Wai Brazil? 2026 World Cup Too-Early Preview
This Brazilian team was littered with young, promising stars. That is why it’s fair to predict they will be one of the premier favorites, again. Vinicius, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus, Lucas Paqueta, Richarlison, Antony, Raphinha, Eder Militao, Gabriel Martinelli, Bremer, Pedro, and Bruno Guimaraes are all 25 years of age or younger. In addition, the pipeline from Brazil to the European leagues is still strong, with news coming out last month of Real Madrid spending 60 million euros on 16-year-old Endrick from Palmeiras. These are all encouraging signs, but the truth is that Brazil fell short of the goal in 2022. How can that be changed?
The main talking point in the loss to Croatia was the lack of control in midfield. Brazil played with four attackers, leaving Casemiro and Paqueta outnumbered in the midfield by Modric, Kovacic, and Brozovic. When Brazil pressed, Croatia were too often able to use their midfield to release pressure and get their wide players the ball in space. It wasn’t that Croatia scared Brazil with their attacks, but it was the release and control of the game that minimized Brazil’s lethal attacking opportunities. Every time Brazil were taking the momentum and pinning Croatia back, somehow Croatia found a release and time on the ball. This trend was time that took away from Brazil getting in a rhythm and creating more chances. The game got muddy and though Brazil still managed 2.55 xG (expected goals) from their shots, it felt as if Croatia had successfully diminished Brazil’s attack enough that they wouldn’t break through. In recent times, Brazil seems to have become a team that needs to create loads of space and obvious chances to score multiple goals in a game.
This leaves me pondering, would a 4–3–3 approach solidify Brazil for these tough World Cup knockout rounds? Another team in this World Cup used four attackers: France. If you watched their game against England, a similar story played out to even more effectiveness for the opponent. England statistically won that game. Unfortunately for them, Tchouaméni had the shot of his life and France had a true number 9 on their team. France was more worried in their game than Brazil was. Brazil might get more luck, like France did, in the next World Cup, but in an attempt to not rely on that, let’s theorize what could lead to a more solid but lethal Brazil team. The key to a 4–3–3 that is balanced but still very threatening going forward is a ruthless front three and attacking contributions from either the midfield or the fullbacks.
Historically, Brazil has had some of the best attacking fullbacks, but as of now, it is the most shallow part of the national team’s talent pool. Currently, the options there are decent, but not great like the Dani Alves, Marcelo, Roberto Carlos, or Cafu of past Brazil teams. As far as young prospects for the next four years goes, maybe Emerson Royal of Tottenham could gain more composure, Yan Couto’s loan moves from Manchester City bear fruit, or young Vinicius Tobias of Real Madrid’s Castilla can break through at Right Back. At Left Back, it seemed last year there was a sure candidate in Renan Lodi, but in recent years his club career has stagnated and Brazil is still looking for another young shining prospect to come onto the world scene. In attempts to gain help from midfield, the outlook is more encouraging. In a 4–3–3, moving Paqueta up the field to attacking midfielder would allow the presence of another midfielder. Paqueta was one of the shining points for this Brazil team. If there has been one position lacking this decade, it has been in the attacking midfield. While a team like Croatia has had Modric, Brazil has seen quite a drought in the ball-playing midfielder. With Paqueta, Brazil saw a few amazing one-touch passes and assists this World Cup, like the one leading Neymar’s goal against Croatia. If he can continue to grow and be more consistent, Brazil can focus on filling the defensive midfield position with its large talent pool and look to finding a true, talented box-to-box midfielder to complete the trio. Currently, Fred has been the designated midfielder next to Casemiro, but his time is running short. Bruno Guimaraes is already playing in the Premier League, but Andrey Santos of Vasco de Gama and Danilo of Palmeiras are both very young, talented prospects and should be making the jump to Europe soon. Personally, I would look here, in midfield, for the future. It is more likely that Brazil continues to be more practical about the fullback positions and the talent existing there. With the emergence of Paqueta, a deep defensive midfield talent pool, and the rising young box-to-box midfielders, I could see a strong midfield trio helping move Brazil into the future.
The final ingredient to this theoretically balanced Brazil is a ruthless front three. If you’re going to play three attackers instead of four, those front three need to be that much better. The talent is amazingly deep and growing at the front of the pitch for Brazil, but actually scoring goals, rather than just creating chances, is most important. In recent times, the team has had many creators, but relied too much on Neymar to create the final product. There are great signs with Vinicius, Rodrygo, Antony, and even Gabriel Martinelli scoring goals with their club teams, but to be honest, none have shown the ability to be league leaders yet. Something often not mentioned is, Brazil always brings attacking talents, but the teams that truly get it done are the ones with pure goal scorers. The five times Brazil has won the World Cup, they’ve all featured a player who could score 30 goals in a club season: Pele (1958–1970 teams), Romário (1994 team), and Ronaldo (2002 team). A World Cup is not won by the most talented team. It is won in big moments and often, like against Croatia, it is the team who makes the most of their chances. A proven goal scorer, or even just a proven number 9, could get Brazil over the hump. Could a 16-year-old Endrick be Brazil’s next biggest hope? Can Vinicius Jr. become the clinical superstar that puts him in the same conversation as Mbappe and Haaland for future best player in the world? Could Richarlison’s club career give him the chance to be a lone striker? Regardless of what their formation is, I think these are the biggest questions for Brazil moving forward. If one more of those chances against Croatia goes Brazil’s way, Brazil would still be playing.
