Episode 21: The Breadbasket of Baseball
Diving into listener questions on the AL and NL Central
To go along with our podcast season preview of the National and American League Central divisions, Zac Crippen and Pete Laclede reached into the mailbag to answer some questions from listeners. You can listen to our whole season preview episode below, or read on to get to the listener questions.
Which team in each division (NL Central and AL Central) is emerging from the offseason as most improved?
Zac: Let’s start with the American League, where Lance Lynn apparently got fed up with batting and jumped from the Cardinals to the Twins, where he can cede duties at the dish to a designated hitter. The $12M one-year contract looks like a bargain for the Twins, who get the owner of a 129 ERA+ and a 3.86 FIP over the last three years. He’s a great addition to a rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and, since February, Jake Odorizzi.. The Twins also signed Logan Morrison on a one-year deal, and earlier this offseason picked up Fernando Rodney, who in his age-40 season last year quietly collected a fantastic 3.03 FIP across 55 IP. After coming up short in the postseason last year, the Twins front office seems to be all in for 2018 (and only 2018), with all of the above new hires on one-year contracts. [Note: As I write this, Ken Rosenthal is breaking the news that Twins’ slugger Miguel Sano will not be suspended by Major League Baseball for his alleged committal of sexual assault in 2015.]
In the National League, the standard answer is probably the Cardinals. But I disagree. I’m really excited about the Brewers. I’ve been a fan of this franchise since I read Jon Pessah’s The Game (you should check it out), and their ability to get maximum productivity on a below average payroll is consistently impressive. Although their offseason has not been noisy in terms of the number of signings, it’s been splashy. The Brewers wooed Lorenzo Cain with a 5-year, $80M offer (that makes him the second-highest paid Brewer after Ryan Braun) and acquired Christian Yelich from Derek Jeter’s rummage sale in Miami. Fun fact: David Stearns pulled off both of those transactions on the same day in January. Fangraphs currently projects the Brewers to win less than half their games this year, but I think they’re going to challenge St. Louis for a wild card.
Pete: In the AL Central, I’m going to agree with Zac that it has to be the Minnesota Twins. They signed Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi to bolster an ok rotation into a good one. Lance Lynn started to get a bad rap towards the end of his time in St. Louis, but was a bedrock of that rotation for years. Additionally, he brings a 3.43 ERA, which is about 20% better than the average ERA across MLB last year. If Ervin Santana can hang in there and deliver another 175 inning season, I think this is a great 1–2–3 punch. It isn’t as good as Cleveland’s, but it’s certainly better than Detroit, Chicago’s White Sox, and the Royals. Speaking of which, it’s worth noting that the rest of the division was quiet, especially as the White Sox and Royals appear, more than I initially thought last September, to be headed towards rebuilding years while Detroit just gets older. For the Twins to go out and shore up their biggest weak spot sends a message they are here to challenge the Indians.
In the NL Central, I know Zac disagrees with me, but I still really like what the St. Louis Cardinals did both in player signings (getting Marcell Ozuna during the Derek Jeter/Miami Marlins fire-sale could be a game changer for the Cardinal offense), as well as coaching shakeups. For the last 3–4 years the Cardinals pitching staff appeared to be breaking apart. After Dusty Baker and his coaches were run out of Washington, St. Louis grabbed Mike Maddux, who was at the helm of a fantastic Nationals rotation and a 2x World Series runner-up Texas Rangers in 2010/2011. They’re also bringing back Jose Oquendo to shore up some awful fundamental flaws defensively last year. Overall, I like the direction of the Cardinals from top to bottom, as do many of their core beat writers, as noted here in The Athletic. Plus, watch out for Ozuna to be a .300 hitter, 30 HR, 100 RBI guy this year. If he can pull that off, based on what that lineup is capable of as proven last year, watch out!
What is the single most interesting offseason signing in each division?
Zac: In the AL, I think we’ve got to look at the Jake Odorizzi signing (Minnesota, 1 yr/$6.3M) and the Fernando Rodney deal. My bold prediction: Minnesota’s fate this year will largely hinge on whether or not these one year deals pay off. Odorizzi in 2015 posted a 3.61 FIP and almost averaged 1 strikeout per inning. In the two succeeding years, he’s gotten worse on almost every metric, including innings pitched. Maybe new Twins pitching Coach Garvin Alston sees something he can fix; if he’s right, Santana-Odorizzi-Lynn is scary. And Rodney, one of last year’s best relievers, is 40 this year. If Alston can keep him healthy, the combined $10.8M the Twins are spending on these two guys is highway robbery.
In the NL, I love the Cain and Yelich pickups, but I’ve already mentioned those. So here I’ll choose Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals, which is a potentially high-impact move that reverberate throughout the division for at least the next two years (Ozuna is in arbitration year 3 next year). It’s easy to overlook players in Miami who aren’t named Giancarlo Stanton, but Ozuna’s .312/.376/.547 last year was good for 4.8 fWAR (21st in MLB) and he hit more home runs than Joey Votto at a higher batting average than Mike Trout. He’s likely going to be the best bat in the Cardinals’ lineup and will more than make up for the Cardinals’ loss of Stephen Piscotty to Oakland.
Pete: In the AL Central, it has to be Lance Lynn. I talked about his impact above, but I think it’s a big deal he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cardinals and then took less money in Minnesota. This is a great sign to me that the Twins are more than just a great 2017, they’re for real, and there’s an excitement in the market to be part of it..
