VC Sports Monitor
Oct 4 · 3 min read

Free NFL Pick by Fred Berns of

Denver Broncos (0–4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2–2)

Sunday, October 6, 2019, 4:05 PM EST
Line: Chargers -6.5, 44.5
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5

The Denver Broncos (0–4) are still searching for their first win on the season as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers (2–2) in an AFC West matchup. The Chargers will welcome back RB Melvin Gordon after a lengthy holdout but do the Broncos have the personnel to cover the +6.5 point spread on the road?

The Broncos offense have managed to score only 17.5 PPG (27th) while their defense is allowing 22.3 PPG (17th), a recipe that will not yield many wins. Denver is a play or two away from a .500 record, but the Broncos just lost LB Bradley Chubb to a season-ending knee injury which is a brutal blow to this 15th ranked defense. Bradley Chubb’s absence couldn’t have come at a worse time as the Broncos prepare to take on a Chargers offense that will be more balanced with the return of Melvin Gordon.

Los Angeles had no issues with Miami last week beating the Dolphins 30–10. Melvin Gordon’s return will be a shot in the arm to an offense that is only averaging 103.5 rushing yards per game. Phillip Rivers has carried the load offensively leading this 5th ranked offense which averages over 300 passing yards per game. The Broncos defense is allowing only 200 passing yards per game which ranks them 5th in the league but they have been gashed on the ground where they allow almost a 150 yards per game, which ranks them 30th.

Momentum certainly favors the Chargers and their 2–2 SU record vs. the Broncos the last four games has them 2–1–1 ATS. Despite the road team going 12–4–2 ATS in their last 18 meetings, the Broncos defense may be helpless vs the Chargers rushing attack of Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Denver allowed 225 yards on the ground to Jacksonville last weekend and the Chargers balanced attack should give this Broncos defense fits. Denver has failed to force turnovers on defense and their offense is mediocre leading to troubles scoring the football. Los Angeles should win this game by 7+ points which is why I will be laying the -6.5 points and backing the Chargers on Sunday in a home cover.

Broncos vs. Chargers Free NFL Pick : Los Angeles Chargers -6.5

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