Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Free NCAAF Pick, 11–9–2019
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Time: Saturday, November 9, 2019 12:00 PM EST
Odds: Minnesota +6.5, O/U 47.5
A pair of undefeated teams from the Big 10 will take the field on Saturday in anticipated matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions (8–0) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (8–0). Oddsmakers favor the Nittany Lions (-6.5) on the road in this pivotal top 15 matchup.
Penn State is 5–3 ATS on the season, 3–0 ATS on the road and they are 4–1–2 ATS the last 7 meetings vs. the Gophers. Penn State is coming off a bye week, but the Nittany Lions earned a 28–7 win at Michigan State two weeks ago. The Nittany Lions have been led by their defense this year, allowing just 9.6 points and 280.5 yards per game. This team is no slouch offensively averaging 38.5 PPG and 422 total yards per game. The Lions are battled tested winning games on the road vs. Iowa and Michigan State and they are 12–5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Minnesota has been the surprise of the Big 10 and has helped bettors cash on a 5–2–1 ATS record this season and the Golden Gophers are 5–0 SU at home. Tanner Morgan has been one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the Big Ten this season, completing 65.3 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions. The Golden Gophers have won four straight games by at least 23 points and they average 38.4 PPG while their defense allows 20 PPG. Antoine Winfield Jr. leads this defensive secondary with 5 interceptions and as a unit the defense allows only 166 passing yards per game which ranks them 9th in the nation.
This matchup features two teams that are led by their defense with the Nittany Lions 9th ranked defense and the Gophers 13th ranked defense. The Nittany Lions have hit the under in four straight road games and in seven of their last eight conference games. The Under is 5–2 in Golden Gophers last 7 home games and 6–0 in Golden Gophers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. I see this game falling Under 47.5 points in a hard fought game where the defense takes center stage.