Patriots vs Falcons Super Bowl 51 Prediction
The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are set to square off in Super Bowl LI on Sunday February 5th in NRG Stadium, Houston, TX. Most books have not moved off the 3 point spread, favoring New England, while the Total can be found anywhere from 57.5 to 59 depending on the book.
Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick will be participating in their seventh Super Bowl together. It’s a different story with Atlanta as the entire team has appeared in just five Super Bowl’s combined.
To get you ready for Sunday’s showdown, here’s a detailed look at this marquee matchup.
When: Sunday, February 5, 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston
Television: Fox
Over/Under: 58.5
Spread: New England (-3)
Moneyline: New England (-145) and Atlanta (+125)
Super Bowl Betting Strategy
The Patriots are slight favorites in this matchup, but the small margin indicates this game could be considered closer to a toss-up. When a high-profile team with a national fanbase such as the Patriots plays on the biggest stage, the money tends to come in heavily on the known commodity. That known commodity is Tom Brady and Coach Belichick. We should see some action come in on Atlanta this week from the public considering how well they have played in the playoffs. If there is one team that can keep up with the Patriots offensively, that team is the Atlanta Falcons.
Current reports are showing that around 60 percent of the bets against the spread are on New England.
Oddsmakers are obviously aware of this trend and have to take factors such as various betting trends into account when setting the lines. It’s safe to assume that if oddsmakers felt New England were heavy favorites this line would have opened around a touchdown but they know how good Atlanta has played and the amount of points they have scored in the playoffs.
Knowing these trends can be useful if trying to employ the contrarian betting strategy. This strategy certainly isn’t foolproof, but when the money is pouring in on the high-profile team, it’s often a good time to go against the grain, which in this case means taking the Falcons with the points.
Keys to Super Bowl 51
We know both teams can score but this game will come down to defense. Which team makes key 3rd down stops and which team holds the opposition to field goals and not touchdowns. New England has proven all season that their defense is one of the best in the NFL and allowed only 15 points per game in the regular season. Another key stat is the Patriots defense, on average, allowed only 88 rushing yards per game. As good as Matt Ryan is from the pocket, this team has a two-headed rushing monster in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman who accounted for 19 rushing TD’s in the regular season.
The Falcons have struggled at times to generate a consistent pass rush, they tied for 16th in the league with 34 sacks during the regular season.
Vic Beasley is a serious pass-rush threat that the Patriots will need to account for, but the Falcons are lacking much of a threat beyond him. Beasley’s 15.5 sacks accounted for nearly half the Falcons’ total.
Brady is exceptional at recognizing blitzes and Coach Belichick has a knack for including players in the game plan that may not have shown up on film this season. His ability to add wrinkles to this offense has been one of the foundations to their success over the years and you can book it that they will have plays to offset the blitz.
Final Prediction
The underdog has covered 11 of the past 15 Super Bowls. Eight of those 11 underdogs won outright, delivering big profits to moneyline bettors.The Broncos pulled it off last year in a 24–10 win over Carolina as 5-point dogs.
Tom Brady and the Patriots offense receive much of the hype but they haven’t faced an offense quite like Atlanta’s and it will be interesting to see how the Patriots play if the game results in a shoot out?
Over the past three seasons, New England is just 2–5 when allowing 28 or more points.
The Falcons don’t have the same defensive personnel as the Patriots and they’ve given up 28 or more points nine times this year alone. Their offensive firepower has bailed them out they’re 6–3 in those games.
This is such an intriguing matchup and we can’t wait for kickoff. Brady will not be overwhelmed by this experience as he is just playing for legacy and one more ring quite possibly makes him the greatest to ever play the position. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have very little experience but this team doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the playoffs.
If Atlanta’s offense sets the tone early it will be a big momentum boost for this team. Atlanta may have some early drive jitters but they have to make sure they don’t allow the nerves to carry over past the 1st quarter. This team can score at will and if they are able to remain composed they will win this game. Atlanta seems to be heating up at the right time of the season and I like their offense to get the job done in Houston.
Super Bowl 51 Pick & Prediction: Falcons +3
Falcons 31, Patriots 28
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