New Mexico Lobos vs Boise State Broncos Free NCAAF Pick, 9–14–2017

Free College Football Pick by Lyle Clark of ATS Experts

ATS Expert Free College Football Prediction
Date: September 14, 2017
Game Time: 8:00 pm

NCAAF Odds: Boise St 14.5 | 58.5

New Mexico Lobos (1–1) vs Boise State Broncos (1–1)

The Mountain West takes center stage on Thursday night as the New Mexico Lobos take on the Boise State Broncos. The Lobos are off a very tough 30–28 home loss to New Mexico State, while the Broncos are off an equally tough loss as they fell 47–44 to Washington State in OT. Boise State won last year at New Mexico by a score of 49–21.

The Lobos have been a decent offensive team so far as they come in ranked 42nd in the nation in total offense (455.5 YPG), 60th in passing (238 YPG), 42nd in rushing (217.5 YPG) and 62nd in scoring at 33.0 PPG. The Lobos can’t afford to start slow on offense again this week which cost the Lobos against New Mexico State and also allowed FCS member, Abilene Christian, to hang around longer than it probably should have the week prior.

New Mexico’s defense has been torched in the pass, 122nd (337.5 YPG) but they are 7th vs the run (53.5 YPG) while allowing 22.0 PPG. Tonight will be a better test for this defense facing the Broncos.

Boise State is clearly not the same team as they have been in recent years but they are still a solid team. The biggest issue has been taking care of the football. A fumble return and an interception, both for touchdowns, kept Washington State in the game and forced OT. The Broncos defense crumbled and the Cougars scored 21 unanswered points.

The key for this offense will be finding a ground game. Bryan Harsin needs to figure out a way for his team to kill the clock on the ground when his team has the lead. That means extra carries for Alexander Mattison down the stretch. On offense, the Broncos come in ranked 85th in the nation in total offense (381.0 YPG), 73rd in passing (223.5 YPG), 72nd in rushing (157.5 YPG) and 54th in scoring at 34.0 PPG.

Defensively, the Broncos have been susceptible to the passing game allowing 286 YPG. They rank 5th vs the run (49.0 YPG) while allowing 30 PPG, which is 92nd in the nation.

Pick Analysis: I look for Boise State to bounce back in a big way tonight vs the Lobos. There are some key stats that really stand out to me in this matchup. The Lobos have been pretty well balanced on offense but they enter this game with a 3rd down percentage of 22.7% compared to Boise State which converts 42.4%. In addition, the Broncos defense has racked up 8 sacks compared to the Lobos 4. Time of possession also favors Boise State 32:14 to the Lobos 27:60. I’m laying the points in this matchup as I see Boise State winning by 17.

New Mexico vs Boise St. Free Pick: Boise State -14.5