The future is fundamentally unpredictable because new ideas are constantly introduced rendering economies unprogrammable. The only thing that always works is being part of the cycle of producing new ideas.
“Your bankruptcy is dull compared to what is going on in the world, and it won’t make the nightly news.” — P. T. Barnum
Science is the key to unlocking so much readily available opportunity one wonders how we ever got along without it. Everything written here has been “market tested” and refined over 20 years running my own businesses producing my own products and services. If you read some of my earlier stuff on production you can track my evolution to this point.
C * (((K + M) / (S + T)) - E) = P
Composition * (((Knowledge + Matter) / (Space + Time)) - Entropy) = Production of Capital Asset
eg. Original Music * (((Proficiency + Instrument) / (Studio + Booking)) - Loss) = Album
Composition is authorship; creation of original content. Knowledge as it applies to capacity are practiced skills. Matter is the means. Space is the secured facility and Time is protected solitude. Interruptions are expensive. And no a facility is not the means of production unless it’s utilized as an instrument of creation at which point it’s the means because of its instrumentation not its facilitation. This is isn’t a treatment on private vs public property rights. The operators are deliberate. You’ll figure it out.
Entropy — broadly : the degree of disorder or uncertainty in a system. economically; additionally the degree of waste constituting the remains of consumed capital assets so disordered they’re no longer within reach of currently available opportunities in an economy. This point of no return is called the Production Horizon.
This assumes each variable is adequate to the need, cultivated through past capitalizations or can be secured in real-time within budget. Otherwise, if nothing else, the compounding effect of entropy in other capitalizations going on around you will change conditions beyond your current capacity because you’re not privy to the returns for risks you’re not taking, but everyone, you included is effected by total entropy.
Capitalization — the act of capitalizing on an opportunity. Sometimes referred to as “producing more than you consume”. — Free Dictionary
This is called an open Window of Opportunity closing. Cousin of Opportunity Knocks which is commonly mistaken to mean seize the moment, but which actually means you can’t answer two doors at the same time. You must choose which opportunity to pursue at the cost of another. Not to be taken literally, it suggests your capacity is limited and you’re an arrogant fool to believe otherwise.
If a capitalist dwells too long in a single market they risk becoming a creature of that market. The dependence changes them. They may have power and strength, but it’s only the power to destroy and the strength to resist those who would save them from themselves.
The systematic production of capital is called Capitalism. Therefore capital itself must respect the nature of its own existence and promote further production in every exchange (which has a minimum cost due to entropy and then further costs such as material, time, equipment, facilities, collaborators and so on). Otherwise it’s not a system of production by definition, but instead of primitive self destruction. eg. Socialism. Fascism. Where long term progress is sacrificed for short term power.
There’s no such thing as a cost neutral exchange without compensating somehow on one side or the other for the loss in the exchange itself. The compounding value in the exchange must be real and present or the new wealth fails to manifest and both parties will suffer a proportionate loss.
While missing an opportunity or failing to capitalize hurts it doesn’t hurt as much as desperately continuing to work an angle with diminishing potential for payoff. Fraud doesn’t add value. Crime doesn’t pay for all its illusory appearances of success. The price is always too high. Let it go as quickly as possible and move on. There’ll be new opportunities generated in the wake of other successful capitalizations, yours and others. With practice and perseverance anyone can breach the deep expanse into healthy profit with their unique talent stack.
Market matters. Capital gains is NOT the same as new capital.
The producer of new capital has a distinct advantage over those who predominantly trade in old capital. Taxation of capital gains occurs at the sale. For the pioneer this means tax at the end of the road. For the markeeter… every step of the way.
Capital is anything that can effect an economy and furthermore primordial capital is anything that effects it in a way promoting further production considering no other motivating factor beyond substantive yield. Market capital has modifiers distinct to their market types and implementations. This is where our pioneering capitalism and market capitalism part ways.
Market capitalists have formed a common investment and it acts as its own capital asset. Old world capitalism is more abstract… more universal. While marketeers claim markets are a natural feature of capitalism, and in a way that’s true, to a producer, however, they’re no more or less important than any enterprise absent specific affinity. To the creatures of these markets they become a world unto themselves. Elevated. Self interested. We see this in large companies as well. Employees who live and die; operate all their lives in a distinct corporate sub-society.
Some prefer what they call “Free Markets” which are give or take modeled on the political progress of an open and free society writ large. There are other markets of course, mostly on a sliding scale of liberty to state controlled, “mixed economies” as some like to call them but there are even some remnant markets from the “Old World” that still operate as Merchant Bazaars or Private Auctions online… club rules. Markets are kinda like cultural groups as it applies to economics. A pioneer is, to varying degrees, capable of operating in any of them sometimes and none of them all the time.
