Toledo vs BYU CFB Betting Prediction, 9/30/2016 — Documented Handicappers

Toledo Rockets vs BYU Cougars

FREE CFB Betting Prediction 9–30–2016

Toledo (3–0, 3–0 ATS) vs BYU (1–3, 4–0 ATS)
Date: Friday September 30th
Game Time: 10:15pm EST
Venue: Lavell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Line: Cougars -3.5, 52

Documented Handicapper: Carson Kelly

BYU hasn’t started the season like they anticipated with Taysom Hill back under center. However, they arguably have one of the toughest schedules in the nation. BYU has lost 3 straight games with a 3 point loss to West Virginia, a 3 point loss to UCLA and 1 point loss to Utah. These close games against very good teams paints a different picture than their (1–3) record. It doesn’t get easier as they host the (3–0) Toledo Rockets Friday night.

Toledo has been impressive through the first few weeks as they have scored 128 points and allowed 30 points. The Rockets are 15th in the FBS in passing offense (333.7 yards) and 28th in rushing with 230 yards per game and their 42 PPG rank them 19th in the country.

Defensively, Toledo ranks #7th in the nation in total defense giving up 251 yards PPG compared to BYU which ranks 58th giving up 382 YPG.

BYU’s quarterback Taysom Hill has been struggling as he continues to really force the ball into tight coverage. Hill has just 4 touchdowns this season to 7 interceptions. Just a couple seasons ago he was in consideration for the Heisman Trophy and now he is searching for his identity. Confidence is everything in quarterback play and right now it’s hard to imagine Taysom Hill is playing with 100% confidence. This is a concern for BYU backers.

Toledo’s manageable schedule and coming off a BYE week gives them an edge as their players will be fast and fresh. What concerns me with BYU is if their fight has been grinded down by playing a tough opening slate and losing such close games? Typically a BYU team at home would be favored by more than -4 points which shows this Toledo team is a cause for concern.

Cougars are 6–0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 4–0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4–0 last 4 non-conference games. Toledo is 7–0–1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 10–1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 9–2–2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.

My money backs the Toledo Rockets in this game and we’ll take the +4 points. I see this game playing close and there is something to be said about the confidence you have when winning and the confidence you lack when losing. Right now, Toledo feels as if they can compete with any team in the country and until they lose it’s tough to argue. They won’t be able to light up the scoreboard vs this BYU defense but their rushing attack could wear down the BYU defense that is already on their heels following their tough early season schedule. Don’t be surprised if Toledo wins this game outright but take the points in this Friday night matchup.

Toledo vs BYU CFB Betting Pick: Toledo +4