非對稱風險 — 附錄3 — 詞彙表Glossary
本部分 "非對稱風險 — 附錄3 — 詞彙表Glossary" 屬 " 非對稱風險"一書的附錄詞彙說明，先唸唸了解一些重要概念，對於整本書的研讀會有些幫助。
(1) 尋租：Rent Seeking
企圖在沒有進行經營活動的情況下利用保護政策和“特殊”權力來獲得收入並且維持壟斷利潤。胖子托尼把這種行為看作被迫給黑手黨付保護費，卻無法從中獲得任何經濟利益。
trying to use protective regulations or “rights” to derive income without adding anything to economic activity, without increasing the wealth of others. As Fat Tony would define it, it is like being forced to pay protection money to the Mafia without getting the economic benefits of protection.
(2) 顯示偏好：Revelation of Preferences
這一理論是由美國經濟學家保羅·薩繆爾森提出的（最開始是以公共物品的購買選擇為背景提出的）。這一理論指出代理人無法解釋他們行為背後的原因：行為是可以觀察的，想法卻不可以，因此想法無法作為嚴謹的科學研究的依據。在經濟學中，實驗需要真實存在的資料。胖子托尼總結道：“空談無用。”
the theory, originating with Paul Samuelson (initially in the context of choice of public goods), that agents do not have full access to the reasoning behind their actions; actions are observables, while thought is not, which prevents the latter from being used for rigorous scientific investigation. In economics, experiments require an actual expenditure by the agent. Fat Tony’s summary is “tawk is always cheap.”
(3) 監管套利：Regulatory Capture
代理人鑽規章制度的空子導致其偏離原始的意圖。一些官僚和生意人的收入可能與保護性的規章制度以及特許權有關，因此他們維護這些制度。值得我們注意的是制定規章制度比修正或取消它們容易得多。
situations where regulations end up being “gamed” by an agent, often in divergence from the original intent of the regulation. Some bureaucrats and businesspersons may owe part of their income to protective regulations and franchises, and lobby for them. Note that regulations are easier to put in than to correct and remove.
(4) 唯科學主義：Scientism
該主義認為科學只是看起來像科學。但是這一主義太強調表面的東西而忽視了其值得深思的內部邏輯。這一主義盛行於用數量指標衡量貢獻大小的行政官員之中，同樣也盛行於只愛空談而不參與實踐的人之中，比如記者和學校老師。
the belief that science looks … like science, with too much emphasis on the cosmetic aspects, rather than its skeptical machinery. It prevails in domains with administrators judging contributions according to metrics. It also prevails in domains left to people who talk about science without “doing,” such as journalists and schoolteachers.
(5) 天真的理性主義：Naive Rationalism
該主義認為我們能夠保證世界的正常運行並且不存在我們無法理解的事物。
Belief that we have access to what makes the world work and that what we don’t understand doesn’t exist.
(6) 常春藤名校畢業生：Intellectual Yet Idiot
傻瓜。
an idiot.
(7) 偽理性主義：Pseudo-rationalism
（1）只集中關注某一信仰的理性而不關注其影響；
（2）使用糟糕的概率模型天真地批判人們在進行某種活動時的非理性。
1) focusing on the rationality of a belief rather than its consequences, 2) the use of bad probabilistic models to naively decry people’s “irrationality” when they engage in a certain class of actions.
(8) 代理問題：Agency Problem
代理人與委託人之間的利益不一致時出現的問題，比如汽車銷售員和你（可能的買主）之間的關係，或者醫生和病人之間的關係。
misalignment of interest between the agent and the principal, say between the car salesman and you (the potential owner), or between the doctor and the patient.
(9) 羅伯特·魯賓的勾當：Bob Rubin Trade
在非對稱的領域內獲取利益，通常收益是很明顯的（並且還會獲得一些補償），然而損害卻很少見（由於沒有“風險共擔”也不會受到懲罰）。這一模式可以應用到政治學等任何領域，在這些領域內往往懲罰很小，受害者也不是真實存在的而是分散的（比如納稅人和股票持有人）。
payoff in a skewed domain where the benefits are visible (and rewarded with some compensation) and the detriment is rare (and unpunished owing to absence of skin in the game). Can be generalized to politics, anything where the penalty is weak and the victims are abstract and distributed (say taxpayers or shareholders).