In the NL Central I really like the Brewers going out to get Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. The Brew Crew had a surprisingly good year last year, barely missing that Wild Card spot by a game, and leading the division until late July before finally capitulating to the solid Cubs team who of course beat the Nationals in the NLDS. They needed some depth, and even though Ryan Braun is looking at more time at 1B or 2B these days, this could be the deepest outfield in the Central.
Will the eventual 2018 World Series champion come from either division?
Zac: The best candidates are Cleveland and Chicago, though St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Minnesota all earn honorable mentions. Cleveland will have the tougher path, having to potentially get through Boston, New York, and/or Houston on the way to the World Series. I don’t love their chances — the lineup has a lot of holes after Lindor/Ramirez/Encarnacion, despite a fantastic starting rotation led by 2017 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (Fangraphs ranks the Indians’ rotation as #2 in baseball after the Astros).
I like Chicago’s chances much more: “Bryzzo” leads a cast of six batters who each had an fWAR above 2.0 last year, and there’s buzz of Kyle Schwarber having fixed his swing in the offseason. Add these bats to the Cubs’ Darvish-boosted #4-ranked rotation, and you have the tools to take on and beat the Nationals or the Dodgers in the National League Championship. And there’s not much more I’d rather see in baseball than a Carlos Correa/George Springer/Jose Altuve/Justin Verlander/Gerrit Cole vs Kris Bryant/Anthony Rizzo/Wilson Conteras/Jose Quintana/Yu Darvish showdown. If that happens, I take the Cubs in 7.
Pete: It’s the safe pick, but for the Chicago Cubs, it’s the world series or bust this year. Yes, I said it. If they aren’t at least in the NLCS this year, I’m going to be shocked. Their rotation is solid, Joe Maddon has the best platoon game in baseball so their bench isn’t even really a list of backups, and those no-names (joking) Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are posed to be the next Bash Brothers. Minus the steroids of course. I don’t see any of the AL Central teams making it past the winners of the AL East or West, though.
Who’s the best pitcher in each division? The best batter?
Zac: AL Central: The best pitcher is Kluber, and it’s not particularly close. His ground-ball rate has climbed since 2015 when league fly ball rates are way up. His FIP last year was an absurd 2.50. If there’s a clutch pitcher it’s Kluber, whose left-on-base rate (82.6%) trailed only Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks) and Clayton Kershaw. For batters, I’m partial to Lindor, whose .273/.337/.505 last year was good for 33 HRs and 5.9 WAR — ahead of Justin Turner, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. Keep an eye on Brian Dozier though, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Last year his stat line almost mirrored Lindor’s: .271/.359/.498 with 34 HRs.
NL Central: Based on last year’s numbers, the Brewers’ Jimmy Nelson was the best pitcher in the division, after a breakout year that showed massive improvements from his 2016 performance (3.05 FIP from 5.12). Nelson is a major reason why I’m bullish on the Brewers this year (see above), but I really like the Cubs’ Jose Quintana as a candidate for the best in the Central. Quintana has been wildly inconsistent (and was with the White Sox as well) but his “ace-level potential in the second half of the [2017] season, as Fangraphs’ profile puts it, leaves plenty of room for optimism. Quintana is a high-ceiling guy who I think has his best years ahead of him. Look for him to make a push to be the Cubs’ bona fide ace. For batters: Kris Bryant is as far ahead of the competition as Kluber is. He’s far and away the best offensive player in the NL Central.
Pete: Pitching wise in the AL, how can you not like Cory Kluber, both based on his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as well as his ERA of 2.25 and .869 WHIP? He was dominant from start to finish really. Cleveland still has the best rotation in the division, and as long as Bauer and Carrasco each get 175–200 innings pitched to help him out, I don’t see a legitimate challenge in the division yet. Keep an eye on Danny Duffy of KC though, if this Royals team turns out better than I’m projecting, he will be the key. Last year, per 9 innings, he averaged 8.1 strikeouts, 2.1 walks, and 1 HR. If he can give the Royals 200 innings, he could have a marquee year. In terms of hitting, I think I’ve really neglected the Indians in this Q&A, and my mind is immediately jumping towards their rockstar shortshop, Francisco Lindor. This guy led the Indians in hits (181), runs (94), and batted a cool .292. He gets on base, a lot, but he also hit 37 doubles and had 86 RBI, so while his initial stats make him look like a contact hitter, in reality he’s just a good hitter. The Indians will need him this year to stay dominant in the division.
In the NL, I actually think this question is tough, because there are a lot of solid arms but no standouts really. Surprisingly enough from 2017, there weren’t any NL Central pitchers except for Jake Arrieta, who left for Philly last week, listed in the top 10 of MLB stats in WAR, ERA, or WHIP (make sure to check out Zac’s great article on the Arrieta signing). Thus, I’d recommend keeping your eye on Zach Davies of the Brew Crew, who last year boasted a 3.3 WAR with 17 wins. If the Brewers can prove last year wasn’t a flash in the pan, especially with all of the defensive help they got in the OF this off-season, I expect Davies to lead the charge. On the offensive side of the diamond, I don’t know how you can reasonably look at anyone besides Kris Bryant. In his 3 years he’s hit .275, .292, and .295, while decreasing strikeouts from 199 to 128 in those 3 seasons. He’s not only one of the most solid hitters in the game, he is also learning as he goes. If I’m a pitcher in the NL Central, I’m scared of how much better Bryant will be this year vs. what he was the past three. Honorable mention goes to Marcell Ozuna with the Cardinals, however, I think this guy could really be a .300 hitter with 30 HRs, who will play in a hitter friendly park for 80 games at Busch Stadium.
Zac: That’s it for the mailbag. Make sure to listen to 3rd String wherever you get your podcasts!
