Angels in the Outfield: The 2016 All-MLB Team
Stellar defenders all.
Over the past two weeks, I’ve written about the two players who will anchor the rotation and bullpen of my expansion dream team. This week, I’m examining the three outfielders who I would add.
Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball for a few years now. He won his second MVP of his career last November, a number that would almost certainly be higher if he played for a team that actually won baseball games. Trout owned an MLB-leading 10.6 bWAR in 2016. The next-highest player in bWAR was Mookie Betts (9.6), and tied for third were Jose Altuve and Kris Bryant (7.7). FiveThirtyEight wrote a couple of months ago about how Trout has been the greatest player of all time, measured in WAR, at every stage of his career, matching or exceeding the cumulative WAR totals through age 24 of Ty Cobb, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott. (Beyond the Box Score shows totals through the age-25 season, in which Cobb, Mantle, Hornsby, and A-Rod exceed Trout, but only because of more games played.) Trout is also an above average defensive player, who makes up for a weak arm (rARM between 0 and -6 every year he has played) with good fielding and excellent range. His range comes from his speed, which has helped him swipe 143 bases in his career with an 80.4% success rate.
Hitting is where Trout’s value really goes off the charts. From 2012 to 2016, Trout owns the league’s 5th highest batting average (.306), 5th highest hit total (890), and 2nd most runs scored (600). He also has tallied impressive numbers of doubles (169–12th in the league) triples (37–1st in the league), home runs (163 — tied for fourth in the league with David Ortiz), RBI (481–6th), and BB (468–2nd). It’s these totals that give Trout an career offensive WAR (oWAR) of 46.2 — almost 50% higher than the man in second place over that same timespan and one of the greatest hitters of all time, Miguel Cabrera (32.1).
All the same, Trout’s offensive prowess doesn’t make him a lock for remaining in center field, where he has spent his entire career. As I mentioned above, Trout’s main liability has been his arm strength, and although he has stellar range, his skills may be better suited to play in left field if there’s a suitable defensive player to pick up the slack in center (more on that later).
If there’s one outfielder who can compete with Trout in the category of “most fun to watch,” his name is Mookie Betts. Drafted by the Red Sox in the 5th round of the 2011 amateur draft, Betts made his debut against the New York Yankees in 2014. In his professional career he has never posted a batting average lower than .267, and since 2013 his average has never dipped below .290. And although his 2016 campaign started “slow” (.266/.298/.459 in March/April), within a few months Betts was the best hitter in the league, posting near-Triple Crown level numbers in the season’s second half: .338/.388/.547 with 54 RBI and 13 HR. His 9.6 bWAR for the season nearly matched Mike Trout’s (10.6), and far exceeded Jose Altuve’s 7.7.
As a defender, Betts is also exceptional. He committed only 1 error in 361 chances in 2016 and finished with a defensive WAR (dWAR) of 2.8, good for second in the entire league behind Kevin Kiermaier’s 3.0. His cannon for a right arm earned him a rARM rating of 4 in 2016 and 2015, and his Rtot, an estimate of “the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made,” was an amazing 20. Mike Trout’s Rtot for 2016? 3. Betts’ willingness to go and make hard plays is one reason — totally separate from his bat — that he holds great defensive added value to any team. This guy’s arm strength and range makes him a lock to be our starting right fielder.
At this point, I’ve probably outed myself as someone who tends to place a strong emphasis on defensive metrics. Baseball is, after all, a two-sided game that demands duality of all its players, except in the American League, where designated hitters and pitchers are permitted the luxury (travesty?) of being miserable on one side of the ball. Outfielders are never permitted such an advantage, and the sheer size of major league outfields demands that their occupants be able to take away opposing runs with speed, arm strength, reaction time, instincts, and overall athleticism.
My favorite of the unsung heroes who excels in all of these categories is Tampa Bay center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, the only person to beat Betts in dWAR for 2016. Kiermaier’s really fun to watch, because he routinely turns in plays like these:
I’m not alone in my appreciation for Kiermaier: Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs wrote over the weekend about how underrated Kiermaier is, primarily because he had a “roughly average” offensive stat line (.246/.331/.410 with an OPS+ of 104 in 2016) but actually faced one of the toughest slates of pitchers in all of baseball, second only to his teammate Logan Forsythe. Still, his “roughly average” bat has managed to be far more productive than the average player, as Kiermaier has accumulated 11.8 Wins Above Average (WAA) in the past three seasons. It’s not quite Trout’s MLB-leading 20.8 WAA over the same timespan, but Kiermaier’s total is still good enough to be third among all outfielders over that timespan. The only man between Kiermaier and Trout? That would be Mookie Betts (20.4).
But looking at the offensive numbers doesn’t even take into account the best part of Kiermaier’s game: his ability to play lockdown center field. He has great range, as the range charts below show. The graphics display base hits (green outline) and outs (red outline) normalized to a starting point (black) with the catch rate represented in varying shades. On the left is Adam Jones, a Gold Glove center fielder, and on the right is Kiermaier. Notice how much more lateral range Kiermaier has, especially on deep hits which require him to run towards the fence.
Kiermaier’s arm only makes him more deadly: he was one of 15 outfielders in 2016 make throws in excess of 100 mph, and he did it nine times (the second-highest total was Carlos Gomez’s 5). Here’s the other thing about Kiermaier: if we were actually setting up an expansion team, he’d be an achievable target. He’s currently set to play in Tampa for $3M on a one-year contract. Believe it or not, that number represents an approximately 500% raise from his salary in 2016, in which he put up his impressive numbers despite making the league minimum. If his numbers continue in 2017, he’ll be due for a major payout.
So that wraps it up: the fantasy draft for the expansion team puts Trout in left, Kiermaier in center, and Betts in right. That’s a lineup that no batter or pitcher would ever want to see wearing the same uniforms.
Many thanks to the folks at Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference for making all of the data available.
