San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free Super Bowl LIV Pick, 2–3–2020
Free Super Bowl Pick by Garrett Perry of SportsPicksForum.com
San Francisco 49ers (15–3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14–4)
Time: Sunday, February 3, 2020, 6:30 PM EST
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5, O/U 54
Super Bowl 54 will kick off from Miami on Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers (11–6–1 ATS) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12–5–1 ATS). Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes fought back from a midseason knee injury to lead the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years. San Francisco returns to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2012 but they have not hoisted the Lombardi Trophy since 1995. The 49ers have been the class of the NFC all season with a top-ranked defense and the second-best rushing offense in the NFL. Oddsmakers opened with the Chiefs (-1.5) favored and while the spread and money line have held firm the total is on the rise. Most books have already moved the Total to 54.5, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down as bettors continue to hammer the OVER in anticipation of a high-scoring affair in the Sunshine State.
The 49ers easily got through the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round before taking down the Packers, 37–20. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only threw six pass completions for 77 yards and zero touchdowns in the win but It was all about the defense and running back Raheem Mostert for San Francisco. Mostert ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns on a night when the 49ers piled up 285 total rushing yards and their game plan will be similar vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has been weak against the rush this season allowing 128.2 yards per game ranking them 26th in the NFL. The goal for the 49ers is to run the football, win the time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field.
The Chiefs’ edge in this matchup starts with Mahomes. They finished the regular season fifth in passing yards per game and they have been better than the 49ers in turnover differential, +8 to +4. The Chiefs have a propensity for starting slow in the Playoffs and were trailing 10–0 vs. the Titans in the AFC Championship game but in the end, Patrick Mahomes was too much for Tennessee. Like the 49ers, the Titans run-first offense was successful at keeping Mahomes off the field at first but the Chiefs rallied to score 28 unanswered points and flex their offensive muscles. Kansas City’s potent passing offense will face the NFL’s best pass defense, spearheaded by a confident shutdown corner in Richard Sherman and bolstered by the deepest defensive line in the NFL. There aren’t many holes in the 49ers defense but you can bet that if there are on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes will find it.
This is the biggest stage in professional sports and both teams will need time to warm up to the environment. Both teams have young quarterbacks but only Kansas City will lean on their quarterback to win the game. San Francisco will lean on the run and their shutdown defense which could make Mahomes uncomfortable. Kansas City may be the team that has the game’s most impactful player in Mahomes, but it is not the more complete team. The Chiefs have plenty of playmakers on offense but their defense is suspect and the 49ers’ strengths play right into the Chiefs’ weaknesses. I still believe that defense wins Championships and the 49ers defense has shown little weakness all season so I expect this unit to make the stops when called upon. Look for the San Francisco 49ers +1.5 to win their 6th Super Bowl on Sunday as slight underdogs.
49ers vs. Chiefs FREE Super Bowl 54 Pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5
