Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Free NBA Playoff Pick, 4–15–2018
Free NBA Total Pick by Vincent King of King Sports Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves (47–35) vs Houston Rockets (65–17)
NBA: Sunday, April 15, 9:00 PM EST
Line: Rockets -11, 216.5
Last Meeting: 3/18/18 MINN 120 HOU 129
Game 1 of this Western Conference Playoff matchup features the 8th seed Minnesota Timberwolves and the #1 seed Houston Rockets. Vegas lists the Rockets as -11 point home favorites in Sunday’s matchup with the O/U at 216.5. Houston went 34–7 at home this season while Minnesota was 17–24 on the road.
The Timberwolves won their final three games of the regular season to squeeze into the Playoffs, beating out the Nuggets by one game. This was clearly a different team without Jimmy Butler and his veteran presence in the lineup will be paramount to their success vs the Rockets. The Timberwolves come into this game 8th in scoring with 109.5 points a game. Jimmy Butler is averaging 22.2 points and 4.9 assists while Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.3 points and 12.3 rebounds. Andrew Wiggins is the third double-digit scorer and Jeff Teague leads the team averaging seven assists. Defensively, the Wolves allow 107 PPG and their defense will need to play intense to stop one of the best offenses in the NBA.
Houston is 2nd in the NBA averaging 112.4 points per game led by James Harden (30.4 points and 8.8 assists) and Chris Paul (18.6 points and 7.9 assists). The Rockets are tied for 6th in scoring defense as they allow 103.9 points per game. Houston had Minnesota’s number in the regular season, sweeping all four meetings and covering the spread in all four games. The Rockets are 9–3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Northwest but 0–4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Rockets have a clear shooting advantage and if they get hot from beyond the arc, it could be a long night for the Wolves. With that being said, -11 points is a lot of chalk for an NBA Playoff game and the Rockets are just 9–17 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The spread seems off which is why I am looking towards the Total of 216.5. I see value in the Over 216.5 with the Rockets offense and Jimmy Butler back in the lineup for Minnesota. I had a Total set around 221 so I like taking the Over 216.5.
Minnesota vs Houston Total Pick: Over 216.5
