather. Something beyond everyone’s control, but a factor that decided Thursday morning’s result. The second half of the Chicago Fire FC and Vancouver Whitecaps game saw heat turn into a heavy thunderstorm in a matter of minutes, causing a significant weather delay. The game lacked high energy, which was constant across the 9 a.m starts. With the group’s third and fourth place teams fighting to stay alive in the tournament, you would’ve expected a bit more desire from both teams. However, after nearly an hour of waiting out the storm, the Whitecaps completely took control, with Yordy Reyna carrying the team on his back to deliver a goal and an assist to keep the Whitecaps in the tournament. Would this have happened if there was no delay? We’ll never know. But the Whitecaps shifted their intensity into a gear we hadn’t seen in the tournament.
These games surely lacked a good amount of quality but were prime examples of classic MLS finishes. The more exciting finishes of Week 1’s Sporting Kansas City and San Jose Earthquakes matches which had VAR reversals, numerous bookings, and goals galore written all over them are prime examples of MLS’s unpredictability.
Along with Vancouver’s late claim as a contender, other teams had to do the same to reclaim their form after four months off. Statement wins from LAFC and the Columbus Crew did just that. Although LAFC drew two games, the club demonstrated that it possesses the quality of last year even without Carlos Vela. The 6–2 win over rival side Galaxy proved that their offensive prowess is unmatched and only certain sides can break them down. Similarly, the Crew, whose offense stayed relatively the same from last season, with the bonus signing of Lucas Zelarayán, really dominated the midfield. Darlington Nagbe has to be the team’s MVP so far, as his near perfect pass completion has made the Crew the team to beat going forward. As the tournament’s only 3–0 team and are yet to give up a goal, the Crew are heavy favorites to make it all the way to the MLS is Back final.
Biggest Surprises
Take a quick look at the knockout round bracket. Who would’ve expected that these are the teams that would make it out of the Group Stage. And look who’s been sent packing. Big teams and big players. There have been numerous upsets so far and there’s no doubt that there’s a few more in store for us.
I think Atlanta sacking Frank de Boer on Friday emphasizes just how much they underperformed throughout the tournament. No goals, no wins, easily the tournament’s worst performing team. Granted they were missing one of the league’s best ever goalscorers in Josef Martínez, the amount of money spent on the rest of their starting lineup should be more than enough to minimize the impact of his absence. When a team loses all three games 1–0, you might give them a slight benefit of the doubt just for keeping a narrow scoreline. However, Atlanta lacked consistency and intensity in each game. Down 1–0 and facing elimination in their final game against the Crew, they seemed unable to make a significant offensive push to get a few quick goals when they obviously have the talent to do so. Atlanta has finally been dethroned as MLS’s top powerhouse and have a lot to prove once MLS is Back concludes.
It’s worth considering that if Atlanta weren’t down a man for a large majority of their second game against FC Cincinnati, maybe they could’ve eventually scored. They were in control until Jake Mulraney’s 26th minute expulsion with Cincinnati just playing a park-the-bus strategy. However, unlike some of the other low pressing teams, Cincinnati executed that strategy perfectly, as getting many defenders behind the ball waiting to pounce on a counter attack ended up paying off for the orange and blue. But against Atlanta, the man advantage saw Cincinnati taking more offensive risks, which led to Frankie Amaya’s stunning game winner.
Few predicted Cincinnati to make it to the knockout round, especially in Group E, the East’s group of death. But Cincy managed to finish 2–1 after losing its first match to the Crew 4–0. But sitting back and being patient is what worked for them. Their compactness and off the ball movement earned them two shutouts and a well deserved second place finish.
