WFAD #40
$NG1! & $DAL
$NG1!
Natural gas futures, $NG1!
The first idea was to buy sell futures of Natural gas ($NG1!). It was one of our trading recommendations on RBC-TV (on Wednesday, see below).
The result is shown on pic 2.
Our plan was to take a correction to ascending impulse. Active model was a double top (2-top.) pattern. Minimal target level for active bearish model was 2.891. We expected that this correction would be at least 9 days long (considering the length of the previous up move) and would retrace approximately 38–50% of bullish impulse.
The entry was excellent, both timing and levels. Very soon 2-top. target was reached. The picture looked unfinished (very short timing of correction).
20–03–2017 became a turning point for this market and the price of $NG futures started rising again. That day we saw that local bullish reversal pattern (H&S-bot.) was forming in this market. We instantly moved our stop to critical level (slightly above the blue neckline). Then market broke the base of H&S-bot. (blue line) and stopped our trade.
We made a mistake in this case. We projected our final target based on FIBO-levels, but the potential of bearish 2-top. was not enough to reach it successfully. To tell the truth, it was a luck that we left the market with profit.
Profit from this recommendation = +0.5% in 5 days (+36% annually)
The lesson is =>
- If market behaves unexpectedly (not according to your plan), be flexible, stop or reverse as soon as you have enough evidence that your idea was cancelled.
- Take profit based on moving potential of active patterns, not on your feelings or expectations.
$DAL
Delta Air Lines, Inc., $DAL
Services | Major Airlines | USA
Second trading idea was buying stocks of Delta Air Lines, Inc. ($DAL) (see pic. 3).
The result is shown on the pic 4.
According to our strategy, we sought buy opportunities, because the whole sector was making a correction to the major uptrend. So, we bought $DAL, when its price made an impulsive move up, then formed the bullish flag and broke out of it. The entry was made when $DAL retraced to the higher line of the bullish flag.
The next two days were rather disappointing, because $DAL price gapped down significantly and then stopped our trade with a loss. Market was weak and that is an example of a false bullish flag. We didn’t start selling, because it didn’t fit into our strategy for Major Air Lines industry.
Loss from this recommendation = -2.32% in 3 days (-278.4% annually)
The lesson is =>
1. Market doesn’t care about your strategy, trading tactics, expectations and etc. Always be ready for the worst scenario. Manage your risks properly.
