Taking On Tesla
Increasing range and lowering anxiety for electric vehicles.
By Austin Berry, Nick Ey, and Jay Jayachandran
If you were to name the first electric vehicle (EV) that comes to mind, it’s more than likely that you would, without hesitation, say: “Tesla.” And there would be no fault in saying so! Over the past decade Tesla Motor Company has established itself as the ubiquitous EV manufacturer and has joined the ranks of the automotive elite. And while Tesla does primarily sell cars, its initial crowning achievement falls elsewhere in the automotive industry — the Tesla Supercharger Network.
On the surface this achievement may not seem as impressive as self-driving tech, blistering 0–60 times, or beautifully crafted interiors, but ask yourself the following question: “How many miles can my car travel before refilling?” If you own an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) it is likely this question has never crossed your mind. Gas station infrastructure has matured itself over the past 117 years, with over 145,000 stations littered across the country offering a variety of fuel types for any ICEV (API, 2022.). In stark contrast, there are only 50,631 charging stations available for EV owners to use, which have varying charging rates and levels of availability (NREL, 2022). Locating a gas station isn’t a common concern for ICEV owners but is something that induces varying degrees of anxiety in EV owners.
Range anxiety has become the catch-all term for those concerned with recharging their EV with electrons, rather than gas. EVs present their charge just as a phone would and in a world where we constantly charge our phones, seeing the low battery symbol on an EV evokes a fear of being truly stranded on the side of the road. This range anxiety is not typically experienced by drivers of ICEV but is so prevalent with EV owners that it is now considered a determining factor that prevents many consumers from purchasing an EV.
As an early manufacturer in the EV market, Tesla had the opportunity to build a network that could service their customers for the longevity of their ownership. With 1,572 Level 3 charging stations across the United States (US), the Tesla Supercharger Network directly mitigates range-anxiety, and provides a value proposition to potential buyers that is hard to shake (NREL, 2022.). In fact, the infrastructure of the Tesla Supercharger Network has long been touted as the primary reason to buy a Tesla over other EV competition, whose perceived lack of coordination and failure to adopt a nationwide standard has alienated a large customer base over the past decade. It was with this notion that we, a group of Human-Computer Interaction graduate students at the University of Maryland, sought to study the current state of the EV market. This includes researching charging infrastructures to objectively analyze if Tesla’s grasp on the EV market remained fact or fiction. First, let’s lay some roadwork.
EV Ranges & Prices
While the availability and vast coverage of a reliable charging network remains a prominent concern for those looking to make the switch to EVs, price and vehicle range remain highly influential purchasing decision factors. In recent years, Tesla has seen increased competition from other manufacturers as EVs reach mass market adoption. Legacy brands prominently associated with the ICEV market have begun to manufacture their own EVs, capturing new segments and providing a greater selection of vehicles to EV customers. This influx of variety has led to greater value propositions, enhanced technologies, and ever-increasing range figures across the EV market.
When averaged out one can see the significant range advantages that Tesla’s fleet maintains over its EV competition. On the other hand, the range delta is rapidly decreasing, as other EV manufacturers are introducing newer models that level out the playing field. In fact, when you compare the range of the average non-Tesla EV in 2011 to its 2022 equivalent, the average range has more than tripled from 73 miles to just over 250.
Price is another interesting factor to consider, as we see Tesla’s pricing on a moderate decline with the introduction of more economy-focused models. Meanwhile, we see a slow but steady increase in other manufacturers’ pricing. While this has been impacted by outliers such as the new luxury-focused models from brands like Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche, the declining costs of Tesla models allows us to believe that the EV market is stabilizing as an ever-increasing number of manufacturers begin to offer more competitive vehicles at all price points.
EV Charging Networks
In the past, charging your EV was something you accomplished overnight. Battery charge times were long, and the infrastructure was not prevalent enough to allow you to safely charge your vehicle on the go. But as EV’s have developed, as have their chargers. Level 3 chargers (DC Fast Chargers) are the new kids on the block, capable of delivering between 50 and 350 kilowatts of energy at any given moment — offering 10,000 to 20,000 times more energy than your modern cellphone charger. With that immense throughput, Level 3 charging stations allow customers to recharge their vehicles from empty to 80% in about 30 minutes, which not only extends the realistic range of these vehicles, but also secures them as a worthy alternative to their ICEV counterparts.
As a result of new government programs and subsidies, there are dozens of new charging networks establishing themselves across the country, with Level 3 chargers as the new standard. This developing infrastructure has alleviated range anxiety for many modern-day EV owners and serves as the focus of our research — to track these developments and understand their impacts on the EV charging infrastructure. During our research, we stumbled upon a dataset provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a government organization that has maintained a list of all charging stations across the United States. With this data, our team gained access to charging station locations, networks, and opening dates — the key information needed to begin visualizing trends within the industry.
Although Tesla had the head start in implementing a nationwide Level 3 charging network, we have found that Tesla’s Supercharger Network may no longer be the unique value proposition it once was. Tesla’s previously held advantage over its competitors is dwindling as government programs and subsidies have afforded other charging networks the ability to expand and challenge Tesla.
In December 2022, there were 1,572 Tesla Supercharger Network stations, comparatively, all other networks combined equate to 5,042 Level 3 charging stations (NREL, 2022.). However, there are varying numbers of chargers per charging station, with 10.46 chargers/station for Tesla and 2.11 chargers/station for all other charging networks. Tesla holds a clear advantage over other charging networks as their density of chargers per station alleviates some of the worry for their customers by raising the likelihood that a plug will be available without any wait time.
