Military Bowl Preview and Prediction: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Navy Midshipmen, 12–27–2017

Free College Football Spread Prediction by Greg Michaels

Virginia Cavaliers vs Navy Midshipmen

Thursday, December 28th, 1:30 pm EST
NCAAF Odds: Navy -1.5, 52

Virginia Cavaliers

The Virginia Cavaliers will take on the Navy Midshipmen in the 2017 Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD. Virginia finished the season with a (6–6) record and (6–6) against the spread. UVA is trying to win it’s first bowl game since they beat Navy in the 2005 Military Bowl.

The Cavaliers have three potential NFL Draft targets and all three will be suiting up on Thursday. QB Kurt Benkert, safety Quin Blanding and LB Micah Kiser all are projected to get selected from the 3rd to 5th rounds.

Virginia got off to a great start to the season going 5–1 through the first 6 games which included a win over Boise State in Boise. However, the Cavaliers lost 5 of their last 6 games to finish the season which includes losing the last three straight games.

Virginia is a pass heavy offense, led by QB Kurt Benkert, which ranked 43rd in the nation averaging 257 passing yards per game. UVA also features one of the top rated passing defenses in the country which allowed only 179 YPG.

Virginia Betting Trends

• 2–7–1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game
• 2–8 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game

Navy Midshipmen

Navy enters the 2017 Military Bowl losers in 6 of the last 7 ball games. Navy has played some good teams down the stretch which included losses to Army, Houston, Notre Dame, Temple, UCF and Memphis. All six teams have or will played in bowl games this season. It will be interesting to see how Navy responds coming off their tough one point loss to Army.

The Midshipmen’s unique offensive system is well known across the college football landscape, but most teams have trouble slowing down the Midshipmen’s productive triple-option attack. Through 12 games, Navy has averaged 426.8 yards per game, good for 42nd in the nation. Of course, its strength is running the football, which they rank 2nd in the nation averaging 343 yards per game.

Midshipmen Betting Trends

• Midshipmen are 4–0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games
• Midshipmen are 7–2–1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss

Military Bowl Betting Prediction

Neither team finished the season they way they anticipated after they both started the season (5–1). Two keys to this game will be Navy’s ability to defend the passing game and Virginia’s ability to stop the triple-option. Navy is playing a home game where they were 4–2 SU on the season while Virginia was 2–3 Away from Charlottesville. I can see Navy’s rushing attack wearing down this UVA defense over the course of a game and I expect this to be the difference with long, sustained drives that eat up the clock and wear down the defenders. Look for Navy to cover the spread in a tight game.

Virginia vs Navy Prediction: Navy -1.5