The marketeers have simply concluded the benefits of their common investment promote more production of the sort they prefer so they’ve abstracted production itself. Pioneering is too unpredictable for their taste. They like trade and don’t understand art. You can’t really blame them. If your area of influence has a plentiful resource or a certain frequency of opportunity then it’s hard to pass up the return potential. A market is just begging to form a distinct shape there.
In some cases it’s absolutely necessary to form markets to optimize production across groups toward an identified common benefit such as basic survival. Yet, in other ways a market can stifle innovation and original progress of producers who buck the routine and threaten reliable returns in the ongoing war with irrelevance. It’s give and take.
In a world of diverse interests capital production is both infinite and infinitely frustrating for those trying to bottle it through automation or bureaucracy. Ultimately every market eventually adapts to the pull of new capital production until it collapses. Sooner or later. This applies to every investment, every asset, every company or band or studio or enterprise... or person. Nothing lasts forever and nothing is worth unlimited return; not even your own flesh and bones.
Any collaboration, any common investor or independent producer alike must accept that while they’ve generated new capital in their way once upon a time… that all means have limits and the law of diminishing returns, driven by entropy’s effect on all ordered systems, cannot be denied. Only fresh capitalization can circumvent the undeniable. The introduction of a fundamentally new idea rendering all past losses obsolete.
What I’ve referred to as the Production Horizon. That point where entropy overcomes past capital production through its zombie like erosion of order. It’s the rot on the vine. The chaotic deconstruction of anything constructed for any reason. Consuming itself as readily as anything else which is why capitalism overcomes it in the first place. While every action in the universe drives further entropy, even constructing new things, the organizing principal toward original capital production side steps the problem by accepting the loss in the exchange and instead producing new systems that entropy hasn’t yet touched.
“While entropy is undeniably powerful as it applies to what exists it is powerless to effect that which doesn’t exist yet.” — So important I had to write it twice.
Maybe allegory, rather than compound interest, is the most powerful thing in the Universe ’cause you can’t get blood from a stone. The thief can’t take what you don’t have. And my personal favourite… You can’t kill an idea. Not even the government can tax the product you’ve yet to produce. Once you recognize these principals you can consistently reduce the frequency of your losses and increase your gains. Not so much through data driven exploitation of market of opportunities (gift horse); but instead through progressive construction of value rooted in the anthropic supply and demand of the world in which you live regardless of a specific market’s “conditions”.
Markets offer trade opportunities and that’s great, but it’s just another enterprise. It’s not the whole game. Economists talk and I don’t know if it’s on purpose or not, but they talk as though “The Market” is this single all encompassing economy with numbers so large there’s no point in considering marginal…. fringe elements. They don’t recognize other economies but instead interpret them as fringe activity in their own monolithic investment. Their currency traded their way for their reasons.
This is where the term “the bigger they are the harder they fall” comes into play. Not so much that big means abuse or anything like that, but simply the natural consequence of sweeping influence attached to a single influencer when the twilight of any production runs its due course. Stock exchanges struggle with this. Here’s another one for ya.
“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” — Miguel Cervantes, 1600s
This is a burden simple capitalists don’t have to carry. Their investments are of a more personal nature. If there’s a massive loss the loss doesn’t generally effect old capital just current commodity. A book can be burned but can’t be unwritten. The only way to negatively effect primordial capital is to include it in fresh capitalization that goes bad and even that’ll be restrained by the failure in the fresh capitalization to match prior success. Any product introduced purely by choice, as history has informed freedom is elemental to cultivation, adds to the total value in the Universe and cannot take away from it without help.
The ultimate consequence of tyranny by any enterprise; government, company, market, or otherwise is to encourage accelerating inflation… inevitably diminishing capital potential and should probably be avoided. Not because it takes us backward but because it diminishes the greater potential other wise enjoyed. Even so, as demonstrated by the nature of entropy all capital is consumed eventually.
While anti-intuitive and frankly something I’ve never seen a marketeer accept (most seem convinced they can “adjust” their way out of any problem) your capital must be consumed. Fast or slow. It will have its effect or it wasn’t capital in the first place. Rejoice! The consumption is proof you produced. While it may have started in your imagination it didn’t stay there. For this is the way. From nothing to something to something else ad infinitum. To dream is not enough. Words are not enough. Capital must influence an economy.
So that’s that. Now you know what wealth really is. The power to matter. Do something with it.
Sing through an orchestral process of original contribution. Music, painting, writing, performing… exploring, inventing, discovering… the unknown is an opportunity. Originality is a requirement. What has more potential than a child and what’s more unpredictable? The most dangerous creature in the world is the decent man sincerely mistaken. Shakespeare was barely here.
The production focused capitalist doesn’t fear the consumption of their capital they in-fact embrace it. For it was inevitable from the very first stroke of the pen. The very first note. That some day all voices will fall silent. Your time WILL pass. And while your name will be forgotten, the Universe carries your impact forward through eternity. All will be taken and all will be given away. This is the price and privilege you enjoy through capital production.