Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Free MLB Odds, Preview & Pick, 9–4–2018
Free MLB Pick by Carmine Luzetti of ATSExperts.com
Boston Red Sox (95–44) vs Atlanta Braves (76–61)
Date: September 4, 2018
Game Time: 7:35 pm
MLB Odds: Braves +115, O/U 9
The Boston Red Sox will continue chasing the franchise’s best regular season win total when they visit the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday in the second of a three-game series. Atlanta holds a 4.0 game lead over the slumping Phillies but Boston won Game 1 with an 8–2 victory on Monday.
Starting Pitchers: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (15–7, 4.27 ERA) vs. Braves RH Sean Newcomb (11–7, 3.85)
The top teams in the NL East and AL East will continue their three-game series on Tuesdayat SunTrust Park in Atlanta. Boston has a nice 8.5 game cushion over the Yankees in the AL East but the Red Sox have lost 8 of their last 14 games. Boston got the better of Atlanta in the opener Monday 8–2 with the help of eight pitchers and clutch hitting by the newest member of the team, Ian Kinsler. Kinsler delivered three RBIs in Monday’s victory and has multiple hits in four of his last seven games.
Taking the hill for the Red Sox will be Rick Porcello and he has gone 15–7 with a 4.27 ERA in 28 starts on the year, including 9–3 with a 3.88 ERA in 16 starts on the road. Porcello is winless in his last three turns and was knocked around for a combined 12 runs and 20 hits across 17 innings in those outings. Porcello is 20–8 with a 4.13 ERA in 39 career interleague games, including 2–1 in three starts against Atlanta.
The Braves will counter with LH Sean Newcomb who is (11–7, 3.85 ERA). However, like Porcello, Newcomb has struggled as of late. Newcomb has surrendered five or more runs in three of his last four outings and is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Newcomb started at Boston on May 26 and lasted three innings while allowing three runs on six hits and four walks.
We have two of the top three offenses in baseball and both pitchers have struggled a tad entering this start. The question in this game is less to do with the teams’ offenses, seeing that both are a threat to put two digits on the runs column, and more to do with the starting pitching.
Over is 14–6–1 in Porcellos last 21 starts overall
Over is 7–1 in Red Sox last 8 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter
Over is 20–6 in Braves last 26 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter
Over is 5–2 in Newcombs last 7 home starts
Over is 5–2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams
I’m not confident betting either side but I do like the OVER in this matchup. Both offenses have the firepower to light up the scoreboard and neither pitcher is at the top of their game. Take the OVER 9 in Tuesday’s Game 2.
Red Sox vs Braves Free Pick: OVER 9
