NFC Wild Card Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams, 1–6–2018
Free NFL Spread Pick by Kris Saint of King Sports Picks
Atlanta Falcons (10–6, 7–9 ATS) vs Los Angeles Rams (11–5, 9–7 ATS)
Saturday, January 6th, 8:15 PM EST
Line: Rams -5.5, 48
The Los Angeles Rams will host the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Wild Card round Saturday night from the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. The Rams are currently -5.5 point favorites over the visiting Falcons, a line that has adjusted from the -6.5 point spread we saw offshore and the O/U is 48.
Dan Quinn’s Falcons have plenty of postseason experience to draw from after last season’s run to the Super Bowl. However, this is not the same Falcons team we saw in 2016–17. The Falcons have been middle of the pack, offensively this season, compared to last season’s top-ranked offense. Regardless, this team fought to get back into the playoffs after winning 7 of 10 down the stretch. The key to this team winning in the playoffs will be their defense. The Atlanta defense had a strong season against both the run and pass and they came up huge in the Falcons week 17 win by holding Carolina to only 248 total yards. The Falcons are conceding an average of 19.7 points per game, good for eighth in the NFL
The Rams were the breakout team of the NFL in 2017. A season removed from going (4–12) they made a big splash in the NFC going (12–4). Los Angeles is tops in the NFL in scoring at 29.9 points per game, a full point higher than any other team. Led by QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley, the Rams offense can burn opponents both in the air and on the ground. This will be Goff’s first NFL Playoff appearance but playing at home is a bonus and we expect the Rams to get Gurley involved early and often to take the pressure of the young quarterback. LA’s defense also had a stellar season, and they are especially tough against the pass. Aaron Donald had a big season, matching a career-high with 11 sacks, and he will be one Matt Ryan will have to be aware of in this matchup. Donald is perhaps the best defensive tackles in the game. Donald will be the tone setter for this defense and a game changer for this Rams team.
The matchup to watch will be the Falcons rushing attack vs the Rams rush defense. The Rams have been susceptible to the run this season, surrendering 122.4 rushing yards per game. The Falcons have struggled down the stretch to establish a run game but look for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to test this weakness.
The biggest difference between these two teams is experience at the quarterback position and as a team. The Rams are young and have the youngest head coach in football, Sean McVay. The Falcons let a Super Bowl slip through their hands last year vs the Patriots so expect them to play with purpose. I think +5.5 points is too many to pass up for a Falcons team that could make a run in the playoffs. They are the underdog this season and flying under the radar but they can not be overlooked. I think this game should be tightly contested which is why I am taking the Falcons +5.5.
Falcons vs Rams Prediction: Falcons +5.5