(10) 干涉主義者：Interventionista
干涉主義者往往認為自己瞭解所有情況反而造成脆弱。干涉主義者自身不承擔風險，往往缺少幽默感。
someone who causes fragility because he thinks he understands what’s going on. He is not exposed to the filter and discipline of skin in the game. Also, usually lacks sense of humor.
(11) 綠色木材謬誤：Green Lumber Fallacy
也就是人們將一種必要知識（木材的綠色）的來源錯當成另一種來源，後一種來源對外行人來說更不可測、更難捉摸、更難闡述。理論家如何錯誤地估計在某一特定業務中我們應知的重要性？更通俗地說，許多我們稱作“相關知識”的事物其實並不那麼相關。
mistaking the source of important or even necessary knowledge — the greenness of lumber — for another, less visible from the outside, less tractable one. How theoreticians impute wrong weights to what one should know in a certain business, or, more generally, how many things we call “relevant knowledge” aren’t so much so.
(12) 教鳥兒如何飛行效應：Lecturing-Birds-How-to-Fly Effect
顛倒了閱讀學術知識→實踐與實習→創造財富的箭頭方向，這一效應認為技術更依賴於學術知識而不是實踐。詳情見《反脆弱》一書。
inverting the arrow of knowledge to read academia ➝ practice, or education ➝ wealth, to make it look as though technology owes more to institutional science than it actually does. See Antifragile.
(13) 林迪效應：Lindy Effect
不同于自然消亡的事物（比如人類、貓、狗、經濟理論、番茄），像技術、思想、公司這樣不會自然消亡的事物生命每增加一天，意味著更長的預期剩餘壽命。因此一本有100年歷史的經典圖書只要保證正常的銷量，很有可能還有100年的壽命。
when a technology, idea, corporation, or anything nonperishable has an increase in life expectancy with every additional day of survival — unlike perishable items (such as humans, cats, dogs, economic theories, and tomatoes). So a book that has been a hundred years in print is likely to stay in print another hundred years — provided its sales remain healthy.
(14) 遍歷性：Ergodicity
在本書的語境下，遍歷性是指對一群人在同一時間的統計特性（尤其是期望）和一個人在其全部時間的統計特性一致。集合概率接近於時間概率。如果沒有遍歷性，那麼觀測到的統計特性就不能應用於某一個交易策略，如果應用的話，就會觸發“爆倉(毀滅)”風險（系統記憶體在著“吸收壁”或“爆倉點”）。換句話說，統計特性不可持續。
In our context here, ergodicity holds when a collection of players have the same statistical properties (particularly expectation) as a single player over time. Ensemble probabilities are similar to time probabilities. Absence of ergodicity makes the risk properties not directly transferable from observed probability to the payoff of a strategy subjected to ruin (or any absorbing barrier or “uncle point”) — in other words, not probabilistically sustainable.
(15) 平均斯坦：Mediocristan
一個事物的過程主要由平均值主導，很少有極端成功或失敗的例子（比如牙醫的收入）。個體不會對整體造成很大的影響，它也被稱作“薄尾”風險，也是高斯分佈的一種。
a process dominated by the mediocre, with few extreme successes or failures (say, income for a dentist). No single observation can meaningfully affect the aggregate. Also called “thin-tailed,” or member of the Gaussian family of distributions.
(16) 極端斯坦：Extremistan
在一個隨機過程中個體會對總體造成巨大的影響（比如作家的收入），它也被稱作“胖尾”風險。它包含分型、冪律等分佈類型。
a process where the total can be conceivably impacted by a single observation (say, income for a writer). Also called “fat-tailed.” Includes the fractal, or power-law, family of distributions. See subexponentiality in the Appendix.
(17) 少數派主導規則：Minority Rule
指一種非對稱現象，即總體行為受到少數人的偏好的支配。吸煙者不可以待在非吸煙區但是不吸煙的人可以待在吸煙區，因此不吸煙的人佔據優勢，這並不是因為他們是大多數，只是因為他們擁有非對稱性優勢。語言、倫理以及宗教的傳播都與少數派主導規則有關。
an asymmetry by which the behavior of the total is dictated by the preferences of a minority. Smokers can be in smoke-free areas but nonsmokers cannot be in smoking ones, so nonsmokers will prevail, not because they are initially a majority, but because they are asymmetric. It is held by the author that languages, ethics, and (some) religions spread by minority rule.