Throughout the last 5 years, the growth of DC fast charging networks in the US has dramatically accelerated. Since 2018, 5,679 Level 3 chargers have been opened, and states like California have seen tremendous growth in new charging stations with 1,516 installed, accounting for 26.69% of all new stations during that time. As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise in the US, we anticipate that the growth of Level 3 charging networks will follow.
The above Tableau dashboard displays one of the key differences when comparing other EV charging networks with the Tesla Supercharger Network, the dispersion of station locations. Other Level 3 charging networks tend to cluster around highly populated metropolitan areas and provide EV owners with a peace-of-mind that they will always be able to find a station close to home. While the same is true for the Tesla Supercharger Network, it holds another clear advantage in its strategically located stations along the US Interstate Highway System.
However, that is not to say that EVs utilizing networks other than Tesla’s are unable to make cross country road trips. The amount of Level 3 charging stations is currently widespread enough to make cross-country road trips possible with EVs. While it is still true that there are certain routes that are not feasible for cross-country road trips without the Tesla Supercharger Network, our research and subsequent road trip visualization show that they can indeed be achieved using EV charging networks other than Tesla’s.
Cross-country Road Trip
Because range anxiety is a primary concern for consumers looking to make the switch to EVs, we wanted to test the limits of this fear by putting two of the most popular EVs on the market in a head-to-head cross-country competition. A cross-country road trip, while not common, showcases the full capabilities of both manufacturers’ EVs and their respective charging infrastructure performance. We chose to compare Ford’s Mustang Mach-E and Tesla’s Model 3, two competing offerings whose top trims offer similar performance and pricing. The longest-range trim of the Mustang Mach-E is the California Route-1, with a range of 314 miles and an MSRP of $52,775. Similarly, the longest-range trim of the Tesla Model 3 is the aptly named ‘Long Range’ with 353 miles of range and an MSRP of $55,990.
With the competitors selected we determined an appropriately challenging route to test the limits of these EVs — the Cannonball Run, from Red Ball Garage in New York City, NY to The Portofino Hotel & Marina in Redondo Beach, CA. Additionally, we created several general assumptions and charging requirements for both vehicles to adhere to throughout the duration of the simulated journey. We believe that these requirements and assumptions replicate real-world scenarios, while also providing a scientific approach to comparing these two EVs.
General Assumptions
- Start with 100% battery
- Maintain and average speed of 60 MPH
- Available chargers with no wait times
- Most optimal route for each EV & their respective charging network(s)
- Driving Under Perfect Conditions (No Traffic & Fair Weather)
Charging Requirements
- Stop with a minimum of 50 miles of range
- 30 Minutes spent charging (or up to 80% capacity)
-Mach-E (201 Mi) & Model 3 (232 Mi) - Stations must be within 5 miles of the highway
- Utilize only publicly available stations
To build our visualization, we used the PlugShare website’s ‘Trip Planner’ tool in conjunction with the NREL dataset to determine the most efficient routes possible for each competing vehicle. Over a 2,800+ mile journey, we discovered that while the Model 3 did beat the Mach-E from point A to point B, the margins were so slim that a moderate difference in traffic or an extra bathroom break could have led to a different result. The Tesla accomplished the trip with one less charging stop, traveled 10 fewer miles, and arrived in Santa Monica only 30 minutes before the Ford. We believe that these minor differences highlight the impressive characteristics and similarities of both manufacturers and charging infrastructures. But it begs the question — if the competition was so close, is the Tesla Supercharger Network really a selling point anymore?
The answer to this question is — maybe! It goes without saying that our visualization has caveats; we picked a trip that was possible for both vehicles and leveled the playing field by forcing scientific consistency. Optimum travel speeds were not calculated, availability of charging stations at hotels/restaurants was not considered and charging station availability was given the best-possible scenario. If a different route was selected, such as a trip through the northwest, the results may have been entirely different.
Conclusion
Over the past decade, EVs have transformed from luxury two-seat sports cars with eye-watering price tags to consumer-oriented models offering utility, comfort, and convenience. As prices have become more reasonable for the average consumer, the average range of EVs, not manufactured by Tesla, has more than tripled. The US is merely experiencing the beginning of the end of Tesla’s most unique selling proposition, the Tesla Supercharger Network. However, they certainly aren’t slowing down, since the beginning of this project (September 2022), 1,074 new Level 3 charging stations have been built, with 97 of those within the Tesla Supercharger Network (NREL, 2022.). This heavy competition between networks paves the way for a better charging infrastructure and drives the United States closer to its goal of making half of all new vehicles sold in the US in 2030 zero-emission. While the other networks have a long way to go before completely overtaking Tesla, the last decade has proven the undeniable potential of EVs as they pave the way for greener roadways and a cleaner future.
References
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2022). Alternative Fuel Stations, United States, Electric, Public, 1995-present (Custom filters) [Data set]. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center. https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all
Saket Pradhan (2022). Electric & Alternative Fuel Vehicles US, 2022 [Data set]. Kaggle. https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/saketpradhan/alternative-fuel-vehicles-in-the-us
Service Station FAQS. Energy API. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2022, from https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/consumer-information/consumer-resources/service-station-faqs
Trip Planner. PlugShare. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2022, from https://www.plugshare.com/
