Thursday Night NCAA Football: Northern Illinois vs Toledo, Free Pick & Prediction — 11–2–2017
Free College Football Prediction by Patrick Adams of Oddsboard.com
Northern Illinois Huskies (6–2) vs Toledo Rockets (7–1)
Thursday, November 2nd, 6:00 pm EST
NCAAF Odds: Toledo -8, 57.5
Northern Illinois
The MAC gets the spotlight on Thursday night as the the Northern Illinois Huskies will travel to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets. Northern Illinois and Toledo sit at the top of the MAC West Division and the winner will maintain control of the West.
Northern Illinois set the standard for the rest of the MAC by winning six consecutive West Division titles from 2010–15. They took a step back last season going 5–7 but they have bounced back this season as they are off to a (6–2) start. The Huskies’ only losses came against Boston College (23–20) and San Diego State (34–28).
One of the key areas of this matchup will be Northern Illinois’ defense vs the Toledo passing attack. NIU has allowed only 8 passing touchdowns this season and they own the league’s best pass rush with 25 sacks. NIU’s secondary has 13 picks and they don’t allow many big plays downfield.
With a standout defense in place, Northern Illinois hasn’t needed a dynamic offense to win most of its games this season. The Huskies have scored more than 30 points only twice. This team prefers to establish the rush and you can expect NIU to run the football vs Toledo.
NIU Betting Trends
- Huskies are 4–1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
- Huskies are 15–5–1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win
- Huskies are 7–3 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Toledo Rockets
QB Logan Woodside leads an explosive Toledo offense that is 23rd in the FBS in passing with 289.5 yards per game and 23rd in rushing by putting up 227.1 yards per contest. Toledo also ranks 12th in scoring offense with an average of 40.3 points per game. Let’s just say this offense can light up the scoreboard.
Toledo has averaged 7.1 yards per play this season and 7.6 yards per play in the four conference wins.
It’s been tough to evaluate this Rockets defense. They have played with some sizable leads and allowed 5.4 yards per play, but now that MAC play is going on, the Rockets have only allowed 4.5 yards per play within the conference. This defensive unit does have some areas for concern as they are last in the MAC in red zone defense, have generated only 10 sacks and forced just 10 turnovers.
Rockets Betting Trends
- Rockets are 19–8–1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win
- Rockets are 1–6 ATS in their last 7 home games
NIU vs Toledo Betting Prediction
This is a marquee MAC matchup and it should be an entertaining game to follow. I expect a close game. Five out of the last six meetings in this series were decided by a touchdown or less. Northern Illinois has taken a significant step forward since last season, with a solid rushing attack and solid defense leading the way. I think Toledo is the better team with a more experienced quarterback which is a bonus in close conference matchups. However, I like the Huskies to keep this close enough to cover the +8 point spread. Expect Toledo to win by a touchdown and NIU covers as road dogs.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo NCAAF Pick: Northern Illinois +8