(18) 證偽：Via Negativa
神學和哲學用證偽的方法定義一個事物不是什麼，被認為比肯定的定義更不易形成謬誤。在實際操作中，告誡人們要避免什麼，不做什麼，這個方法在事物有倍增效應和副作用的情況下特別有效。在醫學領域，讓一個人戒煙比對他進行治療或者給他開藥帶來的負面效果少得多。
in theology and philosophy, the focus on what something is not, an indirect definition, deemed less prone to fallacies than via positiva. In action, it is a recipe for what to avoid, what not to do — subtraction, not addition, works better in domains with multiplicative and unpredictable side effects. In medicine, stopping someone from smoking has fewer adverse effects than giving pills and treatments.
(19) 適用性規模：Scalability
當事物的規模發生變化時，它們的性質通常也會突然改變：城市不同於大型的州，大陸也不同於島嶼。當一個群體人數發生變化時，其集體性的行為也會變化。這一觀點支持地方主義，反對不受約束的全球主義。
The qualities of entities change, often abruptly, when they get smaller or larger: cities are different from large states, continents are very different from islands. Collective behavior switches when the size of the groups increases, an argument for localism and against unfettered globalism.
(20) 單一思想文化：Intellectual Monoculture
記者、專業學者，以及其他奴隸在特定事務中不承擔風險，不參與“風險共擔”，由此形成了一個易被人操控且抵抗實證的“好人”團體。如果你和他們的意見相左，你就會被不公正地貼上“普京主義者”“嬰兒屠夫”“種族主義者”等標籤（騙子總是聳人聽聞地拿孩子說事兒）。這就像島嶼越大，其生態多樣性反而越低的道理一樣（詳見《黑天鵝》一書）。
Journalists, academics, and other slaves without skin in the game in a given subject converge to a “bien pensant(因循守舊、思想正統)” mode that can be manipulated and often resists empirical backing. The reason is that penalty from divergence is often penalized with labels such as “Putinist,” “baby killer,” or “racist” (children are always used by charlatans as a sensationalist argument). This is similar to the way ecological diversity decreases when an island gets larger (see The Black Swan).
(21) 美德商品化：Virtue Merchandising
當美德作為一種市場行銷策略時，它就貶值了。在古代，美德是私有的，與當代社會中提倡的“環保運動”式的美德不同。兜售美德的商人通常都是偽君子，而且不包含勇氣、犧牲精神以及不參加“風險共擔”的美德根本就不是美德。中世紀時的聖職買賣允許人們用錢購買教會職務或贖罪券，通過這樣一種行為來洗清罪責，兜售美德與這種行為相似。
the debasing of virtue by using it as a marketing strategy. Classically, virtue needs to be kept private, which clashes with modern “save the environment”–style messages. Virtue merchandisers are often hypocrites. Further, virtue devoid of courage, sacrifice, and skin in the game is never virtue. Virtue merchandising is similar to simony, which in the Middle Ages allowed someone of means to buy ecclesiastical positions or indulgences, to expunge his or her sins by payment.
(22) 金律（對稱性）：Golden Rule (symmetry)
以你想被對待的方式去對待他人。
Treat others the way you would like them to treat you.
(23) 銀律(用否定其對立面的方式體現金律)：Silver Rule (negative golden rule)
如果你不希望別人這樣對你，那你也不要這樣對別人（己所不欲勿施於人）。要注意銀律和金律的區別，銀律可以阻止愛管閒事的人來操控你的生活。
Do not do to others what you would not like them to do to you. Note the difference from the Golden Rule, as the silver one prevents busybodies from attempting to run your life.
(24) 善意原則：Principle of Charity
在知識辯論中尋求一種對稱，就像你希望你的論點被對方準確陳述那樣，你也應當準確地陳述對方的論點。與之相反的是“稻草人謬誤”。(稻草人謬誤是一種非形式謬誤，指的是歪曲對方的論點，針對曲解後的論點（替身稻草人）攻擊，再宣稱已推翻對方論點的論證方式)。
Exercise symmetry in intellectual debates; represent the argument of the opponent as accurately as you would like yours to be represented. The opposite of “strawman.”
