Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction, 1–13–2024

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4 min readJan 12, 2024

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Miami Dolphins (11–6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11–6)

The Miami Dolphins (11–6, 10–7 ATS, 9–8 O/U) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (11–6, 9–8 ATS, 5–12 O/U) in the AFC Wildcard game on Saturday night from Arrowhead Stadium. These two teams met in Germany on November 5th in a game the Chiefs won by a 21–14 score as +1 point dogs and the Total went Under 51.5.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date: Saturday, January 13, 2023
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Spread: Dolphins +4.5, Chiefs -4.5
Moneyline: Dolphins +190, Chiefs -230
Total: 44

Dolphins Betting Preview

At one point in the season, the Miami Dolphins appeared to be one of the top teams in the NFL with a dynamic offense. As with all teams, injuries eventually took a toll and the Dolphins stumbled down the stretch losing their final two games to Baltimore and Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t looked as sharp late in the season, chucking four picks in his last two games. The Dolphins offense has only mustered up 33 points in their last two games and has only eclipsed 30 points in one of their last five games. Part of their offensive struggles are due to Raheem Mostert who missed the last two games with a knee injury but is expected to play Saturday. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are dealing with injuries but are also expected to suit up. The absence of left tackle Terron Armstead, grappling with knee, ankle, and back issues, poses a concern for the Dolphins’ offensive line. Defensive backs Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard, and DeShon Elliott, all pivotal components of Miami’s defensive unit, are uncertain for the upcoming game. As you can see, the Dolphins are banged up and it’s tough to gauge which team will show up on Saturday night.

Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs had the bye in the wildcard round last season and will have to win one more game than last year if they want to repeat as Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs were not the dominant team we saw in 2023 but they won their final two games to clinch the #3 seed and host a playoff game. Kansas City is just 5–5 SU in their last 10 games with some surprising losses to Las Vegas, Green Bay, and Denver to name a few. This season for the Chiefs it’s been the good defense, but the offense has been inconsistent all season and is averaging 21.8 points while their defense is giving up 17.3 points per game.

Free Pick

On the surface between these teams, it feels like a fairly low total. Either team is still capable of an offensive explosion, in theory, but that won’t be the case on Saturday night. Arrowhead Stadium is poised to become a frigid field on Saturday night setting the stage for potentially one of the coldest games in NFL history. Kickoff temperature is expected around 0 degrees and a projected low of -5 degrees, some say colder, and 10–15 miles per hour winds will certainly play into offensive production in this game. In addition, the Chiefs offense can’t be trusted with this wide receivers corps and the never-ending list of injuries that have plagued the Dolphins. Both teams will eventually lean heavily on the run or short passes and the opportunity for explosive plays will be very slim. I see points coming at a premium here and I’ll gladly put money on Under 44 to watch a low-scoring, defensive battle of field position.