TCU Horned Frogs vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction, 3–22–2024

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4 min readMar 22, 2024

Free NCAAB Prediction by Mark Ansil of DocumentedHandicappers.com

Mark Ansil is 215–112 (66%), +$46,165 this Season in NCAAB

TCU Horned Frogs (21–12) vs. Utah State Aggies (27–6)

In the Midwest Region, 8-seed Utah State, winners of the Mountain West Conference regular-season title, is set to take on 9-seed TCU, which put together an impressive resume while competing in the Big 12. Generally speaking, the #8/#9 seeds are some of the best matchups with razor-thin margins producing entertaining games. Vegas has pegged the Horned Frogs as -3.5 point favorites but let’s take a look at this NCAA Tournament matchup below.

TCU vs. Utah State Game Info

Date: Friday, March 22, 2024
Time: 9:55 PM ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Spread: TCU -3.5, Utah State +3.5
Moneyline: TCU -178, Utah State +146
Total: 150.5

TCU Betting Preview

This is the third straight NCAA Tournament appearance for Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs, who picked up a few signature wins throughout the season, including back-to-back top-10 upsets of Oklahoma and Houston in January. TCU (19–14 ATS, 9–9 Big 12) finished with a .500 record in an ultra-competitive Big 12 Conference, closing the season with a tough two-point loss to UCF. The Horned Frogs opened the Big 12 Tournament with a key victory over Oklahoma before falling to #1-seeded Houston in the quarterfinals. The Horned Frogs are scoring 79.2 points per game with 37 rebounds per game and 17 assists per game while allowing 71.2 points per game this season. The Horned Frogs have three players averaging at least 11.1 points per game, with Emanuel Miller leading the pack with 15.9 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game, and 2.7 assists per game.

Utah State Betting Preview

It’s the third tournament appearance in four years for Utah State and the first under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, who came to Logan, Utah after leading Montana State to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. The Aggies were one of the nation’s hottest teams for most of the 2023–24 season, getting out to a 19–2 start before running into a few roadblocks to close the year. With that in mind, the Aggies still finished with an impressive 27–6 record, including 14–4 in the six-bid Mountain West Conference. Utah State (14–14–3 ATS) has non-conference wins against Akron, UC Irvine, and San Francisco and spent 8 weeks in the AP Top 25. The Aggies are scoring 79.8 points per game with 36.3 rebounds per game and 16.4 assists per game while allowing 70.3 points per game this season. The Aggies are led by Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor who is averaging 18 points per game, 9.2 rebounds per game, and 2.9 assists per game.

Free Pick

The NCAA Tournament always comes down to experience, clutch points, and which team is more battled tested. Stylistically, metrics indicate that the two teams are in a similar sphere on the offensive end while TCU has a stronger defensive profile. Both teams faced NCAA Tournament-level competition throughout the year and should be unfazed by the increased intensity of the NCAA Tournament. These two teams have a common opponent this season as both lost to Nevada, TCU by 13 at a neutral site, and Utah State by 15 at home. It’s tough to overlook the Horned Frogs conference schedule and the fact they overcame the gauntlet and the fact that they found their way here is a testament to their character. TCU will have to play tough defense, similar to how San Diego State defended the Aggies, to win this game. Utah State went 3–5–2 ATS in their last 10 games which shows they were tested late in the season and haven’t been great against the spread. My lean is with the Horned Frogs -3.5 as their tough schedule isn’t exactly indicative of how good of a team they are capable of becoming and they should be able to withstand the Aggies’ runs down the stretch.