While Cincinnati defied expectations, the league’s newest expansion side Inter Miami definitely underperformed. Miami wanted to be the next Atlanta United and, as it turned out, they mimicked the Five Stripes’ MLS is Back performances too perfectly. Another 0–3 finish for another team spending a ton of money towards its lineup, and Miami now goes down as having MLS’s worst ever start to a franchise. Rodolfo Pizarro was not the game changer everyone expected him to be and Miami’s supposedly highly rated inaugural signings of Matías Pellegrini and Julián Carranza were unnoticeable. It’s hard to let them slide by with the excuse of this being their inaugural season. With the combination of star power and MLS experience on its roster, it shouldn’t be so hard for Miami to make a name for themselves early on in its history.
Going back to the LA derby game, which featured much less star power than in year’s past, felt nothing like a rivalry match. Although the game was being played in Orlando with no fans, the Galaxy’s performance was underwhelming. No overall urgency and they failed to match LAFC’s energy. Even though the Galaxy were missing they’re two biggest offensive threats in Javier Hernández and Jonathan Dos Santos, they proved that other than Pavón, they have no other offensive weapon. Much like Atlanta, they are in need of serious re-evaluation before MLS returns to home markets.
The teams participating in the Round of 16 aren’t big surprises considering their overall performances, but certain Wild Card teams–NYCFC and the Montreal Impact in particular–should consider themselves lucky to still be in Orlando.
Top Performers
Just because Martínez and Vela were missing from the tournament’s action didn’t mean there was going to be a shortage of exciting plays. We saw a bunch of youngsters rise to the occasion and the league’s established stars continue to consistently produce solid performances.
Of course Ayo Akinola is a top candidate for the Group Stage’s MVP. As the tournament’s second-highest goal scorer, it would be hard to see Toronto FC winning the group without his surprise breakout. Akinola scored five goals in the team’s first two games, showing a combination of confidence, strength, and a goalscoring mindset, and is the main reason Toronto is undefeated through five league games. He worked really well as Jozy Altidore’s temporary replacement, and when Akinola and Altidore shared the field at the end of the Revolution game, the two combined for some of the game’s best chances. Akinola worked wonderfully with Alejandro Pozuelo who set up four of his goals and looked really dangerous alongside newcomer Pablo Piatti.
Another young attacker, Chris Mueller, became a dangerous dark horse helping Orlando win Group A. His brace in the opening 10 minutes against NYCFC proved just how dangerous he can be, taking pressure off of Luís Nani’s shoulders going forward. In only his third season in the league, the University of Wisconsin product has become an exciting forward to watch and is becoming a major USMNT prospect.
But of course many players expected to shine did just that. Chris Wondolowski looked super sharp coming off the bench for the Earthquakes. Wondo matched the intensity of coach Matías Almeyda, and the rest of the team certainly fed off of it. And lucky for the Quakes, Wondolowski just announced that he’s deferring his retirement plans until the end of the 2021 season, meaning another year for Wondo to extend his MLS goal scoring record.
And of course there have been some pretty solid performances in net. Przemysław Tytoń finally pulled off some big performances earning himself two shutout victories. All of Group A’s advancing keepers, Philadelphia’s Andre Blake, Orlando’s Pedro Gallese, and New York City’s Sean Johnson held the Group to only 14 goals, the second fewest of any group.
Stay tuned as there will surely be more breakout performances in the knockout round where winning matters most.
Knockout Round preview/predictions
Orlando City vs Montreal Impact: Two teams that weren’t considered among the tournament’s top contenders face off in the Round of 16’s opener. Orlando tied for first in Group A but won the group on goal difference thanks to the partnership up front of Mueller and Nani. Orlando’s front line has never looked so good and will give Montreal’s inconsistent back line a tough battle. Montreal lost its opening matches by just a goal, and a deflection earned the Impact a 1–0 win over DC United, as they finished as the second best Wild Card team. The Impact are going to need a major boost in intensity along with breakout performances from Maxi Urruti and Bojan Krkić if they want to compete with the Lions.
