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Vinod B
Politics, Policy, Economics, & Data
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GameStop Was Always A Bubble That Further Proves Stories Run the World
GameStop Was Always A Bubble That Further Proves Stories Run the World
The 17th century was the height of Dutch power, known as the Dutch Golden Age, that saw the Netherlands excel in trade, art, and military…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Feb 14
The Biden Administration Represents Democrats’ Best Chance in Years to Push Their Agenda
The Biden Administration Represents Democrats’ Best Chance in Years to Push Their Agenda
The Long Night from Game of Thrones was one of the most memorable episodes of television ever. In the face of an impossible onslaught of…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Feb 5
Lockdowns Are Not the Answer to Contain COVID-19; Mass Testing & Contract Tracing Are
Lockdowns Are Not the Answer to Contain COVID-19; Mass Testing & Contract Tracing Are
It is clear that the US response to the coronavirus has failed. The number of cases per capita and deaths per capita in the country is one…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Dec 17, 2020
What Happened with the Polls in 2020?
What Happened with the Polls in 2020?
Forecasting Retrospective
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Nov 30, 2020
Early Election Results vs. the Final Forecast and a Quick Look Ahead
Early Election Results vs. the Final Forecast and a Quick Look Ahead
With the early results in, it is clear that the election is closer than the expected results from our forecast. It appears that polls…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Nov 3, 2020
Final Election Forecast: What Will Happen in the President and Senate Elections on November 3, 2020
Final Election Forecast: What Will Happen in the President and Senate Elections on November 3, 2020
In previous posts we provided detailed senate and presidential forecasts for the upcoming elections on November 3.
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Nov 2, 2020
Forecasting Who Will Win the Presidency in 2020
Forecasting Who Will Win the Presidency in 2020
The 2020 election is rightly seen as a defining moment in American politics. Biden and Trump each have vastly different visions and plans…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Oct 28, 2020
Forecasting Who Will Win the Senate in 2020
Forecasting Who Will Win the Senate in 2020
The Answer is Key to the Future of American Democracy
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Oct 28, 2020
What Will Happen to the Supreme Court Now With Ruth Bader Ginsberg Gone?
What Will Happen to the Supreme Court Now With Ruth Bader Ginsberg Gone?
Short Term, Not Much Will Be Different; Long Term It Is Still A Structural Deficiency
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Sep 20, 2020
Statistics Explain Trump’s Campaign Strategy
Statistics Explain Trump’s Campaign Strategy
Joe Biden has very little chance of losing the national popular vote. No candidate with a double digit lead at the end of July has ever…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Aug 21, 2020
Even With Huge Polling Leads for Biden, The Electoral College Still Favors Trump
Even With Huge Polling Leads for Biden, The Electoral College Still Favors Trump
US Presidential Elections are currently run under the Electoral College system, which consists of individual popular vote contests in each…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Jul 19, 2020
The Recent Protests Won’t (and Haven’t) Changed Political Behavior
The Recent Protests Won’t (and Haven’t) Changed Political Behavior
The tragic death of George Floyd has offset racial protests across the US and around the world. It has sparked much needed discussion of…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Jul 13, 2020
Democrats: Plans, not Polls, Must Win Election
Democrats: Plans, not Polls, Must Win Election
Democrats are bullish about the election. Prominent Republicans like Colin Powell have endorsed Joe Biden. Recent national polls have…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Jun 25, 2020
The World of COVID-19 Should Make Us Rethink Higher Education
The World of COVID-19 Should Make Us Rethink Higher Education
Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education
Vinod Bakthavachalam
May 31, 2020
Bernie Sanders Will Lose Because He Didn’t Do the Main Job of a Politician: Forecasting the Rest of
Bernie Sanders Will Lose Because He Didn’t Do the Main Job of a Politician: Forecasting the Rest of
On March 3 (Super Tuesday), Biden outperformed expectations; he also outperformed expectations in most states on March 10, trouncing…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Mar 11, 2020
The Data Says Bernie Sanders is a Strong Candidate
The Data Says Bernie Sanders is a Strong Candidate
The central question roiling the Democratic primary today is whether Bernie Sanders is electable. Many pundits and even Democratic party…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Mar 10, 2020
Swing Voters are Not Dead: They Decide Elections
Swing Voters are Not Dead: They Decide Elections
The Democratic Primary has reopened the electability debate among Democrats on who is best positioned to beat Trump in 2020. Do they…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Mar 9, 2020
How The Supreme Court Heightens Voter Polarization
How The Supreme Court Heightens Voter Polarization
A structural deficiency in American politics
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Feb 23, 2020
The Central Problem of Criminal Justice Reform
The Central Problem of Criminal Justice Reform
It has to do with data science and incentives
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Feb 9, 2020
Trump’s Foreign Policy Playbook: All Stick no Carrot
Trump’s Foreign Policy Playbook: All Stick no Carrot
A standard rule in negotiation is to come prepared with three things: (1) an overall goal, (2) a range of outcomes you are willing to…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Jan 13, 2020
Monopsony in Labor Markets: An Under Discussed Cause of Inequality
Monopsony in Labor Markets: An Under Discussed Cause of Inequality
Monopolies are generally agreed upon as bad things because they lead to higher prices, less supply, and lower innovation. The US has an…
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Nov 3, 2019
Who Will Win the 2020 Presidential Election?
Who Will Win the 2020 Presidential Election?
A Comprehensive Look at the Data
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Oct 13, 2019
The Digital Divide in the United States
The Digital Divide in the United States
An Undiscussed Issue
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Oct 8, 2019
A Major Problem for Progressives
A Major Problem for Progressives
A case study in rent control
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Oct 2, 2019
How to Adjust to the Real Economic Impact of AI (and Labor Market Disruptions in General)
How to Adjust to the Real Economic Impact of AI (and Labor Market Disruptions in General)
In previous posts we reviewed the impact of globalization and (likely) impact of AI on the economy.
Vinod Bakthavachalam
Sep 7, 2019
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