Kansas State Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns Free College Football O/U Prediction, 10–7–2017
Free College Football Prediction by Peter Trell of King Sports Picks
Kansas State Wildcats (3–1) vs Texas Longhorns (2–2)
NCAAF: Saturday, October 7th, 7:00 PM EST
Line: Texas -4.5, 49
The Texas Longhorns return home to host their Big 12 rival, Kansas State Wildcats. Kansas State’s dominance over Texas in recent years may come as a surprise but Bill Snyder and the Wildcats own a 9–2 record the last 11 meetings between these two teams. KSU pulled out a 24–21 win last season but oddsmakers have still installed the Longhorns as -4.5 point home favorites. Expect another tight matchup between two teams on the rise.
Kansas State enters this contest with a (3–1) record and fresh off a 33–20 win over Baylor but the Wildcats failed to cover the -14.5 point spread. Baylor doesn’t have a marquee win on the season, and while the Longhorns aren’t exactly a national contender, beating Texas in Austin is still a tough feat.
Kansas State might not beat you by throwing the ball all over the field but the line is keeping QB Jesse Ertz protected and defensive players out of the backfield. Ertz threw for 119 yards against Baylor and ran for 95 yards with a touchdown. On the season, Ertz leads in rushing with 332 yards and in passing with 706 yards. The Wildcats are averaging 408.2 yards per game and 179.2 passing yards per game (104th). Their defense is their strength, as they are allowing 308.5 yards per game (21st) and just 120.5 yards per game on the ground (32nd).
Through four games, UT and KSU have collected eight and nine turnovers, respectively. The ‘Horns have made the most of their takeaways, scoring four defensive touchdowns. This will be a key component to the game considering the Texas offense has had their share of turnovers (8). Tom Herman took on a tall task taking over the Horns who have underachieved in recent years. It may have taken four games but Texas appears to have turned a corner and may be headed in the right direction. They lost to USC in overtime and unexpectedly lost to Maryland in Week 1, however, they pulled out a much-needed win in Iowa State last week.
Texas may be able to beat Kansas State at its own game: controlling the pace of play. The Wildcats have converted only 38% of third downs and have controlled the ball for only 29:36 per game. Texas, however, has been able to control the game with a sound defense and Longhorns lead the Big 12 in third-down defense and convert 47% of their offensive chances. Texas controls the ball for over 34 minutes so the time of possession will be a key factor in this game.
I haven’t been too impressed with either offense and I expect this to be a grind ’em out defensive battle. The Under has hit the last 5 meetings and I don’t see today’s game being any different. Look for this game to be a low scoring battle and the total to stay Under 49.
Kansas State vs Texas Total Pick: Under 49
