Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Free MLB Total Pick, 7–18–2017
Chicago Cubs (47–45)
The Chicago Cubs offense was swinging the bats well over the weekend at Baltimore but it was their pitching that got the job done Monday in a 4–3 win at Atlanta for their 4th straight victory. The Cubs are now 3.5 games behind the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
John Lackey takes the bump tonight and he has struggled this season going (5–9) with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.328 WHIP, 30 walks and 86 strikeouts over 98.2 innings. Lackey leads the league in home runs surrendered at 24 and an astounding 21% of fly balls are hit for home runs.
Chicago’s offense seemed to have been well rested coming off of the All-Break as they scored 27 runs during their three games series in Baltimore. They currently rank 17th with 4.67 runs scored and 23rd with a .244 team average. I expect these numbers to rise the second half of the season as they make a push towards the playoffs to defend their World Series.
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 4–0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter
- Over is 4–1 in Lackeys last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance
- Over is 5–2 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
Atlanta Braves (45–46)
Just like the Cubs, Atlanta came out of the All-Star break well rested and swept the Diamondbacks on the road in a three game series. The Braves limped into the break, losing four of six.
Rookie Sean Newcomb makes his seventh career start for the Braves in this contest. He is (1–4) with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.453 WHIP, 14 walks and 30 strikeouts over 31.2 innings of work.
Atlanta is 10.5 games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East but they are holding out hopes for a Wildcard. It will be a long shot but if the Braves can start to win some series, they have a shot. However, their pitching has been suspect (4.60 team ERA) and their defense needs work with 59 errors.
Braves Betting Trends
- Over is 14–4 in Braves last 18 Tuesday games
- Over is 5–2 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs vs Braves Total Pick
Both starters in tonight’s matchup have pitched poorly so far this season and over the last three games, Lackey’s ERA is 6.23 and Newcomb’s ERA is 7.42. I like the Over 9.5 in Tuesday’s game and look for the Cubs to win this game, 6–4.