Young Voters Will Determine the Next Election
We Saw Massive Turnout Among Young Voters in 2018. That Turnout Could Double.
Young voters are not to be underestimated. The last election made this clear. In 2018, new turnout for young voters doubled, and it’s possible that it will double again.
Their proportion of the voting block will be a lot higher than usual. In fact, young voters between the ages of 18–29 are potentially as large a voting block as baby boomers.
What that means is that anyone who wants to win 2020 will have to spend a significant amount of time reaching out to young voters, which is a big departure from how political candidates have spent their money in the past.
Last May, Vote.org’s Debra Cleaver spoke to Cheddar.tv about young voters and what we learned from our work to engage them in the 2018 midterm elections. You can watch the full clip on Facebook.
So, what do these young voters care about? They’re concerned about climate change. Student loans. Health care. Gun violence. None of this is a surprise — these are the issues that define this generation.
This is also the most diverse generation ever. That’s going to impact the issues that candidates must care about.
All of this begs the question, how do we talk to young voters?
Most partisan groups spend money on broadcast TV. But 50% of people under 45 haven’t watched a single minute of broadcast TV in the past year. So at Vote.org, we don’t spend a dollar on broadcast TV.
Instead, we text voters. We put up billboards. And we blanket their campuses with information compelling students to turn out at the polls.
Here is a bit about what we learned.
2018 Research
Last year, we partnered with FlyteDesk to run the largest political college media campaign ever. We reached nearly 10 million students, and as a result, we saw incredibly high political engagement.
Vote.org placed ads in the college newspapers of 154 schools and then surveyed over 3000 students afterward. Our study revealed high engagement during the midterm elections:
- 85% of students reported being registered to vote, and 77% of students reported voting in the midterms.
- 78% of students who saw Vote.org ads thought political messaging on campus created a positive and engaging environment.
- Students were 7% more enthusiastic about the election after seeing one of our ads.
Bottom line: students were receptive to hearing about elections. But that was just the start. This year, we’re doing even more.
2019 Campus GOTV & Research
This year, Vote.org is running a GOTV effort and a comprehensive experiment in the three states that have 2019 gubernatorial races: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Our goal is to determine if campus advertising has an effect on voter turnout. In each state, we’re treating 50% of the campuses and leaving 50% untreated (the control).
Our academic researcher (Chris Mann, Professor at Skidmore College) designed the experiment, created pairs of like-schools (based on size, demographics, # of students on campus, amount of advertising available, etc), and then randomly selected one campus from each pair to treat.
On the campuses that we’re treating, we’re combining a robust suite of marketing tools, both offline and online. We will have a combination of full-page, full-color newspaper ads, newspaper inserts, newsrack ads, posters around campus, and digital ads. All of our messaging will draw from best practices for voter turnout language to encourage students to register and then turn out to vote.
In addition to the opportunity to increase turnout in the three 2019 gubernatorial races, this opens us up to a world of insights.
We are deepening our knowledge about the potential of campus advertising, influencing GOTV strategy for numerous voter turnout groups and candidates.
We’re also turning out young people in an “off-year”, helping them establish a habit of voting and significantly increasing the likelihood that they’ll turn out in 2020 when all of these three states have key Senate races.
What it all means
Everything we learned in 2018, and everything we’re testing in 2019, will inform our massive 2020 voter turnout program.
We’ll take the lessons from these experiments back to campus in 2020 to continue to engage young voters. We will continue to engage underserved populations, such as young people and people of color, with our GOTV efforts, to inspire them to get to the voting booth.
If this work inspires you, consider contributing to support it. Together, we can hit the highest voter turnout ever seen among underrepresented groups in our American electorate.
