Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns FREE NFL Pick, 10–11–2020
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 11, 2020, 4:25 PM EST
Line: Browns +1, O/U 47.5
The week 5 AFC showdown at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland will pit the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns in what should be the marquee matchup of this weekend’s NFL schedule. Both teams are riding a three-game win streak after some tough losses in the opening week and oddsmakers favor the Colts -1 on the road. Indy is 3–1 ATS on the season while the Browns are 2–2 ATS.
After a 27–20 defeat at the Jacksonville Jaguars in the opener, the Colts shut down the Vikings, Jets, and Bears, allowing only 29 points through that three-game span. The Colts’ defense is leading the NFL in points allowed per game (14.0), total yards (236.3), and passing yards surrendered per contest (159.3), while they are fourth in rushing yards allowed (77.0). Phillip River leads the offense which averages 25.8 PPG and 360 total yards. This offense could get better throughout the season with more reps for Rivers in his first year with the Colts. Indy’s defense has been their calling card but the Browns dynamic offense will be a true test for this top-ranked defensive unit.
Cleveland looked overmatched in their Week 1 loss to Baltimore but they have rebounded nicely and continue to improve. RB Nick Chubb was having a breakout year before he injured his knee ruling him out for Sunday’s game. The Browns #1 rushing attack has taken the pressure off of Baker Mayfield and opened up the deep threat. While the offense averages 31.0 PPG their defense has to get better as they allow 31.5 PPG and 402 total yards per game. The Browns have played well against the run (5th), but they have struggled against the pass (30th), and that is not good as Cleveland is about to face Phillip Rivers, who can pick apart a lousy defense.
Despite the Colts’ tremendous defense, they are facing their toughest test to date with the Browns running game and explosive players in all skills positions. The Colts too could see a breakout game by Phillip Rivers and Indy’s offense as they could find little resistance with this poor Browns defense. Both teams will find ways to score and while the public may favor the Under, my money will fade the public and take Over 47.5 points. While this won’t be a shoot out you can certainly expect some fireworks and we should see the Over 47.5 cash on Sunday.