Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB Pick, 7–18–2019
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Time: Thursday, July 18, 9:40 PM EST
Odds: Diamondbacks -110, O/U 9.5
The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Thursday in MLB action at Chase Field in Arizona. Milwaukee remains in the Playoff hunt as they enter Thursday’s matchup 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and tied with the Phillies for the 2nd Wild Card. Arizona may be sellers at the trade deadline as they remain 14.0 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Milwaukee will hand the ball to their staff ace, Zach Davies (7–2, 2.89 ERA). Davies has pitched well this season but the veteran right-hander has not recorded a win since Milwaukee’s 5–3 win over Pittsburgh on June 8th. The Brewers offense has not scored more than 3+ runs in a Zach Davies start since June 8th. Davies is 0–2 with a 4.18 ERA in his last six starts, with 4 no-decisions. Davies has allowed 1 ER over his last three starts and is 2–1 with a 4.15 ERA and 11 strikeouts in his career against the Diamondbacks.
Diamondbacks rookie Merrill Kelly (7–9, 3.93 ERA) can relate to Davies considering the Diamondbacks have failed to plate more than 3 runs at any point during a five-start winless stretch. Over his last five starts, Kelly is (0–3) with a 4.50 ERA with his last win on June 12th vs the Phillies. Kelly is (3–3, 3.04 ERA) at home this season while holding opponents to two or fewer runs in five of those starts.
The Brewers are 4–0 in the last 4 meetings vs the Diamondbacks and 4–0 in Davies’ last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Diamondbacks are 1–4 in Kelly’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1–4 in Kelly’s last 5 starts overall.
I give the edge to the Brewers with Davies on the mound, eager for a victory. Milwaukee’s offense has not supported Davies in recent weeks but this matchup bodes well for the Brewers facing the Diamondbacks rookie right-hander. Milwaukee will need to make a push towards the NL Central race and tonight’s matchup presents a good opportunity for the Brewers.