Monday Digest #80
Weekly summary of finance, economic and tech news. Vision from Russia. With 💜
The European Central Bank left rates on the credits and deposits without change. QE volume has also remained. The regulator has also excluded increase of rates in the short term — they will stay at the current or lower level for a long time.
It is difficult for now to fully estimate the consequences of an exit of Great Britain from the EU therefore ECB waits for new forecasts to understand a situation “in the next months”.
The total “hole” in the capital of the Russian banks which have lost licenses since the beginning of year is 350 billion rubles.
“Vneshprombank” acts as the champion: it has the “hole” more than 210 billion rubles.
*Since the beginning of the year 55 banks have lost licenses, 49 of them were participants of a deposit insurance system.
The exchange rate of Turkish lira has fallen to a record minimum.
The risk-off is coming (the situation when investors prefer to invest in risk-free reliable assets) in Asia and in the East >> It will be reflected in Europe, Germany, Poland.
Kommersant: The IMF has worsened the forecast of growth of world economy for 2016 and 2017 on 0,1 items in comparison with a former assessment — from 3,2% to 3,1% and from 3,5% to 3,4% respectively.
Since the beginning of this year market capitalization of 20 world largest banks has dropped by $465 billion. Stock price of Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, UniCredit has fallen more than twice this year. According IMF, Deutsche Bank poses greatest risk to global financial system.
#macro #finance
Venezuela endures a serious economic crisis against fall of the oil prices.
Growth of consumer prices in the country following the results of the current year can constitute 480%, and in the next year to exceed 1640%, predicts the IMF.
The country has become dependent on import of food, drugs and other essential goods.
In Venezuela begins hunger >> it may cause disorders. Perhaps, in the moment it mey become the trigger upward for oil.
The markets are cyclic: in the USA the bubble in the real estate market is again inflated, however now in the center of attention not residential, but commercial real estate.
In 2015 more than 400 banks have shown more than 50% 3-year growth of portfolios of the credits in this sphere.
180 of 400 organizations have shown in general 100% growth, and it is even more.
For the last month, from June 20 to July 20, deposit rates in dollars and euro have fallen.
Profitability of the deposits was reduced by six of 15 largest banks.
>> procedure of coercion to risk, to ruble deposits, continues.
Politically it is right, however from the point of view of risk management it is necessary to have currency diversification
#commodities
According to S&P Global Platts the oil demand in China in May has dropped by 2,7% to 10,88 million barrels a day.
MEA has reduced the demand on oil forecast in China on 50 thousand barrels a day.
Growth by 275 thousand during 2016 is expected, and in 2017 results will be even weaker.
We will remind that China is close to completion of campaign for replenishment of the strategic oil reserves. By the end of June SPR have been filled almost completely. It means that China doesn’t need to import additional amounts, and import can drop by 15%.
If to remember that China acted as the moving power of an oil demand the last 10 years, this fact can be reflected very painfully in balance of the market of “black gold”.
Goldman Sachs: Low cost of oil from the Russian fields will allow to bring production to 11,65 million barrels of oil by the end of 2018.
The number of the working drilling rigs in the States has reached a bottom and shows growth the seventh week in a row. Besides, experts note that performance of drilling rigs has very strongly grown.
Preparing for the new shale boom?
Having endured two years of low prices, the oil companies prepare for the third, trying to be protected from recession renewal. Laredo Petroleum Inc. company have declared on July 14 hedging more than 2 million barrels of products in 2017. Oil producers have increased rates on hedge strategies that can protect them from a collapse in prices, against fall of cost of an oil barrel for 29% this year.
Since the beginning of 2015 85 North American oil producers and gas have gone bankrupt, witness data of Haynes & Boone law company. Hedging became one of major “lifebuoys” for the companies that have managed to avoid bankruptcy, touched dozens of their competitors.
#interesting
Against an exit of Great Britain from the EU the rate of pound has strongly fallen to the Japanese yen therefore purchase of the English companies looks very attractively today. The third largest Japanese corporation SoftBank Group has decided to use this fact — the company will redeem the producer of mobile processors ARM Holdings.
In Japan official launch of Pokemon Go has taken place.
Since July 15 McDonald’s has begun to sell at the Japanese restaurants of a toy in the form of Pokemons in the Happy Meal.
After that shares of the Japanese division of the company have grown by 23%, growth of stocks of McDonald’s Japan became record since July, 2001.
Sberbank (the largest Russian Bank) will help to catch Pokemons by “pokestops” at departments and will insure fo free players of PokemonGo.
To attract game fans are going in some salons of “MegaFon”, and in “M.Video” the special offer works: if to photograph the Pokemon against a network logo, then it is possible to receive the coupon on purchase in shop.
Plans for the next 10 years at Facebook: connection to the Internet of inhabitants of the whole world, development of drones for transfer of an Internet signal, artificial intelligence, the robot butler, boats, virtual and augmented reality.
Snapchat has submitted the patent application to technology which recognizes a subject on a photo, determines in what context it is usually mentioned and selects advertising which concerns to him.
It is similar to placements in search requires, but in visual sense.
Unilever will purchase a startup on delivery of razors. According to Fortune, Unilever offers $1 billion cash.
#opinion [Press]
Stock Exchange #103 of 18th July, 16
Euronews. Alex Butmanov: When the cost of hedge is cheap, it provokes you to become more riskier.
Live on Russian Finance TV Stream (Euronews). Aleksandr Butmanov, Managing Partner, Founder & CEO at Dream Team investments, advised to hedge your position in SnP500 index in 2200 point. Besides, Alex Butmanov gave trading ideas on USDRUB, Oil (HFS company) and consumer sector (Foot Locker company). To discover it and to count yourself among the first to be able to take advantage of this opportunity, just watch this video.
