WFAD #13

Brent & $AAL

These trading ideas were generated by #crowd DreamTeam Investments platform based on principles of #Prediction_Markets. Also, they were approved by Dorofeev Mikhail, head of the analytical department at DTI, PhD, associated professor of finance and prices department in Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.


First idea is cautious selling the correction of Crude oil (Brent) (see pic. 1).

Pic. 1. Crude oil (Brent). 4 hours. (Forecast)

The result is shown on the pic. 2

Pic. 2 Crude oil (Brent). 4 hours. (Results)

The initial Elliot wave plan was based on the idea of trading corrective descending wave. We thought Crude oil price will decline only to 48. But yesterday it closed at 46.99. The picture and initial plan have changed, because Brent price broke critical level, marked with red line and «X» under Uptrend on the pic. 1.

Profit from this recommendation = appr. +4.9% in 12 days (+147% annually).

The lesson is =>

  1. Do not think that any technique can help you to predict the future with 100% accuracy. Market will always break all the techniques sooner or later.


The second idea was buying American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stocks. This idea was inspired by EWA theory and was based on buying the end of probable 4-th wave of impulse with attempt to catch the 5-th one (see pic. 3).

Pic. 3. American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL). Daily + 30 min. (Forecast)

We succeeded to catch the end of 4-th wave and were amazed by the power of growth in the 5-th wave. The result you can see on pic 4.

Pic. 3. American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL). 30 min. (Results)

As you can see on the pic. 3, the critical level for 4-th wave was broken, so the wave picture became not valid. At the same time, such significant growth after gapping down and strong price recovery gave us a hope, that this ascending movement will continue the next day as well. Basic plan supposed the continuation of growth up to 38.7. That is why we tried to hold this deal.

The next day was very disappointing. Unfortunately, the price of AAL made V-top pattern and combination of full descending impulse and full correction after that. When we realized, that it was an impulsive wave down, we stopped the trade.

Profit from this recommendation = appr. +1.52% in 2 days (+273.6% annually).

The lesson is =>

  1. Sometimes holding excellent positions may be a mistaken.
  2. Taking profit is difficult issue as well as the proper control of your risks.
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