Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Free Total MLB Prediction, 6–22–2017

Free MLB Prediction by Garrett Perry of Sports Picks Forum

MLB: Thursday, June 22, 2017
Odds: Marlins +115, O/U 9

MLB Baseball Pick by Garrett Perry
Last 30:
37 Wins — 21 Losses: 64%
Unit Gain/Loss: +4511 Units

The Chicago Cubs have managed to wiggle their way up in the NL Central standings and they enter this matchup vs the Marlins, 1.5 games behind the Brewers. Chicago has won 6 out of their last 10 games and they head to Miami to take on the Marlins, a team that just won 2 of 3 from the Nationals.

Chicago hands the ball to Jake Arrieta (6–5, 4.64 ERA in 14 starts ). Arrieta pitched the Cubs to a home win against Miami on June 6th, giving up two earned runs on two hits while striking out seven in six innings of a 10–2 victory.

Miami will counter with left-hander Jeff Locke (0–2, 4.58 ERA in 4 starts). Locke took the Loss vs Arrieta on June 6th, lasting 4.2 innings, walking 4 batters and allowing 3 earned runs on 4 hits. Locke has yet to make it out of the 5th inning his four starts this season.

One of the Cubs batters that should concern Locke is Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is batting .373 (25-for-67) with five homers and 17 RBI this month. In addition to his red-hot bat, Rizzo has hit very well off Locke, going 11-for-29 with five home runs in his career.

The Marlins should put stock in the fact that Arrieta has not pitched well on the road. Marlins hitters should capitalize on a seemingly watered down version of 2016 Jake Arietta. While Arrieta beat the Marlins in Chicago earlier this season, pitching on the road has been quite a challenge, (3–5) with a 5.07 ERA and .278 opponents’ batting average in nine road starts this year.

My research shows the smart money is on the Over 9 runs.

The Over has gone 4–1 the last 5 meetings in Miami, Over is 9–2 in Cubs last 11 vs. National League East, Over is 5–0–1 in Arrieta’s last 6 Thursday starts and 9–4 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts overall. The Over is 4–1–1 in Marlins last 6 home games and the Over is 15–4–2 in Marlins last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Cubs vs Marlins Prediction: Over 9