Crypto Has an Uncertain Future, and I’m All-In
“We are, as I am writing these lines, witnessing a complete riot against some class of experts, in domains that are too difficult for us to understand, such as macroeconomic reality, and in which not only is the expert not an expert, but he doesn’t know it.”
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Foreword of “The Bitcoin Standard”, written by Saifedean Ammos
Everybody in crypto has their entry story. I decided it’s time I tell mine.
I first peeked at crypto at the beginning of 2017 after hearing certain buzzwords like “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” and not knowing anything about what those words meant. I try to stay cultured on “popular” topics in an effort to have something to contribute should they ever come up in a conversation with somebody. I read a couple of articles and decided cryptoassets were just some form of weird “internet money”. So I moved on.
A couple months later, in early Spring of 2017, I noticed cryptoasset prices were starting to climb. Given my background in finance, I found the high volatility (relative to other asset classes) extremely interesting. I couldn’t help but wonder, what was driving it? I decided to make an initial small investment so I had some “skin in the game”, despite not fully understanding what I actually bought (ether, the native coin of Ethereum, because I of course felt I missed the boat on Bitcoin back then). Why was this “internet money” becoming such a big deal?
It wasn’t long after that, that I fell in love with crypto and blockchain technology because they are so interdisciplinary and multi-faceted. The journey led me to study computer science, finance, game theory, history, governance, economics, quantity theory of money, statistics, networks, geopolitics and so much more. I also got to apply mental models such as psychology, behavioral finance, evolutionary systems, decision making under uncertainty and pathologic compensatory mechanisms, as well as quantitative models and frameworks such as simulations and the equation of exchange. I decided to purchase and read the book “Cryptoassets” by Chris Burniske and Jack Tatar, which only fueled my appreciation and curiosity for this emerging world.
The journey also enabled me to join a socioeconomic, paradoxical global movement where for the first time in many, many years, we are experimenting with, and in the works of, redefining our existing ways, notably trust, governance and even money itself. We are undergoing a societal paradigm shift on a global scale.
It’s important to mention that it wasn’t just the technology that caught my attention with crypto, but the people too. Along the way, left and right, I was watching remarkable passion-driven talent step into crypto with the desire to help each other figure this out. From Wall Street executives to engineers to tech entrepreneurs, some of the brightest minds I had ever seen were joining in the march. This only strengthened my conviction that there was something in this asset class worth looking at.
The question thus became not “if” but “when”, in regards to migrating out of my comfortable traditional finance career and into crypto full time. I knew I was passionate and interested (rather, obsessed) enough to pivot my career, but I wasn’t sure where I wanted to go or what I wanted to do. Did I want to stay on the investment side? Did I want to join a token project instead?
I wanted to help create the future. Since I’m not an engineer or developer, I realized I wouldn’t be in a worthy position to help build it. On the other hand, I didn’t want to just write a check to fund the creation of the future and then sit back with my fingers crossed hoping it works out. I wanted to contribute in some way, but just didn’t know how.
At the start of 2018, a good friend of mine introduced me to Ryan Selkis, who at the time was launching Messari, a firm looking to build on the mission to promote transparency, content curation and smarter decision-making in the cryptoasset community. Given all the fraud and scams we witnessed in 2017, Messari’s ethical and transparency mission really resonated with me. Thus, I decided joining Messari as a volunteer was a good place for me to start. For those unfamiliar with Messari, I highly suggest you check out all the great work they’re doing for the community here.
In the middle of Q2 2018, another mutual friend (network effects have a funny way of working in crypto) introduced me to Scott Army who presented me with an opportunity to join him in launching Vision Hill, a cryptoasset and blockchain focused fund of funds. It wasn’t long after meeting Scott that I knew he was somebody I wanted to work with, with a strategic opportunity I thought made a lot of sense (for those curious on Scott’s crypto journey, you can read about it here). Yes, we decided to launch an investment fund, but money isn’t what’s driving us. We are driven by a much larger cultural mission for the community. With the support of my loving parents, family and my friends, I made the jump.
While there may be a non-zero chance that Bitcoin and cryptoassets, as we know them today, could fail and fall to $0, I believe there are *at least* two things that Satoshi Nakamoto introduced to the world that are not going away (hence my belief we are truly experiencing the birth of a new asset class, even if it happens in a series of evolutions):
1. A solution to the double-spend problem; and
2. The emergence of defensive technologies whereby the cost of defending property and information is far lower than the cost of attacking them.
What particularly gravitated me toward a fund of funds strategy was the fact that it enables investors to gain exposure to a diversification of different cryptoasset and blockchain technology strategies. It’s a strategy that employs probabilistic decision-making in an uncertain environment. Some strategies will be successful and some won’t. Valuable lessons will be learned with failed strategies, and winning strategies can be fed to grow over time. Most of all, I saw a contribution opportunity emerge; this was an opportunity for me to educate newcomers, both new and veteran investors (individuals and institutions), and even skeptics, and join the community in serving as a bridge from the old world to the new one.
Education here won’t just pertain to “what is blockchain technology, and why is a coin needed?”. It also pertains to communicating approaches to very challenging, unanswered questions in the space.
What is an appropriate benchmark?
Can cryptoassets be fundamentally valued? If so, how?
How do you avoid getting an investment thesis correct, but the trade wrong?
What differentiates a subpar crypto fund manager from a good one (aside from performance)? A good one from a great one?
How will the crypto asset class weather the next macroeconomic recession?
What are repeatable, sustainable, winning investment strategies in this nascent asset class?
In sum, this journey into crypto has completely challenged me on all fronts, and it has been absolutely incredible. Not a day goes by where I don’t learn something new from somebody else. History is being written in real-time. Humankind’s evolution has been a series of informational and technological breakthroughs where we stand on the shoulders of existing giants and serve as shoulders for future ones. While there are many, many challenging unanswered questions ahead of us, I believe as a community, we collectively have the talent to find those answers.
What we aim to build at Vision Hill will be one of my most challenging endeavors yet, and I’m completely ready for it. The future, albeit uncertain, is here, and it is calling. I feel compelled to embrace it. I hope you do too.
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Vision Hill Advisors is an emerging crypto asset and blockchain focused fund of funds. Through a proprietary fund manager selection process and institutional level due diligence, Vision Hill aims to lead investors into the future of digital assets. Vision Hill brings together a team with extensive experience in traditional financial markets, a deep passion and understanding of crypto and digital asset markets, and a history of risk and portfolio management.
Opinions are my own and should not be considered investment advice. The content provided herein is not a recommendation of, or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy, any particular security, strategy, or investment product.
