AFC Championship: Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots, 1–21–2018
Free AFC Championship Prediction by Johnny Pham of BetSheet.com
Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
Odds: Patriots -7.5, 46.5
Time: January 21, 3:05 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars
(12–6)
The most likely scenario for the AFC Championship game was a Steelers vs Patriots rematch. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars said not so fast. The Jags pulled off the 45–42 win in Pittsburgh last weekend to set up a showdown with the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship.
Jacksonville’s offense was unleashed vs the Steelers, matching their season high 45 points vs a very good Pittsburgh defense on the road. The odds weren’t stacked in their favor but a balanced offense led them to victory. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette rushed for 109 yards and 3 touchdowns and QB Blake Bourtles did his job collecting 214 passing yards with one touchdown and no turnovers. Bortles will be the key to victory vs New England as they are 6–0 when Bortles doesn’t turn the ball over.
The Jags defense will need to be a lot sharper on Sunday afternoon. Fresh off a game where the defense surrendered the most points on the season and 545 total yards, it won’t get easier vs a Hall of Fame quarterback, tight end and head coach. During the regular season, Jacksonville’s defense was ranked 1st in passing yards (169), 2nd in total yards (286) and 2nd in points allowed (16.8). Which defense will show up on Sunday?
New England Patriots
(14–3)
The #1 seed in the AFC played like the #1 seed vs the Tennessee Titans, winning 35–14. After spotting the Titans 7 points, the Patriots rattled off 35 straight points to pull off the easy victory. Tom Brady was tremendous once again, accumulating 337 passing yards with three touchdowns against zero interceptions. Word out of the Patriots camp was that Brady hurt his hand in practice but the X-rays were negative so don’t let this piece of information cloud your judgement.
The Patriots are playing to keep their hopes alive for a 6th Super Bowl ring in the Brady era.
The two X-factors in this game for the Patriots are their rush defense and Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 114 rushing yards per game. Will they be able to shut down Leonard Fournette and keep the Jags offense off the field?
Last weekend the Jaguars defense allowed Pittsburgh TE Vance McDonald to catch 10 passes for 112 yards. Expect the Patriots to exploit this soft spot in the Jaguars defense which should lead to a big day for Rob Gronkowski.
Jaguars vs Patriots Prediction
What is Johnny Pham Predicting?
The Jaguars are 12–5 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC but just 2–5 ATS their last 7 meetings vs the Patriots. New England is 4–0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games, 5–0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games but just 2–6 ATS their last 8 Conference Championship games.
The Jaguars have had a nice run and played great football for a young, up and coming team. I think the run ends at Gillette Stadium. New England was 7–2 SU this season at home and Jags were just 5–4 SU on the road. The environment may be too much for Jaguars QB Blake Bortles and this young team. Bortles has 13 interceptions on the season and they need him to play mistake free football, which is a lot to ask considering the stakes. Brady and company were built for these games and they know how to win while the Jaguars are still learning how to win. I expect the Patriots to win and cover the -7.5 point spread.
Jaguars vs Patriots Free AFC Championship Pick: Patriots -7.5