Prediction: Orlando wins 2–0
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: The Union and the Revs are two of the league’s best coached teams with a lot of under the radar talent. Both teams that lost out on their respective group’s top spot on goal difference but have players who won’t hesitate to rack up meaningful goals. Alejandro Bedoya and Brendan Aaronson were the Union’s X-factors throughout the Group Stage and key members of the team’s midfield, the deepest midfield they’ve had in a long time. Meanwhile, the Revolution’s front line may be too much to handle for a younger Union back line. It was great to see new signing Adam Buksa work nicely with Gustavo Bou, and if the two are once again on the same page, expect to see Blake tested with numerous goal scoring chances.
Prediction: Revolution wins 2–1
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: This game features a team that made a strong case to make it all the way to the final against a team that barely snuck into a Wild Card spot. Greg Vanney seems to have a better grasp on his team than NYCFC’s new coach Ronny Deila. A lot of long balls have been coming out of NYCFC’s back line that Toronto’s midfield trio of Michael Bradley, Piatti, and Pozuelo will gladly win every time. We’ve seen what TFC’s offense can bring with the emergence of Akinola. But its defense has struggled of late. So if NYCFC’s Héber is healthy this could be the perfect time for him to finally find his goal scoring touch.
Prediction: Toronto wins 3–1
Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Similar to the TFC/NYCFC situation; one team that dominated throughout the Group Stage, and one team that noticeably struggled. Kansas City’s offense has finally been rejuvenated with Alan Pulido finally settling into Peter Vermes’ system, and Johnny Russell and Khiry Shelton have been the support players they needed. Meanwhile, Vancouver is missing numerous key players, including the recent injury to Maxime Crépeau which now has backup keeper Thomas Hasal taking over. If the Whitecaps can use the width getting Yordy Reyna and Ali Adnan more involved, they should give Sporting a good battle.
Prediction: Kansas City wins 3–0
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: Two of the East’s most underrated teams face each other after a successful first three games. Salt Lake never seemed to repeat their performance in its opening 2–0 win over Colorado and lacked energy in its 2–0 loss to Kansas City. We’ll see how Salt Lake’s young defense can handle the high press of the Earthquakes. San Jose has numerous goal scoring threats on its roster that can punish any RSL defensive mistake.
Prediction: San Jose wins 1–0
Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC: Easily the most star powered fixture in the Round of 16. Both teams proved that they can control the tempo of the game for its entirety and can easily create many goal scoring opportunities. Jordan Morris was a consistent threat for the Sounders, especially in their 3–0 over Vancouver. As for LAFC’s offense, I’m just going to let their 6–2 win over the Galaxy speak for itself. Diego Rossi is a huge difference maker, and having Bradley Wright-Phillips at his best is definitely another bonus for the black and gold.
Prediction: LAFC wins 3–2
Columbus Crew vs Minnesota United: Two more top-tier teams make for another entertaining matchup. Gyasi Zardes and Lucas Zelarayán seem like the most dangerous attacking duo in the league, and with the speed of Zelarayán and Luis Díaz next to them, the Crew are surely another favorite to go all the way. They just need a healthy Eloy Room and they’ll be fully set. As for the Loons, Luis Amarilla is finally back; Kevin Molino and Ethan Finlay have done most of the work offensively thus far, so having Amarilla back and fully healthy should make them an even more dangerous team moving forward.
Prediction: Columbus win 2–1
Portland Timbers vs FC Cincinnati: Definitely a match that no one would have predicted at this stage of the tournament. Cincinnati’s defensive approach somehow earned it a spot in the Round of 16. But will that be enough to hold off the Timbers? The Timbers offense has never been as big of a threat as it is now. Jeremy Ebobisse is playing some unreal soccer, and with Jarosław Niezgoda now in the starting 11, Diego Valeri and Sebastián Blanco have another useful target to play to. And don’t count out the Chará brothers’ midfield duo. Those two sharing the field together makes the Timbers very hard to play around in the center of the field. But don’t count Cincinnati out just yet. Yuya Kubo finally found his feet and can be very lethal up top. We’ve caught a glimpse of Amaya at his best too. As long as MLS vets Kendall Waston and Haris Medunjanin stay in form, then Cincinnati can easily pull off another upset.
Prediction: Portland wins 3–1
